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Macro supports the bullish continuation case ($600–$630), unless $568 breaks & macro data worsens Fed pivoting dovish, disinflation holding, AI-driven earnings resilience & strong liquidity High valuations, crowded positioning & possible macro shocks (yields spiking, geopolitics) The $568 neckline & $583 breakout line up with the macro inflection Fed easing cycle starting is bullish fuel if neckline holds Any surprise inflation/yield spike results in a neckline break, correction to $550 Next 2–3 Weeks 1.Bullish Breakout $583 to $600–$616 (50%) Supported by Fed pivot + earnings resilience 2. Bearish Breakdown $568 to $550–$537 (35%) Triggered by yields/inflation surprise or positioning unwind 3. Chop/Range ($568–$583) (15%) Market waiting on Fed September decision Macro + techs both say trend up until proven otherwise $568 = line in the sand, if it breaks, macro headwinds (yields, inflation) must be the culprit $583 breakout would be macro + technical alignment = high conviction run to $600+

QQQ broke out of a huge consolidation box (2024 into early 2025) That breakout projected a measured move of ~144 points (26%–36%), targeting $600–$630 Price indeed advanced strongly toward that zone before stalling 1. Bearish Case (head & shoulders or double top plays out) Breakdown below $568 with a target of $550, then maybe ~$537 (S2 pivot) if selling accelerates That’s about a 4%–5% correction, which is normal within an uptrend Double top is the cleaner, simpler read on this chart Head & shoulders is more complex and requires symmetry, which isn’t perfect here Both patterns target almost the same zone (~$550–$553), but the double top is easier to defend technically 2. Bullish Case (breakout resumes) Hold $568, reclaim $583–$585 & push into $600 (R2) Full measured move already points to $616–$633 longer term (R3–R4) Probabilities (with macro context) Continuation (push to $600–$616) @ 50% Correction ($568 break to $550–$537) @ 40% Extended chop ($568–$583 range) @ 10% The breakout from that massive 2024–2025 range still dominates the chart & trend is up until $568 fails The local Head & shoulders/double top is a warning sign, but not a confirmed reversal yet The market is essentially asking, do we consolidate near highs before another leg up, or do we shake out to $550 first?

The slope of the lines matters for pattern bias Sloping slightly down from $583 to $580 Holding flat around $563–$565 That shape is actually closer to a descending triangle Bearish continuation if support breaks But here’s the nuance, Descending triangles typically form after a downtrend, as continuation QQQ is in a strong uptrend, so even if the geometry looks bearish, context says bulls still have an edge In uptrends, these patterns can fail bearishly & instead resolve higher, especially if support keeps holding So the pattern could be read 2 ways, Descending triangle with support at $563 breaks = $545–$550 A coiling consolidation under resistance, which still may resolve upward given the broader trend The key difference will be whether $563 breaks down or holds Bearish breakdown (descending triangle plays out) at 35% because the macro trend is up since April & bulls usually defend support zones first, but if $563 breaks with volume, bears gain momentum quickly Bullish breakout (uptrend prevails) at 50% because of the broader uptrend + strong dip buying since April Each rejection at $580 has been shallow, showing underlying demand Price keeps oscillating between $563–$580 for another week at 15% in the short run, but if it drags on too long, the eventual breakout becomes stronger

Today’s rally into resistance doesn’t cancel the bearish structure - it just tested the ceiling again, like the ball bouncing off the ceiling one more time Price bounced, yes, but it stopped right at the descending trendline and supply zone Until QQQ clears $577–$580 on volume, this is just another lower high RSI still under 60 on the daily MACD still bearish crossover Bearish setups need bounces since sellers actually want rallies into supply Today’s move just brought price back to the spot where bears previously took control The deciding factor is whether tomorrow’s NFP release causes a breakout above $580 (bullish) or a breakdown below $562 (bearish) Descending triangles usually resolve downward (break of the flat base) A clean daily close <$562 would trigger measured move targets Until $562 breaks on volume, it’s still just compression Sometimes triangles fake down, trap shorts & rip higher (especially with macro catalysts like NFP) If $576 rejects, short to $562–$558 If $577–$580 breaks (bulls win), step aside or flip long toward $583+ The Fib retracements line up neatly, 50% = $571.39 61.8% = $568.59 (sits right inside that shaded demand area) 78.6% = $564.61 & 82.6% = $563.67 (exactly where buyers defended) 100% = $559.54 This layering creates a ladder of potential supports, but also a measured path for shorts The 1, 2 & 3 path into $559–$560 matches the 100% extension of the prior move This is where measured move & Fibonacci confluence meet Bears could take profit on the way down at $568.5 to $564.5 & $560 If $559 breaks with volume, extension opens toward $547 (200d SMA) which would be the larger “unwinding” target Invalidation is simple, if daily close >$577–$580 trendline While in-play, each Fib level gives you a chance to trail stops down Trendline + Supply Zone + Symmetry + Fibonacci = high-probability short setup Price = supply zone/descending trendline RSI = overbought on the 15m & below the midline slope & capped under 60 on the daily That’s a sign of weak momentum - each bounce fizzles out earlier The RSI trendline itself is descending, which mirrors price MACD = potentially topping on the 15m & still bearish crossover on the daily with it's histogram contracting slightly, so momentum is still in bear mode, with only a weak attempt at recovery Momentum: RSI + MACD both confirm sellers are in control of the bigger picture If NFP or another catalyst sends QQQ through $577–$580, watch for RSI breaking above 60 (momentum shift) & MACD histogram flipping positive with a bullish cross That would negate the bearish triangle & turn this into a breakout squeeze toward $583+

