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QQQ is still in a strong uptrend, trading above the 20d MA Price is hugging the upper band of its channel. Support at $586 (20d MA) & stronger support near $532, the previous breakout area Resistance at the recent swing high near $603 & the measured move target is $608 Right now, price is consolidating just below resistance If it clears $603–$609, momentum could continue higher A failure here could mean a retest of the 20d MA

QQQ is consolidating after a strong rally & holding the rising channel keeps upside targets alive, but a breakdown risks a retrace to mid-$560s If QQQ holds the channel and clears $602.87, the extension target is $650+ (123.6% Fib) A break below the channel and $595 could pull back to $560–$567 (Fib support) Long setup near $595 offers ~3:1 reward if aiming for $615–$650 Short setup below $595 has a cleaner move to $560–$567 (~5% downside) Right after QQQ’s breakout above $580, price consolidated in a tight rising channel, that’s the small bull flag If the bull flag breaks upward, it confirms momentum & could push QQQ toward $630 before testing the larger Fib extension at $650 If it fails, the channel support ($595ish) becomes key & a breakdown would negate the flag & risk a dip toward $560–567 The measured move (3.17%) from the flag points to $614.93 (short-term target) The larger 123.6% extension at $650 remains the next big level

A blow-off top is a rapid, almost vertical rally fueled by FOMO, followed by a sharp reversal; basically, when buyers exhaust themselves all at once at the highs Steep, accelerating candles Price goes near vertical with increasingly larger green candles Little to no pullback along the way Climactic volume Volume spikes dramatically; often, the highest in weeks Sign that everyone rushed in at once Psychological level tag Often happens at a round number (QQQ $600) Big funds sell into retail chasing that breakout Immediate reversal After tagging the high, price reverses sharply Often leaves a long upper wick or a big red candle the next day In a normal pullback, price runs up, consolidates, dips a little, then continues trend That parabolic sprint to $602 had some blow-off energy, but volume confirmation & follow-through matter If QQQ holds $596–$598, then just a pullback If it slices through $596 to $592 quickly, then the $602 peak was likely a blow-off top 1. November 2021 (~$400) QQQ ran up nearly vertical into the end of November Volume surged, RSI > 80 (extreme overbought) Next sessions was a sharp reversal & that marked the all-time high for over a year 2. July 2023 (~$388) A straight-line rally into mid-July RSI & stochastics pinned high Daily candle with a long upper wick, then a red engulfing candle the next day QQQ retraced ~5% quickly 3. March 2024 (~$448) Blow-off type move in tech earnings season Price overshot resistance, then reversed hard within 2–3 days QQQ currently reached ~$602 & setup looks similar Strong parabolic run from ~$584 to $602 (+3%) RSI was pushing toward overbought Yesterday's red reversal candle below $600 If QQQ closes below 596, we’d have a failed breakout Breakdown candle after a parabolic leg High probability that $602 = short-term blow-off top If it holds $596–$598 & bounces, then it’s just a consolidation, not a true blow-off QQQ below $596 confirms the blow-off, while above $598 it’s still possible to rebuild Blow-off top = acceleration up + exhaustion candle + fast reversal If $596 breaks with volume, signals sellers are in control 1. $592–$593 (prior breakout shelf) Textbook first downside target after a blow-off peak; often, where dip-buyers step in 2. $587–$588 (last pivot low before the parabolic run) If blow-off confirms, this is a high-probability magnet Stretch Downside (full retracement of blow-off leg) 3. $584 (base of the September run) Would imply the parabolic move unwinds fully Only in case of heavy selling/broad market risk-off Daily close below $596 confirms a blow-off top RSI roll-over from overbought with price under $596 = momentum shift Volume spike on red candle = strong confirmation that $602 was exhaustion If $602 was a blow-off top, QQQ’s clean retracement ladder is $592-$596, $587 & $584 (short-term, medium-term & stretch)

QQQ looks like it’s in late-stage accumulation/melt-up mode, not exhaustion Breadth indicators confirm strength If breadth starts diverging (price makes new highs while TRIN flips bearish & TICK dives), that’s when you prep for reversal 1. TRIN Hovering around 0.66, still bullish No broad selling pressure (>1.2) Historically, as soon as you get multiple daily closes >1.2–1.5, that marks real distribution 2. TICK Recently hugging slightly negative territory, but not collapsing This means intraday downticks are outweighing upticks, but only modestly At market tops, you often see TICK roll negative while TRIN stays suppressed, a divergence - worth monitoring Price at highs + TRIN bullish + TICK mildly negative looks like rotation & digestion, not distribution The early warning combo would be if TRIN spikes >1.2 & TICK deeply negative (TICK printing –400 to –600), that would show institutions unloading In strong distribution phases, expect repeated deep negative sweeps (-400 to -600) Right now, breadth is still net supportive

