Technical analysis by jonnieking about Symbol BTC on 11/20/2025

🎄 FIRST PEAK IS IN "Don't let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner”. As I predicted >1.5 years ago, October 6th was the top for ₿itcoin in 2025. BTC only reaching 50% of my price target is what really threw me off with my original thesis. Lesson here: Time > Price ₿ITCOIN CYCLE THESIS: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1771292413799346592 One of the most painful things is when your thesis is correct and you do not follow your own rules. That’s called GREED. Again, my biggest mistake this cycle, as goes with 99% of traders. 🌲 Having said all that, my Twin Peaks thesis remains in tact as long as we see promising numbers from the ISM PMI in the coming months. TWIN PEAKS: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1976426159719305720?s=20 I of course did not expect the Government Shutdown Black Swan Event and the liquidity drain it would have on the economy and risk markets. If you were one of the few geniuses who sold the pico-top, congrats 👏 If you did not and are wondering what to do now, selling into a complete bloodbath is never a wise idea. In all prior cycles, after BTC lost the 50WMA with two consecutive closes below, that was the final nail in the coffin for the cycle. 50WMA ANALYSIS: x.com/jonnieking/status/1895595772172763586?s=46 After BTC lost it in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, there was a failed relief rally back to the 50WMA which took ~2-3 months to get to. This is what I expect to happen, although in early to mid December considering we’ve had the worst Q4 performance in market history these past couple months. This should setup the long-fabled “Santa Rally” 🎅🏻 MARKET EXIT STRATEGY: x.com/JonnieKing/status/1988027233072804366?s=20 At this time, everyone will think we are going to break ATHs and the 4-year cycle is dead and TA is BS etc, but they’ll be wrong as always. Depending on what PA does over the next few weeks, the 50WMA should be around the $100k level, so just watch it closely. This is where I’ll be exiting 50-75% of all positions. After the 50WMA retest fails, I expect a retest of $70k, which was my original bear market target in Q4 2026 (see BTC cycle thesis above). This assumes we form a bottom very soon, otherwise we’ll retest $70k first before the 50WMA retest. If that does not hold, the 200WMA will be the final bear market target. Right now it’s at $55,5 but that will be lower by the time it gets there (prob $50k), so watch that very closely as well. LONG LIVE THE 4-YEAR CYCLE, which SPX and NDX also follow. x.com/JonnieKing/status/1962301562350702792 Make sure to thank all the talking heads and macro gurus who tricked you into thinking otherwise. Yes, it’s still a 4-year cycle even when we have a second top in April 2026, similar to all the past cycles. TAKEAWAY: Don’t trade the market you want, trade the market you’re given.