pakoumal

Approximately 56.4% of the QQQ stocks are trading above their 50d MA & about 66.3% are trading above their 200d MA These levels indicate a moderately positive near-term trend with just over half of the constituents are in ST uptrends, suggesting reasonable participation, though it's not a runaway bullish signal A strong LT trend presence with two-thirds of stocks are in LT uptrends, supporting constructive structural strength beneath QQQ These numbers suggest that while participation is positive, it's not extreme If QQQ continues higher, it’s worth watching whether the 50d breadth climbs further (strengthening the breakout thesis) If QQQ rallies, but fewer constituents join (50d breadth stalls or reverses), that could be a red flag for sustainability

Given the tight range, expect either a fast breakout or quick rejection tomorrow (watch first 15 min volume — if it’s weak, false moves are more likely) Bullish: Short scalp: $582C or $585C (same week expiry) Swing: $587C or $590C (1–2 wks out) Stop-loss under $580 after breakout attempt Bearish: Scalp: $578P or $575P Swing: $570P for main target, $565P if looking for deeper flush Stop-loss above $580 after breakdown attempt

Wedge fakeouts often reverse sharply, so puts could pay fast if rejection holds If QQQ closes above $580 with follow-through & volume, then R3 @ $585.24 Invalid if price breaks back below $578 If QQQ fails at wedge top and breaks below $576 (lower trendline), then R1 at $575.47 (could bounce here intraday) Invalid if price breaks back above $578 The next couple of candles will decide

A rising wedge is generally considered bearish, especially if volume is decreasing into the apex R2 ($579.20) & the wedge top (~$579.5–$580) R3 ($585.24) if it breaks out Trendline support around $576, then R1 ($575.47) & pivot ($569.42) If price fails here & breaks the lower wedge line, it could trigger a pullback toward the pivot or S1 ($563.38) Breakout above wedge & R2 could push quickly toward R3 Break below wedge support could accelerate selling to pivot/S1

Macro Tailwinds ~95% odds of a September rate cut, an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher (soft landing vs stagflation narrative) Yields 10Y Treasury back toward 3.8-4.0% Lower yields historically supportive for QQQ Earnings Mag 7 beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 keeps AI momentum intact More than 65-70% of NDQ100 above their 50d SMA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders Technical Path Support near ~$573 Resistance around $577–580 (recent intraday highs) Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595 Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600) Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4 Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September. Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before end of year

The strong multi-day rally suggests buyers are in control, but hitting R2 often leads to short-term profit-taking Watch for either a breakout continuation toward R3 or a pullback to retest R1

Bulls are riding the tailwind of weakening headline inflation, buyer-friendly rate outlooks, and AI/tech strength. ~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA Need 60–65% stocks above 50d SMA New highs consistently > 8–10% of index components Bears flag concerns around persistent core inflation, lofty valuations, technical caution, and long-term risk exposure—especially if QQQ’s momentum disintegrates Core CPI remains sticky (like the latest 3.1% YoY) which delays Fed cuts Geopolitical/tariff shocks hitting supply chains or tech exports Earnings misses from big AI names which reverses sentiment Yield spike above 4.4% on the 10-year (valuation compression)

Macro Tailwinds ~95% odds of a September rate cut, an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher (soft landing vs stagflation narrative) Yields 10Y Treasury back toward 3.8-4.0% Lower yields historically supportive for QQQ Earnings Mag 7 beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 keeps AI momentum intact More than 65-70% of NDQ100 above their 50d SMA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders Technical Path Support near ~$573 Resistance around $577–580 (recent intraday highs) Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595 Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600) Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4 Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September. Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before end of year** I posted an updated version with some corrections

Macro Tailwinds Needed Fed Policy Rate Cut in September — Market is pricing ~93–95% odds; an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations. Soft Landing Narrative — If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher. Yields 10-Year Treasury back toward 3.8–4.0% — Lower yields reduce discount rates on future tech earnings, historically supportive for QQQ. Earnings "Mag 7" beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon need to deliver both EPS beats and strong guidance, keeping AI momentum intact. Broad Participation — More than 65–70% of Nasdaq-100 above their 50-day MA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders. 2️⃣ Technical Path Current Level: ~$573 Immediate Resistance: $577–580 (recent intraday highs) Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595 Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600) ~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA 50d (%) above 60–65% New highs consistently > 8–10% of index components Risks Core CPI remains sticky (like the latest 3.1% YoY) which delays Fed cuts Geopolitical/tariff shocks hitting supply chains or tech exports Earnings misses from big AI names which reverses sentiment Yield spike above 4.4% on the 10-year (valuation compression) Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4 Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September. Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before YE** I posted an updated version with some corrections

Bulls are riding the tailwind of weakening headline inflation, buyer-friendly rate outlooks, and AI/tech strength. Bears flag concerns around persistent core inflation, lofty valuations, technical caution, and long-term risk exposure—especially if QQQ’s momentum disintegrates** I posted an updated version with some corrections