This chart is a strong cup & handle breakout, pending confirmation above $600 If confirmed then target $633-$646 1. The double top (bearish) is only valid if price fails $600 & reverses sharply 2. Healthy bull trend with consolidation at resistance Ascending triangle is tightening under $600, ready for breakout Cup & handle is a longer-term bullish continuation pattern The chart is shifting from a topping risk into a potential breakout setup, but $600 must prove itself; either, as a ceiling (rejection) or a launchpad (breakout) The cup & handle is the more dominant pattern because the handle was shallow & orderly & price is retesting the neckline directly instead of rolling over, but the double top risk only disappears if QQQ decisively clears $600 with volume Above $600 with strength = breakout Rejection under $600 with bearish candles = double top still alive Neutral small candles = consolidation, wait for direction The candles suggest bullish consolidation under resistance If NVDA joins, it could be the catalyst to print the breakout candle above $600 Why NVDA isn’t leading today? Regulatory uncertainty/negative news spillover (from China restrictions) is creating hesitation among investors (future headwinds weigh on sentiment) NVDA has had a very strong run recently so some traders are likely booking profits or rotating into other names perceived to have higher recent upside or less regulatory risk Lower volume suggests weaker conviction among buyers NVDA seems to be bumping up against resistance or nearing levels where sellers are more active so without a catalyst (positive news or breakout), it may just drift until something shifts Also, since other tech/AI/semiconductor names may have more “catch-up” potential, capital might be rotating out of NVDA into them

The 20d MA is the heartbeat of this trend Late August to early September consolidation where QQQ went sideways between $570-$585 The breakout above that consolidation in mid-September created a bullish continuation pattern, which resembles a bull flag/rectangle Measuring the prior impulse leg (4.36%) & projecting it forward to $608–$609 lines up with this breakout structure $583 × (1 + 0.0436) ≈ $608–$609 QQQ finished the week stretched at the upper +3% envelope, showing strong, but slightly overextended momentum Volume was moderate, but supportive with no signs of distribution The next test is whether it can hold $600 & push into the $608–$609 target zone next week Momentum is strong, but both RSI & stochastics warn that QQQ is overextended Near-term risk is a pullback or consolidation at/near $600 Trend remains bullish as long as MACD stays positive & price holds above recent breakout levels Failure at $600 combined with a break back under $580 would signal a failed breakout & likely mean reversion toward $562–$555 Only a close below $532 would break the entire uptrend structure $532.17 is the base of the prior summer consolidation & an important bigger-picture support

This ratio rises when QQQ strengthens & volatility (VIX) declines, a classic risk-on signal The higher the ratio, the more “complacency” builds - extremes here often precede corrections Both QQQ & QQQ/VIX are at/near highs, which confirms bullish sentiment, but also shows that positioning is crowded If QQQ keeps pushing higher, but QQQ/VIX fails to confirm (flat or declining), that’s often an early warning of exhaustion Any sudden VIX spike (geo, macro, Fed) would drag this ratio down fast & pressure QQQ QQQ/VIX this elevated often means traders are too comfortable Pullbacks tend to emerge from such levels If VIX jumps, ratio collapses Historically, that coincides with sharp QQQ corrections With QQQ at ~$600 & QQQ/VIX stretched, market may need a consolidation or correction before higher 1. Late January / Early February 2025 QQQ/VIX peaked near 41 QQQ topped just above $580 before rolling into a multi-week correction 2. Mid-April 2025 QQQ/VIX sharp rebound high (mid-30s) QQQ short-lived bounce before a deeper dip into May 3. Now (Mid-September 2025) QQQ/VIX at ~38, near prior extremes QQQ at $595, pressing resistance around $600 Every major QQQ pullback since late 2024 coincided with QQQ/VIX spiking near 35–40 Peaks in the ratio tend to lead or align with local QQQ tops Once the ratio rolls over, QQQ usually corrects or at least consolidates QQQ/VIX is once again in the upper 30s Unless the ratio makes a decisive breakout beyond prior extremes (sustaining >40), history suggests odds of a near-term pullback are elevated Watch closely for a stall or rollover in QQQ/VIX (early warning), a VIX spike (usually the trigger), or QQQ struggling with $600 resistance

