jonnieking

Today’s PA confirmed an interesting theory I’ve had where liquidity reaches risk assets faster as the business cycle picks up. I wrote about this in depth in my “Twin Peaks” cycle top thesis (pinned tweet). We were charting Total Global Liquidity with a 12-week lead against BTC before the rate cut in September, and then we got a 1-point higher reading in the ISM PMI, which I believe accelerated the liquidity cycle by a couple weeks. I think for every 25 bps rate cut, we will see TGL accelerate by 2-weeks. The next rate cut is expected at the October 29th FOMC. It will be interesting to track liquidity flows and the ISM PMI after the next rate cut to see how they adapt to markets. The GOLD / BTC chart confirms this acceleration, as GOLD typically has a near 1:1 ratio with TGL. I was one of the first analysts to point out this signal earlier in year before all your favorite large accounts ran with it (go figure). This acceleration in TGL would mark our local bottom near perfectly. If this theory is correct and liquidity does accelerate by another 2 weeks, based on TGL, we would have the cycle’s first top somewhere around November 11th. Currently it’s the 25th with a 10-week lead. That would coincide with my OG ₿itcoin cycle analysis that I put out over 1.5 years ago, where I said the cycle top would be between OCTOBER 6th, which was already a local top, and NOVEMBER 9th. However, there is a discrepancy with the GOLD / BTC chart. The local top would be around December 3rd. It’s currently the 17th with a 10-week lead. I think GOLD has overshot TGL simply based on bull market mechanics creating a parabola. To sum it up, stay vigilant over these next few months, and take nothing for granted. The first peak will for sure come sooner than you think. Going to be fascinating to follow these liquidity flows, at the very least.

Ladies and Gents, the 200D Retest Prophecy has been FULFILLED! At 186 days, this was the second longest retest after a Death Cross in Bitcoin's history. If PA convincingly reclaims the 50MA, that should mark the bottom. PA looks like it will close the day outside of the DANGER ZONE, so I'm hopeful 🤓

How hilarious is this - ₿itcoin ended up reaching a new ATH just 5 days after I expected. I was 2 days off on my last call if you remember. And the several before I nailed to the day. Remember all the grave-dancers last week who were showing you the decorrelation between BTC & Global Liquidity?? 🐤 chirp chirp 😂 It was clear the Treasury General Account was the cause for this deviation, therefore I added it on this chart alongside Total Global Liquidity to monitor more closely. Note - the TGA is already included in the TGL index, but it appears to hold much more weight so it’s best to look at it alongside. I also took out the inverted DXY since it’s been tracking near 1 to 1 and was used simply to show confluence. Now that Fiscal Year Q1 2026 has started, the TGA refill is complete, which will finance the ~$325 Billion outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill for defense, border security etc. This will also be financed in the form of short-term T-Bill issuance (what I've written about before). Then we see the trickle down effect as money makes it’s way through the economy and the business cycle booms which is tracked through the ISM PMI. The latest print on Sept. 30th showed a 1-point uptick now at 49.1, which is a point higher than last month’s reading. I’m confident the next several months will show readings above 50 which show continued growth in the business cycle and health of the overall economy. To all the haterz - FU HIGHER 🚀

This played out nice 🌬️ $FARTCOIN issuers better close the Week green and retest the 9WEMA soon otherwise could face another ~30% to the downside.

Back in on the PUMP trade 🚀 Had a full 50% retrace on its SOL pair which should be enough ammo for the next leg higher. Need to have several daily closes above the 20MA for confirmation. *NOTE* I'm only trading SPL pairs rn. This way I can maintain constant exposure to SOL even if my bids do not hit and minimize the downside.

Still kinda shocked at how terrible the MSTR chart is. Working on its 6th consecutive week below the 50WMA. What a complete disaster Saylor If PA doesn't start showing some real strength here off the .236 Fib then down to ~$235 she blow 🌬️

P.S. BTC still on track to follow the GOLD parabola with this 10-12 week fractal which we should see between Thanksgiving and Christmas 🦃🎅 Will be following GOLD a bit more closely as Total Global Liquidity gave its first real fake-out showing ATH at EOM.

I’ll be the first to admit I failed to closely follow and analyze the impact of the Treasury General Account (TGA). We all know it’s a liquidity suck on ₿itcoin and cryptocurrencies, which are the most highly sensitive assets to liquidity, but have you ever dove into the data to see just how impactful it is? I went through all the refills and calculated how much it drew down the BTC price. Note how TGA refills also marked cycle tops in 2017 and 2021. This really is something to closely monitor going forward alongside Total Global Liquidity (TGL). What I have found is when TGA refills are occurring, they have more impact on the price of BTC than TGL. We can see this in the current state of market, where TGL is at an ATH and the TGA is currently being refilled. GOOD NEWS: The TGA refill is just about complete 🏁 Moon on brave soldiers 🌛

₿itcoin testing the perimeter of the DANGER ZONE ⚠️ Thankfully closed inside of it. Notice how well PA respects this zone. Bulls really need to step up here, otherwise the long awaited retest of the 200MA awaits BTC at $104k. It has to retest there eventually nonetheless. Note the RSI is nearly at the level we bottomed on Liberation Day.

Pretty wild day in the crypto market. BTC Bears closed below the 100MA, but thankfully right above the .236 Fib and avoided the DANGER ZONE ⚠️ Bulls need a big next couple of days. Can't hang out here for too long. RSI is looking healthy after this reset tho. How you feeling? Bullish or Bearish?