Technical analysis by askocaturk about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (23 hour ago)

Hey everyone, I’m back after a catastrophic six weeks of decline in the crypto market. Unfortunately, having an altcoin-heavy portfolio put me in a difficult position — which is usually the case when you follow that strategy. Most of the time it’s painful, but when the timing is right, it can reward you extremely well, as long as you’re not buying heavily at the top. Let me share my thoughts and expectations. It appears we experienced a significant liquidity issue over the past two months. The U.S. government reopening for two months gave the market some breathing room. It’s been more than two weeks since then, yet liquidity still hasn’t fully circulated. Even so, I believe the worst is likely behind us for the next 1–2 months. At this stage, we’re either still in a bear market and entering an A-B-C corrective wave, or we’ve already found the bottom and are preparing for a strong move upward. A strong upward move itself has two possible paths: either the true bull market begins now, or we see one leg up followed by a correction, and then the actual major move begins. It’s hard to say which scenario is more likely, but these are the three main possibilities I’m working with. That’s why I plan to make portfolio decisions in January. What I do know is that I’m currently positioned heavily in spot altcoins and BTC call options. Keep in mind that the U.S. midterm elections will take place in November 2026, and I expect risk-on markets to benefit during that period. Historically, parabolic bullish phases tend to last around 5–8 months. This suggests that the major move might begin around April or May, assuming the cycle peak arrives in November/December 2026. In that case, the current move upward would likely create a local top around January, followed by a correction in February/March. (This is the scenario I’m leaning toward.) However, if the market shows exceptional strength — especially this week — it could spark a broader risk-on sentiment and trigger a sharp reversal of the suppressed price action. If that happens, the parabolic phase could begin this week and run for 3–5 months. Fundamentally, I believe everything is aligned for crypto, but prices have been suppressed for a long time and are essentially ready to move once liquidity returns — and liquidity seems close. On top of that, sentiment is extremely negative: many people are discouraged, and even well-known technical analysts have recently turned bearish. If I were a market maker, this would be the perfect moment to drive prices upward. This is my second expected scenario. For the bearish scenario, I’ll reassess everything in January. Until then, I prefer not to make any further comments. We’ll see how things unfold. These are just my personal views and how I’m positioning myself based on them. Please do your own research. Cheers