Buyers are facing strong resistance & today's trading is a warning sign of exhaustion, not yet a decisive reversal, but the setup leans bearish unless bulls break out cleanly above $598 - risk leans toward a pullback RSI/Stoch show overbought, flashing risk of pullback MACD is still bullish, but losing strength Today's gap up rejection confirms sellers are active at resistance This paints a picture of a topping setup unless neckline holds strong The gap up was a bull trap where buyers pushed early, but sellers overwhelmed Today’s candle acts as the confirmation signal of a double top (shooting star/bearish engulfing), is a textbook bearish signal at Top 2, which suggests bulls are losing steam & bears are pressing harder This creates a bearish gap + reversal setup 1. Bearish Signals Shooting star (small body, long upper wick), rejection of higher prices Bearish engulfing (large red candle fully covers prior green), sellers taking control Doji at highs (indecision), often precedes reversal when overbought Evening star (3 candles & strong green, then doji, then strong red), top formation These confirm the double top pattern if paired with rejection volume 2. Bullish Continuation Hammer (small body, long lower wick), buyers defending support Bullish engulfing (large green candle covers prior red), buyers back in control Morning star (3 candles, strong red, then doji, then strong green), bullish reversal at support Marubozu green (full-bodied bullish candle, no upper/lower wick), conviction from buyers These suggest the neckline is holding & an ascending triangle breakout is possible At Top ($598), watch for rejection candles & at neckline ($556-$564), watch for defense candles (hammer, engulfing, morning star) Confirmation comes not from just one candle, but the follow-through

Strong uptrend from April to September (higher highs & higher lows), but market is hesitating with indecision candles at resistance 1. Bullish Clean breakout & close above ~$593 with follow-through $637.81 (123.6% Fib) to $665.62 (138.2% Fib) Needs strong green candles or a bullish gap above resistance Support at $552–$559 (78.6%-82.6% Fib) 2. Bearish Rejection at current highs (~$593), followed by consecutive red candles $552–$559 (major support cluster, 78.6%-82.6% Fib) $520.10 (61.8% Fib, critical trend support) Risk of deeper correction to $497.63 (50% Fib) Confirmation seen in long upper wicks, bearish engulfing, or heavy selling volume near ~$593 Watch candlestick formations here - next few candles will decide direction Recent candles near $592 are small-bodied candles with upper wicks which suggests indecision/possible exhaustion at resistance If QQQ stalls at this level & pulls back, it could form a double top around $593 (bearish if neckline at $559 breaks) If it consolidates sideways above $552–$559 & then breaks out, it could form a bullish continuation pattern (ascending triangle) No major reversal pattern yet, but watch closely for confirmation Bearish engulfing or shooting star near $593 is bearish signal Breakaway gap above $593 is bullish confirmation Double top ($588–$593) shows multiple doji & shooting star candles which signals indecision + rejection pressure If bearish patterns (doji/shooting star/bearish engulfing) dominate near $593, it indicates a likely reversal or pullback If price pulls back to $552–$559 & prints bullish engulfing/long lower wick, this is a strong buy-the-dip signal Bullish engulfing candles showed up earlier in August, helping the rally continue Support at $552–$559 is a key level where buyers may defend (base of possible ascending triangle) If neckline holds, it could be an Ascending Triangle & breakout above $593 points to $637+

The chart favors continuation higher with risk of a small dip, not a breakdown QQQ is pressing into $587–$588, right near highs Price is holding above all key momentum averages (stacked bullishly) Momentum Indicator at +9.6, which is positive, but not strongly accelerating Momentum peaked in early summer, but instead of breaking down, it’s grinding sideways & consistent with a “slow grind higher” market No bearish divergence since price makes higher highs, momentum holding steady Since QQQ is grinding up at highs with supportive momentum Buy $590C/Sell $600C (Sept 27 expiry) - cheap defined-risk spread, profit if QQQ pushes another 2% higher Cost basis should be reasonable since implied volatility isn’t spiking Call spreads near $590–$600 with a small put spread hedge is the cleanest way to play This combo is essentially a directional strangle using defined-risk spreads