On the larger timeframe, the overall structure is a bear flag off the bigger down-move, much better than the earlier wedge attempt If QQQ were forming a wedge, price would be swinging wider with higher highs & lower lows, like a volatility burst after sideways action This leans bearish (because of the descending highs & flat-ish support), but the final signal will be whichever side breaks with volume The consolidation isn’t bullish (yet) because it’s drifting against the prior impulse down It's a bull flag nested inside a bigger bear flag It's a setup that needs confirmation, so bullish in theory, but the market still has to “vote” with price + volume If you view the current consolidation as a bull flag, you’re keying off the last impulse up ($559-$572) If you view it as a bear flag, you’re keying off the last dominant leg down ($583-$559) That last green bar is encouraging for bulls, but overall the consolidation volume looks like it’s contracting (fits both a flag & a bear retrace) The decisive clue will be whether volume expands on the breakout/breakdown Puts Watch for rejection at $571 with fading volume Calls Watch for strong volume push above $572, targeting ~$578 1. Volume Buyers came in strong on the last green bar, but for a sustained push through $571, should see rising buy volume 2. Structure If price fails at $571 & volume fades, it could roll over to test $565-$560 If buyers push cleanly above $572 with conviction, then the upper gap $574–$578 comes into play as the next target If sellers defend $571 again, odds favor a breakdown toward $560 If volume surges & $571 breaks, bulls have a clean magnet up to $578–$582

The white volume line has been fading during the climb inside the wedge That’s typical of an exhaustion rally inside an ascending broadening wedge where price pushes higher on weaker participation The last push up showed a small bounce in volume, but not a breakout-level surge For a wedge, this usually suggests the rally is running out of gas rather than building strength Broadening wedges often end with a volume pickup on the breakdown, not on the way up If we see that white line spike while price loses the wedge bottom, that would be a strong bearish confirmation Conversely, if volume expands while breaking above $573–$574, it would invalidate the bearish read & confirm strength instead So, right now volume is consistent with a potential bearish resolution** I posted an updated version with some corrections

Support levels are far below current price, but they anchor downside risk if a true bear phase begins Clear $585 with an upside target $600–$625 (aligns with R2) Hold between $568–$585, market consolidates until macro data (jobs, CPI, Fed) Weekly close back below R1 ($568) opens a slide to $540 & maybe toward $482 if selling accelerates

1. Immediate Support Holds (~55%) QQQ consolidates above current levels A push above $583.32 (recent high) would confirm bullish continuation $589–$590 or retest of envelope top/channel resistance $600 is a round-number magnet & could trigger breakout momentum Extension to $607–$610, based on measured move from the last swing Biggest shelf (high-volume node) is $565–$575 This matches where QQQ has been consolidating with lots of buyers & sellers 2. Break Below $560s (~35%) Signals loss of short-term momentum Eyes turn toward $540 (23.6% Fib) - first real downside test Major support in the area of $529–$540 100d SMA ($529) + Fib ($540) is a critical test Bounces & dip-buyers defend trend Failure & trend weakens significantly Secondary shelf at $520–$530 perfectly lines up with Fib 38.2% ($514) & 100d SMA Low-volume gap at $545–$555 If QQQ breaks under $565, it can slide fast into this pocket before stabilizing at $540/$530 3. Deeper Downside (~10% - unless macro shock) $493 (50% Fib) is midpoint retrace, strong demand area (if market turns risk-off, this is the magnet ) $472 (61.8% Fib) is the golden ratio area of support If this breaks, trend structure flips bearish with risk toward $440–$433

Symmetrical triangle = compression where buyers keep stepping in higher, but sellers cap at lower levels Often a continuation pattern, but it can break either way depending on volume + macro drivers MACD just had a bearish cross earlier, but it’s trying to curl back up which suggests indecision & matches the triangle RSI is holding mid-zone (~45) - not oversold, not overbought, again, neutral compression In a proper symmetrical triangle, volume should decline as the pattern compresses This shows traders waiting, fewer willing to commit inside the chop That looks normal here (quieter trading into late August) Volume must expand; otherwise it’s just a fake-out; ideally, RSI also breaks under ~40 & MACD diverges down If price falls back inside the triangle on weak volume, it’s a false move If price reclaims the ascending line quickly, it’s a bear trap If the breakout candle volume is ≥150% of average, that’s confirmation If price moves but volume stays weak, expect a possible reversal Watch the first 15–30 min of volume after the break If it’s a strong surge, odds favor continuation If volume fades and price chops back inside the triangle, it’s likely a fake-out Price broke down through the ascending support trendline around ~$572, currently testing $570 Volume expanded on the breakdown candle which adds credibility to the move If follow-through comes with continued above-average volume, it confirms the downside break Triangle height is ~24 points (from ~$583 high to ~$559 low), so $570 – $24 = ~$546 (aligns with prior support from mid-August) If volume continues to stay above 1.3M baseline & Tuesday closes weak, expect sellers to aim for ~$558 first (previous swing low) & then the measured move (~$546) Direction = which line breaks (up/down) Strength = whether volume surges beyond normal Bulls need a fast reclaim of $572–$573 on strong volume; otherwise, bears keep control

Today’s long red candle shows strong rejection, high conviction selling Today’s 4H bounce at the center band looks more like technical support hold, not yet bullish reversal So short-term the market is testing balance at $570 If it loses $570, downside continuation is favored If it recaptures $576 quickly, squeeze potential kicks in Trigger to watch is a daily close under $568, or weakness that can’t reclaim $570