askocaturk

Hey everyone, I’m back after a catastrophic six weeks of decline in the crypto market. Unfortunately, having an altcoin-heavy portfolio put me in a difficult position — which is usually the case when you follow that strategy. Most of the time it’s painful, but when the timing is right, it can reward you extremely well, as long as you’re not buying heavily at the top. Let me share my thoughts and expectations. It appears we experienced a significant liquidity issue over the past two months. The U.S. government reopening for two months gave the market some breathing room. It’s been more than two weeks since then, yet liquidity still hasn’t fully circulated. Even so, I believe the worst is likely behind us for the next 1–2 months. At this stage, we’re either still in a bear market and entering an A-B-C corrective wave, or we’ve already found the bottom and are preparing for a strong move upward. A strong upward move itself has two possible paths: either the true bull market begins now, or we see one leg up followed by a correction, and then the actual major move begins. It’s hard to say which scenario is more likely, but these are the three main possibilities I’m working with. That’s why I plan to make portfolio decisions in January. What I do know is that I’m currently positioned heavily in spot altcoins and BTC call options. Keep in mind that the U.S. midterm elections will take place in November 2026, and I expect risk-on markets to benefit during that period. Historically, parabolic bullish phases tend to last around 5–8 months. This suggests that the major move might begin around April or May, assuming the cycle peak arrives in November/December 2026. In that case, the current move upward would likely create a local top around January, followed by a correction in February/March. (This is the scenario I’m leaning toward.) However, if the market shows exceptional strength — especially this week — it could spark a broader risk-on sentiment and trigger a sharp reversal of the suppressed price action. If that happens, the parabolic phase could begin this week and run for 3–5 months. Fundamentally, I believe everything is aligned for crypto, but prices have been suppressed for a long time and are essentially ready to move once liquidity returns — and liquidity seems close. On top of that, sentiment is extremely negative: many people are discouraged, and even well-known technical analysts have recently turned bearish. If I were a market maker, this would be the perfect moment to drive prices upward. This is my second expected scenario. For the bearish scenario, I’ll reassess everything in January. Until then, I prefer not to make any further comments. We’ll see how things unfold. These are just my personal views and how I’m positioning myself based on them. Please do your own research. Cheers

Hey all, Today I tried something new. Using historical Bitcoin data and an AI-driven model, I generated a forward-looking price outlook based on cyclical behavior and the probability distribution of previous similar patterns within the 90th percentile range. In the chart, * Green lines represent the upper (bull) price paths for 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. * Red lines represent the lower (bear) paths. * The dark-blue line shows the median scenario across all timeframes. With these paths, it’s possible to construct extreme bull and extreme bear targets for different time-price points. The main purpose of generating this graph is to identify the extreme high/low boundaries and then monitor price action within a probabilistic range that holds ~90% validity. This helps me decide when to risk-on or risk-off my positions. In my own evaluation, I’m ignoring time deviations of up to ~4–6 weeks. Note that for both upper and lower scenarios, I will still combine these model levels with values derived from several TA methods. Some of those levels match closely with the model, while others are further apart. Beyond this chart, BTC price action hasn’t been strong for the past 4–6 weeks, and pessimistic views are increasingly common on CT. It seems liquidity remains a key factor for Bitcoin’s upward momentum—and we haven’t seen much recently. The impact of the liquidity injection with the government reopening may start to show in the next 7–10 days, so my expectation is either a move up next week or a final dip followed by an upward move the week after. This is still my base scenario, even if it differs from what the model shows. :) Let’s see how things unfold. It’s always useful to explore different strategic perspectives. This content includes analysis outputs and personal opinions. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any decisions. Cheers!

Hey everyone, After the recent streak of red weeks, I don’t anticipate any major international or geopolitical issues in the next 1–2 months. With the U.S. government reopening, I see significant potential through the end of the year and possibly into Q1 2026. I believe we’ve reached some critical levels for BTC, and it might be ready to take off soon—maybe next week or even this weekend. Let’s see how things unfold. These are my opinions and not financial advise. Cheers!

