jonnieking

In every prior cycle when BTC lost the 200DMA it retested it well into the midterm year. Everyone still believed in the 4-year cycle even with this failed relief rally. But all of a sudden this time is supposed to be different 🤓 My base-case is that we do finally see a proper business cycle in 2026. I would give it a 50% probability that BTC does see a higher price IF that does occur. My hesitation here is that BTC got a higher high in November 2021 with a declining ISM vs March. Additionally, in April 2014 and February 2018 the ISM printed a slightly higher high, but BTC printed a lower high. This is the conundrum ₿itcoin has with the ISM, and part of the Twin Peaks thesis (pinned tweet).

Riddle me this... If crypto just runs off the ISM and it topped in March 2021 then why did we get a second HIGHER peak in November 2021 ??? All social and risk metrics topped at the same time as the ISM as well... It's almost as if 🤔

🎄 FIRST PEAK IS IN "Don't let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner”. As I predicted >1.5 years ago, October 6th was the top for ₿itcoin in 2025. BTC only reaching 50% of my price target is what really threw me off with my original thesis. Lesson here: Time > Price ₿ITCOIN CYCLE THESIS: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1771292413799346592 One of the most painful things is when your thesis is correct and you do not follow your own rules. That’s called GREED. Again, my biggest mistake this cycle, as goes with 99% of traders. 🌲 Having said all that, my Twin Peaks thesis remains in tact as long as we see promising numbers from the ISM PMI in the coming months. TWIN PEAKS: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1976426159719305720?s=20 I of course did not expect the Government Shutdown Black Swan Event and the liquidity drain it would have on the economy and risk markets. If you were one of the few geniuses who sold the pico-top, congrats 👏 If you did not and are wondering what to do now, selling into a complete bloodbath is never a wise idea. In all prior cycles, after BTC lost the 50WMA with two consecutive closes below, that was the final nail in the coffin for the cycle. 50WMA ANALYSIS: x.com/jonnieking/status/1895595772172763586?s=46 After BTC lost it in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, there was a failed relief rally back to the 50WMA which took ~2-3 months to get to. This is what I expect to happen, although in early to mid December considering we’ve had the worst Q4 performance in market history these past couple months. This should setup the long-fabled “Santa Rally” 🎅🏻 MARKET EXIT STRATEGY: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1988027233072804366?s=20 At this time, everyone will think we are going to break ATHs and the 4-year cycle is dead and TA is BS etc, but they’ll be wrong as always. Depending on what PA does over the next few weeks, the 50WMA should be around the $100k level, so just watch it closely. This is where I’ll be exiting 50-75% of all positions. After the 50WMA retest fails, I expect a retest of $70k, which was my original bear market target in Q4 2026 (see BTC cycle thesis above). This assumes we form a bottom very soon, otherwise we’ll retest $70k first before the 50WMA retest. If that does not hold, the 200WMA will be the final bear market target. Right now it’s at $55,5 but that will be lower by the time it gets there (prob $50k), so watch that very closely as well. LONG LIVE THE 4-YEAR CYCLE, which SPX and NDX also follow. x.com/JonnieKing/status/1962301562350702792 Make sure to thank all the talking heads and macro gurus who tricked you into thinking otherwise. Yes, it’s still a 4-year cycle even when we have a second top in April 2026, similar to all the past cycles. TAKEAWAY: Don’t trade the market you want, trade the market you’re given.

Zcash is one of those things that has thrown me off the most these past couple months. Everything else including BTC has been nuking, but ZEC has shown insane strength. It now appears this dino-coin is nearing the end of its run. 🚩 Double Top formed after impulsive 5-wave move. 🚩 Doji Candle followed by Bearish Engulfing on the Daily 🚩 Exaggerated Bearish Divergence on the RSI 🚩 Euphoria has been diminishing from the TL ⚠️ If it loses the 9EMA, this should confirm the next corrective wave down. I like the ideology behind Zcash and what it offers to the market, but it has no right to be pumping with ₿itcoin nuking.

BOTTOM IS IN ⚠️ Need to reclaim ~$95k within the next couple days to confirm, but I’m confident. 🐉 Printed a Dragonfly Doji Reversal candlestick with a Volume breakout to accompany. 🐉 RSI also sitting at lowest since Liberation Day. 🐉 Death Cross historically marks bottoms. 🐉 This 29% correction lines up perfectly with prior ones before next impulsive move up.

Receiving the end of cycle calls / texts from normie friends - one of my best indicators. Bullish Divergence on the Daily. Need some closes above the EMA9 ~$103k to confirm. Then $107,5 next up.

It’s only Tuesday, everyone RELAX. Still a long way from a Weekly Close below the 50WMA for BTC RSI is at the Liberation Day lows, and you know what happened after that. Note: this is the shallowest pullback to the 50WMA all cycle for bitcoin, which is in-line with late cycle behavior. In other words, this correction won’t take as long either. We could see a Weekly Close below the 50WMA to shake everyone out, then have a bullish engulfing the following week to send us to the long awaited promise land we call VALHALLA. In the small chance bulls cannot recover from this, below is a link to my 50WMA analysis that I put out back in February before everyone ran with my work. Stay vigilant folks.

We had a similar setup at the end of September of 2021 where BTC then rallied a week later ~75% over the next few weeks. However, every other time this bearish cross occurred in the past, ₿itcoin has spent at least a couple months trying to reclaim the 200DMA. Currently PA has closed the Day below the 200DMA. Bulls CANNOT afford a Weekly close below $106k, which is well outside the DANGER ZONE and .382 Fib GOOD NEWS: An Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has formed. Bulls need some big volume days to come reverse the localized downtrend ASAP. If not, the 50WMA will be tested ~$103k. If that happens, Bulls must not show any weakness nor allow Weekly Closes below it.

GOLD prints its 2nd consecutive bearish candle on the Weekly Close 🛎️ PA respected my boundaries and closed just above the DANGER ZONE ⚠️ Note the test of the WEMA9 & .382 Fib 🤓 I very much expect this next Weekly Close to be well within the danger zone borders.

The RRP is tapped out. The Fed Balance Sheet is irrelevant. Now is time for the TGA to shine.