robofi

High demand for privacy: With increasing regulation and privacy concerns, Monero's anonymity features are highly sought after.Protection against quantum hacking: The upcoming FCMP++ upgrade will significantly enhance the network's resistance to potential attacks from quantum computers.Use in covert operations: Monero's utilization for laundering large sums (e.g., after the $330M Bitcoin theft) highlights its effectiveness in ensuring anonymity.Increased miner activity: Monero mining has reached an all-time high, signaling heightened interest and activity within the network.Technical AnalysisHowever, it's highly likely that Monero's price surge has ended. Technical indicators point to the asset being severely overbought. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI was already above 86%. A bearish divergence has appeared on the daily timeframe.IdeaThe emergence of bearish patterns could be a strong signal for opening a short position.

The cryptocurrency market continues to capture investor attention, with the future price trajectory of Bitcoin being one of the most debated topics. A growing number of analysts and experts are converging on the belief that the value of the leading cryptocurrency could reach the $125,000 mark in 2025.This conviction is supported by a range of forecasts from prominent market players:High Probability of Rise from Derive: Dr. Sean Dawson of Derive notes that the probability of Bitcoin rising to $125,000 by the end of June 2025 has increased to 44.4%.Broad Growth Range from Gabriel Ayres: Analyst Gabriel Ayres, writing on Binance Square, and basing his analysis on on-chain data and macroeconomic conditions, forecasts a range for Bitcoin of $125,000 – $250,000 in 2025.Technical Analysis from Finance Magnates: Experts at Finance Magnates, citing Tony Sycamore of IG, suggest that Bitcoin could indeed reach $125,000 in the near term if it maintains its current momentum above the $110,000 level.Veteran Trader Peter Brandt's Prediction: Renowned trader Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin could hit $125,000 – $150,000 by August/September 2025.Benchmark Senior Research Analyst's View: A senior analyst at Benchmark, speaking on CNBC/Youtube, stated their assumption that Bitcoin's price will reach $125,000 by the end of 2025.Hint from Bitfinex: Bitfinex Head of Derivatives Jag Kooner hinted at Bitcoin's potential rise to $114,000 – $120,000 in the coming weeks, which, if momentum is maintained, could lead to the $125,000 mark.Fundstrat's Tom Lee's Forecasts: Tom Lee, a well-known crypto bull from Fundstrat, in his earlier 2025 forecasts, while not always naming a precise figure, frequently pointed to Bitcoin's potential in the six-figure range, including $125,000, based on macroeconomic factors and the halving event.Standard Chartered Bank's Earlier Expectations: Although their primary, later forecast was $150,000, in some earlier reports or when analyzing their bullish scenario, $125,000 appeared as an intermediate or conservative target for 2025.Market Watch Scenarios: Various experts quoted in Market Watch articles, from financial services and blockchain sectors, have discussed scenarios where Bitcoin could reach the $125,000 mark in 2025 due to growing demand from ETFs and a loosening of monetary policy.These forecasts indicate that a significant number of analysts and financial experts see the potential for Bitcoin to reach or even surpass $125,000 in 2025, driven by fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic factors.Technical AnalysisA prominent "Cup and Handle" technical analysis pattern is clearly visible, also automatically identified by the TradingView service. This formation typically suggests a bullish continuation, with the current pattern pointing towards a price target of approximately $124,650.IdeaA significant number of well-known forecasts converging on the $125,000 price level for Bitcoin suggests a potential market dynamic. This consensus target will likely lead to increased selling pressure at this price point. While it doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin's price growth will halt entirely, this level is expected to present significant resistance and could mark the beginning of a substantial correction.

The main event of the day: the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market have turned upward. The chance of a key rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve was estimated at 38.5% as recently as yesterday, but now it is 62.5%. This is a very fast and strong change. There is a reason for this.Fundamental AnalysisThe Federal Reserve may be forced to urgently move to lower rates and launch new liquidity programs, and the reason for this will not be inflation or the labor market.The MOVE Index, reflecting volatility in the U.S. bond market, is now on the verge of crisis intervention. On April 9, the index jumped to 139.87. If it crosses 140, this could trigger emergency actions by the Fed, as happened in the past. The Fed may simultaneously turn on the money printing press and lower the key rate. Cheap money will flow into the financial markets.You can view the MOVE Index on TradingView by searching for "TVC:MOVE".Technical AnalysisYesterday, during the price decline, the U.S. stock market did not update the previous local minimum. The price of BTC also did not update the local minimum, although it came very close. Now the BTC price chart can be interpreted as a double bottom (W) in short-term analysis.The best price for a stop-loss order is the local minimum of BTC prices, $74500. In a favorable scenario, if the Fed lowers the key rate, a very significant increase in BTC prices should be expected. It is quite possible the price will exceed the ATH.Peter Schiff warns that if the Fed does not cut rates tomorrow and a massive quantitative easing (QE) program is not announced, we are in for a 1987-level stock market crash.

