Technical analysis by jonnieking about Symbol BTC on 11/29/2025

In every prior cycle when BTC lost the 200DMA it retested it well into the midterm year. Everyone still believed in the 4-year cycle even with this failed relief rally. But all of a sudden this time is supposed to be different 🤓 My base-case is that we do finally see a proper business cycle in 2026. I would give it a 50% probability that BTC does see a higher price IF that does occur. My hesitation here is that BTC got a higher high in November 2021 with a declining ISM vs March. Additionally, in April 2014 and February 2018 the ISM printed a slightly higher high, but BTC printed a lower high. This is the conundrum ₿itcoin has with the ISM, and part of the Twin Peaks thesis (pinned tweet).