تحلیل تکنیکال David_financial_analyst درباره نماد PAXG در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۳/۱۶

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dtAigcf8/With the May U.S. employment report set to be released on Friday (June 6), global investors and economists are once again focusing on the latest developments in the U.S. labor market. This report will not only reveal the current health of the U.S. economy, but may also provide important clues for future monetary policy and economic trends. The importance of this report is even more prominent as the U.S. labor market is showing initial signs of slowing down amid increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment.Initial signs of a slowdown in the labor marketThe U.S. labor market has recently shown signs of weakness, and the latest data provides evidence of this trend. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 247,000 last week, the highest level in seven months. The rise in this number indicates that some workers are losing their jobs and companies are becoming more cautious about hiring new employees. In addition, unofficial statistics from the private sector further show that companies' willingness to hire is gradually declining, which is closely related to the uncertainty brought about by the rapidly changing tariff policy. The new tariff policy has caused companies to worry about future profitability and market environment, thereby slowing down the pace of expansion.Rising layoffs and cautious corporate mentalityIn addition to the increase in the number of first-time unemployment claims, Challenger, Gray & Christmas' monthly survey report provides more evidence of the weakness of the labor market. The report shows that the number of layoffs in the United States reached 94,000 in May 2025, a significant increase from 64,000 in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 47% year-on-year. More worryingly, the number of layoffs in American companies has surged by 80% this year compared with the same period last year. This trend reflects that companies tend to respond to potential economic risks by cutting labor costs when facing policy uncertainties. However, as Don Rissmiller, an economist at research firm Strategas, pointed out, despite the increase in layoffs, companies have not yet taken large-scale layoffs, but have more suspended recruitment plans, which has made it significantly more difficult for workers to find new job opportunities.Differences between ADP report and official dataADP's monthly employment survey provides another perspective for the market. Data showed that only 37,000 new jobs were added in the private sector in the United States in May, the lowest increase in more than two years in the report. Although many economists believe that there is a certain deviation between the predictive power of the ADP report and official labor market data, this sluggish figure undoubtedly reinforces market concerns about the weakness of the labor market. Rees Miller said that the current data shows that there are "small cracks, not big cracks" in the labor market, suggesting that the economy has not yet fallen into a serious recession, but the growth momentum is weakening.Expectations and differences in the May employment reportAccording to a survey of analysts by the Wall Street Journal, the market generally expects the U.S. Department of Labor to release the May employment report to show 125,000 new jobs, lower than the average increase of 155,000 in the previous three months. At the same time, analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, partly due to the reduction in net immigration during the Trump administration, which has limited the supply of the labor market. However, Jonathan Millar, a U.S. economist at Barclays, has a different view. He predicts that the number of new jobs in May will reach 150,000, citing the sharp increase in U.S. imports earlier this year and the accumulation of corporate inventories that have not yet been fully affected by the new tariff policy. Miller pointed out that these inventories will be gradually consumed in the future, which may put pressure on subsequent economic activity and the job market.The delicate game between the Fed's policy and economic balanceOver the past year, the U.S. labor market has experienced a process from weakening in the first half of the year to gradually stabilizing, with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4% and 4.2%. For the Fed, the current employment situation seems to be in a state of balance, which is also an important basis for its decision to suspend interest rate cuts this year after a cumulative interest rate cut of one percentage point in the last few months of 2024. However, this balance is not stable. Barclays' Miller said that despite the difficulties faced by companies, most still tend to avoid layoffs, which provides a certain resilience to the labor market. But he also warned that as inventories are gradually digested and the impact of tariff policies gradually emerges, the labor market may face greater pressure in the future.Analysis of the impact on the US dollar and gold pricesOn the whole, the upcoming May employment report will become an important indicator for the market to judge the direction of the US economy. If the report shows that the number of new jobs is significantly lower than expected, it may further exacerbate market concerns about the slowdown of the US economy, thereby exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Weak employment data may trigger the market to reassess the Fed's future monetary policy and may even rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts, which will weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar.For gold prices, a weak labor market is usually good for gold as a safe-haven asset. If the employment report performs poorly, coupled with the impact of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies, investors may increase their allocation to gold, pushing up gold prices. However, if the report shows that the labor market is more resilient than expected, the US dollar may be supported and gold prices may face short-term correction pressure. In general, the May employment report is not only a "big test" for the US labor market, but also an important turning point for the global financial market. Investors need to pay close attention to the results of the report and the market reaction it triggers to grasp the future trend of the US dollar and gold prices. 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