The price has experienced a significant drop, falling more than 25% below the average level. Historically, in 80% of cases, the price tends to revert to the average. Following the ShiftMA strategy, I plan to sell at the average price level. The strategy uses SMA (OHLC4, 3) for calculations.

The price of WIF has broken through the resistance line. Most likely, the upward correction will reach the Fibonacci level of 0.382. This results in an R/R (risk/reward) ratio of 7.12, indicating a favorable trading opportunity.

VanEck's Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush recently shared their Solana price prediction on X (formerly known as Twitter). I will copy their text for you here.VanEckOur Solana Price Target by the End of 2025 is $520We value Solana (SOL) based on its projected year-end market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market. Our SCP market cap forecast is derived from U.S. M2 money supply growth, given its strong historical correlation with crypto market capitalization.We project M2 to reach 22.3T by the end of 2025, maintaining its 3.2% annualized growth rate since its last trough in October 2023. Using regression analysis, we estimate total SCP market capitalization will grow 43% to 1.1T by year-end 2025 (vs. 770B today), surpassing its 2021 peak of 989B. Historical data shows a strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap, with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).Currently, Solana holds 15% of SCP market cap, but we forecast its share to rise to 22% by EOY 2025. This projection is supported by Solana’s developer dominance, increasing market share in DEX volumes, revenues, and active users. Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens.The $520 price target is unlikely to be achievable without the approval of a Solana-based spot ETF in the U.S. Therefore, we should assess the likelihood of such approval and when it might occur.ETF Approval DateCurrently, there is some misleading information circulating on social media claiming that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that the SEC will approve a spot ETF in the U.S. as early as February 2025. In reality, Larry Fink never made such a statement. The creators of these fake screenshots likely used Photoshop to fabricate them.According to official information, the SEC is expected to make a decision on the Solana-based ETF between October 2 and October 18. Now that the timeline is clear, let's discuss the odds.ETF Approval OddsBloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated the likelihood of approval for various cryptocurrency ETFs in 2025. Data from their table indicates that they estimate a 70% chance of a Solana ETF being approved in 2025.We can gauge market expectations using the Polymarket platform. Currently, there are two betting options available. Only 36% of participants are betting that SEC approval will be granted in the first half of 2025.Meanwhile, 84% of participants are betting on SEC approval occurring at some point in 2025.Based on this data, it is more likely that approval will be granted, but only in the second half of 2025.Technical AnalysisOn the chart, we can clearly see the channel within which the price has been moving for several months.At the moment, the market is bearish in the short term. For this reason, it is highly likely that the price will approach the lower boundary of this channel in the coming months. This roughly corresponds to a price of $170. Buying at $170 or even lower would be an excellent opportunity to open a long position. However, for the trade to be successful, the price needs to remain above the lower boundary of the channel.

