Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX on 11/16/2025

The +/- 3% envelope with the 20d MA works well for mean-reversion strategies since it clearly shows inflection points where price may snap back toward the average How far is price from its 20d MA & is price near extremes of the 3% bands? Bollinger Bands adjust dynamically with volatility Price rarely lives beyond ±3% of the 20d MA for long Bias is short when the 20d MA is falling & price is above the upper band Bias is long when the 20d MA is rising & price is below the lower band After the April low at $402.39, the 20d MA's slope turned positive In strong uptrends, price stays between the 20d MA & the upper band & occasionally tags the upper band (June to October) In strong downtrends, price stays between the 20d MA & the lower band & occasionally tags the lower band QQQ followed a solid trend from April to November's $637 high This marked a high probability risk of mean-reversion When QQQ hit the low around $588-$589, the 20d MA was still up around ~$610 So we see a mirror-image on the downside stretch where the upside pushed beyond +3% & then a downside break beyond −3%, which is the kind of behavior that occurs when a strong trend finally exhausts - then corrects hard The move from ~$615-$637 was extended, so a good place to stop chasing longs The move from ~$615-$588 was also extended, so a good place to stop chasing shorts & expect a bounce back toward the 20d MA, which is exactly what's happening when QQQ bounced back toward ~$615 However, the current bounce is weak & is stretched relative to the bounce (+3.5% above the 20d MA, then −3.5% below the 20d MA, then back toward the 20d MA) - it's a full snap from upper to lower band & now a mean-reversion toward the 20d MA Either price reclaims the upper half of the channel & the trend resumes, or the 20d MA continues to rollover & any rallies the 20d MA/upper band are short entries which signals a trend change The odds of another big push back to $637 without a reset are now lower & it's possible the trend now shifts from strong uptrend to corrective/trend down Price rebounded from below the lower band back near the 20d MA, but rallies from the lower band back to the 20d MA are often short entries, not buy-the-dip opportunities This lines up with a $620 fail thesis Treat rallies back toward the 20d MA/upper band as suspect unless the 20d MA turns decisively higher again If the 20d MA rolls over & price fails near $620, QQQ's near-term direction has changed from an uptrend to a downtrend