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Short-term momentum is stretched so watch for a potential pullback to $608 then $603 if selling follows through 1. Price vs MTD VWAP MTD VWAP ≈ $603.7, with +1σ ≈ $611 & +2σ ≈ $613 QQQ is pressing the upper (+2σ) edge of the VWAP envelope & that’s statistically extended Historically, price rarely sustains above this zone without cooling off toward +1σ ($608-$609) or the VWAP itself ($603-$604) Overbought short-term; risk of mean reversion if momentum fades 2. Volume Profile Volume into the close rose sharply, but without broad range expansion That kind of volume spike after an extended move often means distribution (profit-taking at highs) rather than fresh breakout energy The closing volume spike without strong follow-through suggests distribution (smart money selling into strength) That’s also characteristic of the transition from Wave 5 to wave a (meaning the first corrective down-leg may already be starting) Likely aiming for $588-$590 first & potentially $532 over the next 4-6 weeks if the full correction unfolds 3. RSI (15m) RSI ≈ 68 & curling lower from overbought A bearish cross of RSI below its signal line after sitting near 70 is a classic short-term momentum-loss trigger Supports the idea of a pullback or consolidation within 1-2 sessions 4. Stochastic Oscillator Fast %K & %D have both rolled over sharply (≈ 34 & 18) Coming off multiple overbought resets above 80, this steep drop signals short-term exhaustion with traders locking gains 5. Intraday Structure You can see bearish divergence forming where price neared ATHs (~$613.18) while RSI & Stoch made lower highs That divergence plus rejection at +2σ VWAP = early topping behavior on the 15m timeframe Start of wave a Post $613 tag Pullback to $608–$609 +1σ VWAP support Mid-wave a acceleration Next 1-2 sessions Sharp dip to $603-$604 MTD VWAP mean End of wave a Within ~3-5 days $588-$590 Prior breakout base Wave b "bounce" Late this or next week Rebound to $595-$600 Lower high under prior peak Wave c Following weeks Down to $540-$532 61.8% daily retracement

The current leg (mid-2025 onward) is the steepest recovery yet & that slope just broke This indicates a possible mean reversion phase rather than another leg up Steep advance > rounding top > 8-12% correction Then a multi-month basing period before recovery If that rhythm repeats, the current topping area around $613 could imply a pullback to $560-$580 That would be a “standard” correction, not a crisis The red projection mimics the 2024 & mid-2023 patterns that featured a short distribution, decline & support at the previous breakout area The support shelf sits near $580-$585, where prior resistance turned support (June-July 2025) Below $575 would confirm a more durable trend break & that’s where longer-term funds start de-risking Large-scale corrections on this timeframe (daily, spanning 6-12 months) usually take 2-4 weeks to play out from first break to low, followed by a 1-3 week consolidation near the floor So if the current roll continues, your next decisive move window is late October into early November If you’re trading via options, it reinforces using 2-3 week puts since they align with both the short-term structure & this macro corrective window

The probability skew remains to the downside over the next 1-2 wks ±3% envelope = $622/$587 Expect mean reversion near $601 Technical confluence + implied vol suggest any break of $595 confirms a run toward the lower envelope (~$586-$590) ±3% Envelope from Current Price ($603.93) 1. +3% ≈ $622 Top edge of the prior uptrend channel; retests the failed breakout zone from early October ($613-$620) Strong resistance cluster; unlikely to break unless mega-cap earnings crush expectations 2. -3% ≈ $586.80 Perfect alignment with the measured-move support from the head & shoulders (~$585-$590) This is the “bear completion” area where shorts often take partial profits The daily chart shows QQQ trapped around its mean, with weakening upside participation - ideal environment for short-term bearish option plays (1-3 week window), but not yet a crash setup If you close below $600 on volume, this likely triggers momentum algos for a retest of $592 If you close above $607 with breadth confirmation, you’ll get a squeeze, but probably short-lived without macro support The mean line around $601-$602 is acting as the pivot for now & price keeps oscillating right around it You’ve got 2 failed highs in early & mid-October, that’s consistent with a rolling top The candle bodies are hugging the lower half of the volatility band rather than the upper which is a subtle shift in momentum RSI (4H view) is still under 55 with no true momentum reclaim So despite the bounce Friday, it’s technically still corrective inside an uptrend, not fresh bullish This kind of daily structure with a slow drift near the mean with room to test lower band usually plays out over 1½-2 weeks before a directional break That again points to 10 to 21d options as the sweet spot since it's enough time for confirmation, short enough to keep theta manageable

Rising wedge pattern clearly broke to the downside The price is consolidating just below the MTD VWAP, which now acts as resistance (~$600-$601) The lower bound of the wedge (~$596) is being tested; breaking that increases odds of a retest of $589-$590 (prior support from 11 October) RSI (47) is just under neutral, leaning bearish with no strong oversold bounce signal yet Stochastic (≈58) is curling higher, but still mid-range, implying a weak rebound attempt Volume is rising slightly into the close, suggesting distribution, not accumulation The intraday structure is bearish, as long as QQQ stays below $601-$602 Any close above VWAP would invalidate the short-term down bias If $596 breaks, expect acceleration toward $592, then $589 (bottom Bollinger band) If $595 holds & RSI rebounds, you could see a short squeeze back toward $602 before sellers reload The 15m chart shows a rising wedge breakdown, confirming sellers in control short-term The 4H trend remains intact but fragile, with the 50d MA around $599.5-$600 Momentum compression (RSI mid-40s, Stoch flattening) implies a volatile swing into Friday with an expected 1d move ±1.0% (≈$6 range) Implies QQQ could trade between ~$588 & $610 short-term Bearish Path (favored 60%) Fails at VWAP (≈$600-$602) RSI rolls under 40 on 15m chart Next leg to $595 to $590 test Acceleration possible into close Friday Bullish Path (40%) Defends $596, closes >$602 with volume Short squeeze to $606-$608, but likely capped below $610 Still a countertrend rally unless above $610

