Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX on 12/16/2025

The dominant structure from October-November is still up, but momentum has clearly rolled Price is now below the anchored VWAP from the November high & hovering just above the VWAP from the November low This is no longer trend-following territory It’s range/distribution behavior unless reclaimed quickly RSI ~mid-50s rolling down; stochastic deeply oversold & still pointing lower so downside pressure not yet exhausted Failure to hold ~$608-$610 opens a measured move toward the $580-$585, which lines up with prior demand Bias (4H) is neutral to bearish unless VWAP(high) is reclaimed & held Rising wedge breakdown is clean & confirmed The post-break retest failed near $615-$618 Price is below both anchored VWAPs & the VWAP(high) is now acting as resistance Selling pressure increased on the breakdown, but follow-through has been orderly, not panicked, which suggests controlled distribution, not capitulation RSI mid-30s & trending lower; stochastic pinned low so no bullish divergence Bias (1H) is bearish continuation unless price reclaims ~$613-$615 with volume Important nuance is that falling wedges only resolve bullish if they break with expansion & right now, volume is not expanding meaningfully Double bottom attempt is structurally weak & 2nd low lacks momentum divergence confirmation Price is chopping under VWAP(high), which caps upside attempts 1. Bullish (lower probability right now) Hold $608-$610 Break & hold >$612 Target $615-$618 (VWAP(high) + prior supply) 2. Bearish (base case) Lose $608 Quick acceptance below $602, then $595, with $580-$585 as the larger 4H objective I’d reassess bearish bias if any 2 of the following occur, Reclaim & hold anchored VWAP from November high 1H RSI reclaims >50 & 15m breakout with clear volume expansion Until then, rallies look sell-able, not chase-able Premarket at ~$608.50 is sitting on a decision level, not a support you can trust blindly 1. Bearish continuation (base case) Short setup (preferred) Price below both anchored VWAPs, post–rising-wedge breakdown, weak momentum Entry $612-$615 VWAP(high) + prior breakdown shelf Ideal entry is rejection, not strength Stop (invalidation) >$618.50 (15m close) Above VWAP(high) + structure Anything above here negates bearish structure Targets $608 - range low $602-$600 - intraday liquidity $585-$580 - 4H objective, anchored VWAP(low) + prior demand What must be true Rallies are overlapping and low-volume VWAP(high) continues to reject RSI fails to reclaim 50 on 1H 2. Countertrend Long (only if conditions trigger) Long setup (reaction trade, not trend) Entry on a hold of $608-$610 after confirmation 15m >$612 Volume expansion on breakout No long if these 3 things don’t happen Stop <$607.80 Hard stop; no tolerance Targets $615.80-$618.00 (VWAP(high)/supply) $620-$622 only if acceptance above VWAP(high) This long is mean-reversion only so don't assume trend continuation unless price accepts above $618 3. High-timeframe (most important) $608.00 Holding above = range still alive Losing & accepting below = downside acceleration If you see fast move below $608, failed reclaim within 1-2 candles (15m), then that’s continuation, not a fakeout 1. Bearish alignment 1H RSI <45 VWAP(high) overhead 15m bounces on declining volume 2. Bullish shift (requires confirmation) 1H RSI >50 VWAP(high) reclaimed and held 15m breakout with volume > prior average No divergence = no guessing