ATHMost recently, the price of Solana formed a new all-time high (ATH) at $264.39 this November. The previous all-time high was four years ago. On November 6, 2021, the price reached $259.90. Exceeding past highs is a known bullish signal. However, four years ago, the price of $260 should be considered expensive, and now the same price of $260 should be considered cheap. There have been important changes.CorrelationThe price of Solana has a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin. This analysis uses the daily closing price charts of Bitcoin and Solana on a logarithmic scale. On November 6, 2021, when the price reached its high, Solana was worth $258.44. On the same day, Bitcoin was worth $61,470.61. Solana was approximately 238 times less expensive than Bitcoin. Solana's last closing price high was on November 22, 2024. This price was $256.90. On the same day, Bitcoin was worth $98,892. On that day, Solana was approximately 385 times less expensive than Bitcoin. If the price difference between Bitcoin and Solana were to remain consistent with that of 2021, Solana would be worth about $415 today. Solana has not worsened in those four years; on the contrary, it has improved. This suggests that Solana is currently undervalued.CapitalizationMarket capitalization is often referred to as 'network value' in the context of cryptocurrencies. On November 6, 2024, Solana’s market capitalization exceeded that of BNB. Since then, Solana’s market capitalization has remained higher than BNB’s. This makes Solana the third-largest blockchain by this metric, excluding stablecoins. CompetitionSolana's blockchain competes with other smart contract platforms, such as Ethereum. One of the main challenges Solana has faced is its operational reliability, as the network has experienced several outages and performance issues. However, in recent years, many of these technical problems have been addressed, and the network's stability has improved, though occasional issues still occur. Solana is known for its high throughput and low transaction fees, making it faster and cheaper to use compared to Ethereum. While Ethereum's major advantages include its mature ecosystem, wide developer adoption, and integration with DeFi, dApps, and NFTs, one additional advantage is the possibility to invest in Ethereum through ETFs. There are discussions about the potential for a Solana ETF in the future, but no official date has been confirmed.TVLSolana has not only increased its market capitalization, but also improved other important indicators. The Solana blockchain's total value locked (TVL) metric has been showing consistent growth recently. On July 20, 2024, the TVL of the Solana blockchain exceeded that of Binance Smart Chain (BSC) for the first time. At that time, this placed Solana in third place for this metric among all blockchains. By November 9, 2024, Solana's TVL had already surpassed that of Tron (TRX). Thus, Solana became the second blockchain by this metric, holding a 6.78% share of the DeFi market. Just one year earlier, on November 9, 2023, Solana was in 8th place in the TVL ranking with a share of 1.04%. Ethereum (ETH) continues to hold first place in the TVL ranking. Solana's TVL has continued to increase in recent months. At the same time, its growth rate has accelerated.ETFThe growth in market capitalization and TVL attracts investors' attention to Solana as an asset. As a result, several companies are seeking to create a Solana-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). Currently, four investment companies have filed applications to create a Solana-based ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Among the companies that have submitted applications to the SEC are VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise.Thus, the number of companies seeking to create a Solana-based ETF is greater than for any other blockchain.The emergence of Bitcoin-based ETFs has impacted the price. As a result, institutional investors were able to invest in Bitcoin. This, of course, increased the demand for the coins and their prices. However, Ethereum did not grow in price as much after the appearance of its ETFs. The reason is that staking in the independent ownership of ETH coins allows investors to extract more profits. Therefore, Ethereum-based ETFs are less attractive to investors.ChanceThe applications to create an ETF based on Solana are unlikely to be approved by the current SEC administration headed by Gary Gensler. This is the opinion of James Seyffart, an ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Here's what he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).Covered Solana ETFs' likely approval in the next year or two under Trump's new SEC. *BUT* they could very easily fail to be recognized under this current SEC admin. They were functionally rejected that way in July/Aug when CBOE first filed on behalf of VanEck & 21Shares.But on November 22, 2024, it became known that Gary Gensler would leave office on January 20, 2025, when Joe Biden's presidential term expires. Donald Trump wants to appoint a cryptocurrency supporter to the position of SEC Chair. Trump himself is very loyal not only to cryptocurrencies but also specifically to Solana. Therefore, the probability of ETF approval may be quite high.Mr. PresidentTrump has already used the Solana blockchain several times to sell his NFT collections. Trump chose this blockchain; perhaps he likes it. Besides Trump, the former first lady has also sold her NFTs using the Solana blockchain. NFTs featuring Melania Trump's eyes can be seen in the top chart. However, NFTs were previously distributed by the former president and former first lady. Now that he is president again, Solana will receive much more attention. And where there's increased attention, there's increased investment. Where there's increased investment, there are increased prices.When?An ETF based on Solana is likely to launch in 2025. The SEC has set a final deadline of August 8, 2025. Since it approved previous applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs in the days leading up to the deadline, it is possible that the situation will repeat itself. I think August is the most likely month.“Even if altcoin ETF filings begin the 19b-4 process today, decisions could take until late 2025,” Seyffart stated.AltseasonCryptocurrency market analysts highlight a period of time when altcoin prices rise more strongly than Bitcoin. They call this period the "altcoin season." The altcoin season has not started yet, but it is very likely to start in the near future. During the altcoin season, the price of Solana is more likely to rise because it is also an altcoin.RisksThe SEC may reject all applications to create a Solana-based ETF. Most likely, this rejection will lead to a rapid decline in Solana's price.Solana is a high-risk and highly volatile asset. After the last all-time high, the price fell by 97%.SummaryPricing Solana in 2021 at $260 can be considered high. However, in 2024, the same $260 might be seen as undervalued. Solana's performance indicators, such as TVL and reliability, have improved significantly over time. Solana's mass adoption has also grown notably. Solana was 238 times less expensive than Bitcoin at its price peak in 2021, and now it is already 385 times less expensive.I expect the price of Solana to exceed at least $400 by 2025, and with a high probability, it could reach $500-600. However, this would likely require the SEC to approve a Solana ETF.