Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX on 12/7/2025

The Thanksgiving bounce was real & technically healthy with a sharp V-reversal off ~$585 Buyers regained key MAs (20d & 50d), oscillators turned upward & price broke out of the panic low without resistance Last week’s action built a tight coil under a clear ceiling & this type of setup often resolves after a catalyst (FOMC) QQQ is at a true inflection point - not obviously topping, not clearly breaking out Both a pullback or breakout are technically reasonable A pullback is possible given stretched momentum, thinning volume, clear resistance $631-$637, many components are strong, but not surging & other short-term exhaustion signals which makes a risk of fade technically credible A breakout is still possible because the trend structure is intact, buyers defended every dip for 2 weeks, short-term AVWAPs are rising under price (support) & no reversal signals so the market tends to drift upward into events The most realistic path is a slow grind into $630-$633 early this week & after FOMC, the market chooses its path If buyers don’t have conviction, then a pullback toward $612 to $605 If buyers get a catalyst, then a breakout above $637 A “bounce into FOMC & then fade” base case is completely supported by the charts, but it’s not the only valid outcome A breakout remains technically possible if $637 is reclaimed with volume QQQ’s Thanksgiving rally carried into last week’s consolidation & the index is now poised at resistance in a balanced, technically neutral state so it can push higher into the $630-$633 early in the week, but the real move (pullback or breakout) will be decided after FOMC Wave 5 & Wave b often look similar until one key level is broken or held & right now, price is where both counts remain technically valid & that’s why I feel at a loss - it's ambiguous by nature, but there are precise levels that resolve the ambiguity 1. Price must break above the prior high at $637.01 with no exceptions Wave 5 must make a higher high relative to wave 3 2. Wave 5 should show expanding candles, improving breadth & stronger volume on the push through resistance bands Right now the move out of wave a is corrective-looking & wave 5 often starts with corrective back-testing; however, it has the look of an a–b–c upward correction, not a start of a new leg higher & this is a yellow flag for the bull case 1. If price rejects at resistance, wave b is confirmed & wave 5 is invalidated Price often stops exactly at the 78.6-82% retrace, which is common for wave b peaks Price should fail below $632-$637, then break $600-$605 & possibly accelerate lower to $570 2. If price closes above $637, then wave 5 is confirmed, period 3. If price rejects $630-$637 & breaks below $612, then the wave b path is confirmed This is the most important support on the chart Break $612 & the bounce was corrective so wave c is next The bounce up from wave a low looks much more like a wave b correction than a wave 5 start given the retracement depth (~78.6%) fits wave b perfectly, declining volume, stretched oscillators without trend confirmation & price pinned under major resistance Wave 5 usually doesn't start with weak volume & overlapping candles, but wave b rallies often do We don't confirm the wave b top until the market breaks support Structurally, the chart is sound & doesn't violate any hard Elliott rules A wave b often retraces 61.8-78.6%, or sometimes 100% of wave a The current rally is sitting just below the 78.6-82% ($630-$632) & may even tag $637 if the market pushes into the event/catalyst Wave c unfolds in 5 clean subwaves, often in a move parallel to wave a & usually lands near the 61.8% retrace of the prior impulse A realistic target is $560-$575 The wave c target around $572 is reasonable if the correction continues 0.618 × wave a (~32 points) 1 × wave a (most common, ~52 points) 1.618 × wave a (during strong, sharp corrections, ~84 points) $572 is between the 0.618 & 1 projections for wave c Lands almost perfectly on the 50% retracement of the entire wave 3 advance