jonnieking

The RRP is tapped out. The Fed Balance Sheet is irrelevant. Now is time for the TGA to shine.

MARKETS ARE SIGNALING RISK-ON 🔥 GOLD is so unbelievably COOKED 👨‍🍳 3 Black Crowes printed on the Daily, with a decisive close below the 20MA 🗡️ Waiting on the final nail in the coffin to close below the DANGER ZONE ~$3,900 where we will then see GOLD retest the 50MA along with the 50% Gann retrace $~3,750 ⚠️ I very much expect the rotation into BTC soon 👑

Solana is looking good here 👍🏽 Reclaimed the 50WMA and closed above the 50% Gann Level. Note the Bullish Engulfing candle for the Weekly Close. However SOL Still trading within the DANGER ZONE ⚠️ Need these next couple weeks to close outside of this POI. You can see the Liberation Day lower trendline still remains intact for support and we had the Bullish Cross a few weeks ago on the 20 / 50 WMA 🤓

SAVED BY THE BELL 🛎️ ₿itcoin avoided forming a 3 Black Crowes pattern and has now reclaimed the 20WMA along with the .236 Fib, closing above the Danger Zone ⚠️ BTC now needs some decisive Weekly Closes above these key levels in order for the next leg up. Don’t F this up Bulls!

MASSIVE BEARISH ENGULFING FORMING ON THE GOLD DAILY CHART. Down ~7% just on the day alone. ~$2 TRILLION has been wiped out on its market cap, the equivalent of Bitcoin’s entire MC. We can see the rotation into BTC in real-time here. If GOLD Closes below the DANGER ZONE, it’s game-over for everyone’s favorite pet rock 🪙

Not sure how I continue to amaze myself, but I do 🤓 Notice how those MMs respected my DANGER ZONE POI to the dollar? Thankfully BTC did not close the Week outside the DZ. The battle between Bulls and Bears is FIERCE 🔥 Bulls cannot afford another blue weekly close. If so, the 50WMA retest ~102k will be inevitable. Bulls need to reclaim and close this upcoming week above the 20WMA and .236 Fib A close ~$116k would be super bullish. That should be enough ammo to spark the long awaited parabola that UpTober has historically brought us.

Today’s PA confirmed an interesting theory I’ve had where liquidity reaches risk assets faster as the business cycle picks up. I wrote about this in depth in my “Twin Peaks” cycle top thesis (pinned tweet). We were charting Total Global Liquidity with a 12-week lead against BTC before the rate cut in September, and then we got a 1-point higher reading in the ISM PMI, which I believe accelerated the liquidity cycle by a couple weeks. I think for every 25 bps rate cut, we will see TGL accelerate by 2-weeks. The next rate cut is expected at the October 29th FOMC. It will be interesting to track liquidity flows and the ISM PMI after the next rate cut to see how they adapt to markets. The GOLD / BTC chart confirms this acceleration, as GOLD typically has a near 1:1 ratio with TGL. I was one of the first analysts to point out this signal earlier in year before all your favorite large accounts ran with it (go figure). This acceleration in TGL would mark our local bottom near perfectly. If this theory is correct and liquidity does accelerate by another 2 weeks, based on TGL, we would have the cycle’s first top somewhere around November 11th. Currently it’s the 25th with a 10-week lead. That would coincide with my OG ₿itcoin cycle analysis that I put out over 1.5 years ago, where I said the cycle top would be between OCTOBER 6th, which was already a local top, and NOVEMBER 9th. However, there is a discrepancy with the GOLD / BTC chart. The local top would be around December 3rd. It’s currently the 17th with a 10-week lead. I think GOLD has overshot TGL simply based on bull market mechanics creating a parabola. To sum it up, stay vigilant over these next few months, and take nothing for granted. The first peak will for sure come sooner than you think. Going to be fascinating to follow these liquidity flows, at the very least.

Ladies and Gents, the 200D Retest Prophecy has been FULFILLED! At 186 days, this was the second longest retest after a Death Cross in Bitcoin's history. If PA convincingly reclaims the 50MA, that should mark the bottom. PA looks like it will close the day outside of the DANGER ZONE, so I'm hopeful 🤓

How hilarious is this - ₿itcoin ended up reaching a new ATH just 5 days after I expected. I was 2 days off on my last call if you remember. And the several before I nailed to the day. Remember all the grave-dancers last week who were showing you the decorrelation between BTC & Global Liquidity?? 🐤 chirp chirp 😂 It was clear the Treasury General Account was the cause for this deviation, therefore I added it on this chart alongside Total Global Liquidity to monitor more closely. Note - the TGA is already included in the TGL index, but it appears to hold much more weight so it’s best to look at it alongside. I also took out the inverted DXY since it’s been tracking near 1 to 1 and was used simply to show confluence. Now that Fiscal Year Q1 2026 has started, the TGA refill is complete, which will finance the ~$325 Billion outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill for defense, border security etc. This will also be financed in the form of short-term T-Bill issuance (what I've written about before). Then we see the trickle down effect as money makes it’s way through the economy and the business cycle booms which is tracked through the ISM PMI. The latest print on Sept. 30th showed a 1-point uptick now at 49.1, which is a point higher than last month’s reading. I’m confident the next several months will show readings above 50 which show continued growth in the business cycle and health of the overall economy. To all the haterz - FU HIGHER 🚀

This played out nice 🌬️ $FARTCOIN issuers better close the Week green and retest the 9WEMA soon otherwise could face another ~30% to the downside.