Hey there, It’s been a while since we’ve been in this choppy environment with mostly sideways price movements. I expect this to continue for a few more weeks. Either now or within a month, I anticipate this sideways phase to come to an end, followed by a breakout above the resistance zone around 120K. For that to happen, we first need to break and hold above 116K for a while. If we manage to break the resistance zone, the price could quickly move toward 150K. A move beyond 150K is also possible, but we’ll need to monitor the market closely when that happens. On the downside, I expect the 98–100K zone to act as strong support and keep the price above this area. If we see 98-100K, I would consider it a buying opportunity. However, if the price breaks below this level and closes there for three consecutive days, it could indicate that the cycle is over — and everyone goes home. We'll also closely watch this if happens. Let’s see how things play out. I’m still optimistic, considering potential positive catalysts such as: - The reopening of the U.S. government - A resolution to the China–U.S. tariff issues - Possible FED rate cuts - The end of QT (and maybe even the start of QE) - The end of the Ukraine–Russia war - Positive crypto-related news (e.g., ETH ETF approval, potential altcoin ETF approvals) So overall, I still believe there are positive narratives that could drive the market higher. These are just my personal opinions and not financial advice. Please do your own research. Cheers!*ETH ETF staking approval

Hey everyone, The leader of my portfolio by share is Avalanche (AVAX), making up about 17%. I see huge potential in its wide range of use cases, and I’m especially excited about the prospects of AVAX ETFs, international collaborations in gaming and RWA industries, and the strength of the core team as we head into the next altcoin move. I believe AVAX could potentially climb into the Top 10 in crypto market cap during this cycle. For the first target, I see the $50–55 range as a reasonable zone for some profit taking or portfolio rotation, though I haven’t finalized my plan yet. My main goal is to hold at least until ATH levels, but ideally I’d like to see it reach around $250. As always, these are just my personal thoughts and not financial advice. Please do your own research. Cheers!

Hey everyone, The third coin in my portfolio is Ethena (ENA), making up about 12% of my holdings. In a world where stablecoins are becoming increasingly important and widely adopted, I see ENA as almost a must-have in any portfolio. It has already performed well while most other coins were moving sideways, and is now in a consolidation phase. It might revisit the yellow support lines, but whether from here or from those levels, I believe it will eventually push toward ATH levels. That’s my Target 1, where I plan to sell about 1/4 of my position into USDT or rotate into other coins. My main plan is to hold at least until the $4–5 range, and I don’t intend to leave any tokens untouched once we get close to $10. As always, these are just my personal thoughts and not financial advice. Please do your own research. Cheers!

Hey everyone, Here’s the second altcoin in my portfolio, making up about 12% of my holdings. LayerZero already has some strong collaborations and will likely play a major role as institutional money flows into the market. If the price makes a sudden move up to Target 1, I may sell around 1/3 of my position to rotate into other coins or partially into USDT. For the bigger picture, I see double digits as a very realistic target. My plan is to hold until at least $20, and I expect to have exited fully by the time it reaches the $40 range. As always, these are just my personal thoughts and not financial advice. Please do your own research. Cheers!

Hey everyone, Today I’d like to share one of my larger altcoin positions. EIGEN currently makes up about 13% of my portfolio. I’m particularly bullish here, as I believe the approval of an Ethereum ETF with staking will benefit Eigen the most, along with ETHFI. After a solid consolidation phase, EIGEN looks like it could be ready for a strong move if we get the altcoin rally I expect this quarter. For Target 1, I may sell around 1/3 or 1/4 of my position to rotate into other altcoins and perhaps a bit into USDT. However, my main plan is to hold for double digits, with the aim of taking more profits once it reaches the $20+ range. The only concern is that many people are already expecting a rally this quarter—so we’ll see how it plays out. As always, these are just my personal thoughts and not financial advice. Please do your own research. Cheers!

I found a fractal which coincides with my short/mid term expectations. Let's keep it to follow. This is just a fractal and better you do not overvalue! Do your own research! Cheers!

Hey all, I've just found a fractal pattern for BTC showing that the price action these days behave very similar to the one in 2020 ATH break. It doesn't mean it will still continue to follow but shows something interesting. Cheers!