The bulls trying to extend the prior double-bottom rally while bears defend the neckline of a new head & shoulders Volume contraction is key as it means bears haven’t confirmed their pattern yet RSI ≈ 51 is perfectly neutral; momentum flat, but not diverging yet Stoch ≈ 82 is in showing short-term overbought, which often precedes a minor pullback; unless, volume expands upward Volume is declining through right-shoulder formation which suggests indecision, not conviction selling Double-bottom support vs emerging head & shoulders resistance Until $595 or $606 decisively breaks on volume, expect sideways consolidation The edge slightly favors bulls because the neckline hasn’t been challenged with volume RSI & structure still lean constructive 1. Continuation of relief rally; neckline retest from above (55%) Break above $606-$610 2. Rejection & neckline (35%) Test ($595) 3. Controlled fade; could create a larger base (10%) Clean neckline breach Would target $585–$586 quickly; momentum flush

QQQ is carving out a constructive double-bottom reversal base Needs a confirmed breakout above $604 to unlock $613–$619 upside Structure supports the idea that the market is beginning to self-correct after the tariff-shock overreaction Bullish divergence confirmed; momentum rising while price tests resistance The highest volume occurred during the first bottom (panic flush) & volume at the second bottom was lower (classic exhaustion signal) The right-side rally back to $600 printed increasing volume, suggesting dip buyers are active If QQQ closes above $604 on elevated volume, measured move becomes active with short-term bullish bias toward $613–$618 Panic becomes opportunity once price stability returns

This chart layers in the Fibonacci pivot structure (R1, R2, S1, etc), the trend channel & the measured move from the recent high QQQ is down roughly –5.5% from its 2025 high near $613.18, sitting at $589.50, which is directly in line with the pivot level of $587.59 This aligns with the lower edge of the prior channel & 50d MA, meaning QQQ is currently testing its equilibrium point after a strong run The 38d up leg from August to October is typical of QQQ’s swing rhythm; retracements of 5–6% after 35–40 days of trending are very common Statistically, a rebound to R1 ($604) is more probable than a further slide below S1 - provided QQQ holds $585 early in the week, so in the next 1-2 weeks, R3 $630.93 is the stretch rebound target (upper Bollinger + prior high) R2 $614.37 is the gap-fill + retest of broken wedge R1 $604.15 is the mean-reversion target (20d MA) P (Pivot) $587.59 is the current balance point/trendline S1 $571.04 is the extension of a breakdown if the 50d MA fails S2 $560.81 is a major Fib support/panic low S3 $544.26 is the 200d MA This selloff looks more like a “reset” within a bullish trend than a structural reversal Volume spiked to 97M, the highest since April suggests capitulation behavior, not sustained distribution The channel from May’s breakout remains intact; price has simply returned to the lower bound 1. Rebound Case (Preferred/60% probability) QQQ stabilizes above $585–$587, then reclaims $595–$600 Once $600 clears, momentum accelerates to R1 ($604) & possibly R2 ($614) The full reversion move could take 5–10 trading days 2. Continuation Case (30% probability) Failure to hold $585 with a retest S1 ($571) within 2-4 sessions That would fulfill the entire measured move (–6.5%–7%), after which a base forms into late October Historically, after wedge breaks of this size, QQQ reclaims half to two-thirds of the drop

The 50d MA often acts as the first line of defense in bull markets When the price breaks below its intraday high and then reclaims it within 1-3 sessions, it is considered a bullish continuation setup Historically, QQQ tends to bounce 3-5% after reclaiming its 50d MA following a 2-3% flush So if QQQ closes back above $595, it could accelerate through $600–$610 toward prior highs near $615–$620 Today's drop is a retest of intermediate trend support, not a deep structural breakdown

The $568–$582 area aligns with deep Fibonacci support, sentiment washout & historical rebound behavior after tariff shocks - all ingredients for a fast relief rally The market is currently hovering between $582–$589, sitting right above that 78–82% retracement Historically, this acts as a springboard for sharp short-covering rallies; unless, macro fundamentals deteriorate rapidly "China–US Tariffs” marks both the prior and current inflection points - the market clearly prices in trade policy uncertainty aggressively, then reverts once it stabilizes After similar shocks (“Liberation Day” or “Midnight Hammer”), QQQ rebounded 6–9% within 5–10 trading days That would translate now to $615–$640 targets if history rhymes Momentum algorithms will likely trigger buys if QQQ closes back above $595, so that’s the near-term confirmation pivot $580–$585 is the ideal risk floor, while $605–$615 offers a reward window

Steep one-day drawdown + fear spike often precedes short-term rebounds & so long as $585 holds, the setup favors a reflexive rally back toward $605–$610 585–$600 is the active panic zone; heavy selling & volatility expansion Next major support is $560–$570 which is the base from spring, if this breaks, larger correction risk Resistance 1at $605–$610 is the first bounce target/prior floor Resistance 2at $620–$625 is the intermediate target if rally extends multiple days This looks more like a sentiment flush than the start of a prolonged bear move (at least for now) so confirmation signals to watch Monday QQQ futures (NQ) green premarket +0.5% or more VIX down 5–8% Mega-caps (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL) showing strong premarket bids RSI divergence or a hammer candle near $585–$590 intraday