VROCKSTAR

10/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: CRCL 3Q beat by MSD... but valuation no ty - for anyone that cares u can track revenue pretty easily using defillama defillama.com/protocol/fees/circle - the alst 2 quarters correlate perfectly, basically sum these things up and multiply by 1.135 (that's the plug it seems) - so it would seem that a cons. of $700mm of revenue in 3Q is probably light by $35-40mm or about a MSD beat - if that valuation and the stock comp weren't so offensive, i might punt. heck, if this thing dumps into results w/ beta... i think it could be a good play, but if it's just going to waffle here... no clue what the market will do - realistically it's still too expensive on basically every metric - the SBC really wants to make me puke in my mouth. i just avoid stuff like that b/c i don't like holding employee bags looking to exit. - but maybe there's a trade - just flagging - for now i stick to obtc and mtplf on the btc side bc i get a nice discount. that being said i'm about 10% obtc and 5% mtplf at the moment. keeping it pretty light, still. book is 65% cash after recovering from those whacky quantum shorts that finally started to pay me and where saas ripped (ty adbe, fi off lows) and now doing work on $s. more interesting all of it ... than circle. ew. circle. V

9/11/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: HOOD Seems kinda expensive no? - why are people valuing banks like tech stocks? - 50x PE? 12x book? - if you say so. no thanks. - great company. great product. zero interest in owning this stonk here V

9/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ How i'm positioned ep 3 - it's hard not to notice the q's and the spy's are about 50 bps away from a gap fill - while i'm a strong believer in the efficient market hypothesis (lol - i'm kidding), with googl's timely headline driving risk higher, today's whatever bid getting bid and "rate cuts" as a known known driving "narrative" bid... it all just feels so roll-over-y - lulu tn just basically confirms... besides having ms sweeney providing green dillys across basement dwelling "portfolios"... the consumer is, has been, and will be cooked like a road kill goose... and rate cuts won't help - even my ONON feels like something i need to manage more lightly. - it. is. just. hard. to. own. anything. so i just took down risk a lot. i'm about 30% cash. tempted to get to 35 or 40% - still packing a solid 55% obtc, but well hedged w/ ibit puts (as i've described) - onon leaps at 5% at 3-1 (but honestly it's probably too big) - smlr to play the mstr headline, but it's honestly just an obtc/ mnav arb exercise w/ shorter term triggers and allows me to keep risk on exposure to btc while managing cash - nxt still a staple, but it's only 5% of the portfolio at 2-1 leverage (so 10% gross). feels like the only one i have confidence in, but it's performed lol. *don't cut winners, V* so i draw out some tea leaves green lines not as a prediction but as a thesis for what i think could be a path given liquidity constraints and how rate cuts won't immediately help this. the memes are bearish divergence all over. correlation 1. these things v likely to trigger leverage liquidations all over on the way down. i think funds might be (and should be) willing to short these too which could amplify the tape. this all just feels like we're in a seasonal wtf is going on. hard to own anything, even btc unhedged. 20% ytd and always above 0% still feels "good" but has been too much lift and the juice for the squeeze is like hitting a hawt gurl pilates after hour passion project establishment in LA... $20 bucks for the instagram photo. too many ppl posting PnL gainz is exhausting and a sign. all i'm saying is... make sure you know what you own. you are taking note of all the strangeness around. acknowledge liquidity conditions are not loose and rate cuts won't immediately help (rates are high! people are cooked! we need rates to BURN to really boost liquidity). finally. remember - bankers like to pay themselves one more time into YE. don't become their exit liquidity here and also their source of assets toward the dippity do dah. hand sitting feels smart. V

8/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ How I'm positioned ep 2 - TV's tools suck so bad that i went to check something and it deleted my note in draft, so instead of just saying eff it, i'll retype the TL;DR points - index headed higher into YE, but feels like needs to reset either a bit lower or grind sideways before it can "leap" - a ton of names trade MSD++ fcf yields and grow MSD-DD+ and are easy MT buys, hard to differentiate, but supportive of index too beyond mega cap - that being said, hard to beat oppty cost of OBTC given S-1 filed this week, i'd link it but tradingview doesn't like me helping people do DD - so go to EDGAR to pull it up how i'm positioned 65% OBTC/ 35% ibit gross short. playing the spread 12% discount to spot on OBTC as we speak. preparing for this to close in anywhere from 1 to 3 months. best guess would be it's LIVE by end of oct OTC:OBTC/BINANCE:BTCUSDT/0.000324 NXT at 8% notional/ 15% gross (ITM leaps) Deck at 5% notional/ 15% gross (ITM leaps) ONON at 2% notional/ 8% gross (ITM leaps) GAMB at 2% notional/ 6% gross SES 5% but covered above $1 thru oct 10-15% cash for ammo, prob to further stack $OBTC. have a good weekend. V

8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ How i'm positioned - 2x leverage on the whole book. 75% at risk so 150% gross - so 25% powder 47% obtc 30% nxt (12.5% leaps) 36% deck (ST and leaps for 6.5%) 27% lulu (ST gas for 1% lol!) 8% mstr (ST gas for 80 bps lol!) 5% gme (ST gas for 40 bps!) 5% ses (covered with calls at 1 strike already) be well. let's attack monday. if we dip monday i think >50% chance that's the low if we don't, i think >30% chance we go higher so i'm bidding this selectively w balance of ST gas and high conviction plays. V

8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: MSTR Selling spot and buying MSTR - keeping it (purposefully) short today for everyone's benefit - sold a bit of OBTC (which is nearly 15% off spot, e.g. $100k/BTC) to buy MSTR MSD exposure here - why? - 1.6x mNAV is lowest it's been (nearly ever in current BTC move) - Saylor not going to hit the ATM sub 2.5x, will run it hot - Latest product further augments this runway to value accretion - BTC still remains REALLY well bid in this current tape - So math is like this - ROE of BTC in "conservative" sense is 25% - Kc (cost of capital) for Strategy is 10% again (conservative, it's really sub 10%) - so ROE/Kc (without growth) = 2.5x book. - A real ROE for BTC (remember this is permanent capital he's tapping, so no asset-liability mis-match) is 35% - True Kc for this is sub 10%, but let's still say 10%. that's 3.5x book. Therefore let's even say 2x book (below both of the above) is 2/1.6 = 25% upside. If/do you think that BTC can go back to low 90s, ofc this might contract further (the 1.6x) but at the same time, you have EVEN higher implied ROE and R/R only improves. So at a minimum, i'd guess your R/R is "balanced" here in the most conservative scenarios. And if we do get BTC bid, this will rocket at this stage thru YE and far exceed px appreciation of it's BTC pair. Ok that was longer than I intended. Felt important to convey math and up/downside parameters. Be well. Everyone loses money in correlation 1. Just make sure you find the betas that have the first bids. Right now that's BTC and some quality names doing 6-7% fcf yields and growing. I like OBTC (adding fuel w/ my MSTR calls) NXT DECK LULU FI <3 Vmoving this trade/ exposure back into OBTC ("spot at a discount") i really like mstr sub 1.5x mnav. hard to pass up OBTC at 12% discount to spot. enjoy. i'll be back w more comments in time. V

7/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: META And u think they'll miss? - we continue to collect data pts that the consumer is spending like a drunken sailor and somehow the market still wants to bid the trash meme stocks that will burn cash until kingdom come - amazon prime day - dubious/ but still... government data - yesterday... visa... booking - we've seen the "oh look at DECK , we thought people stopped buying shoes" reaction - the reality is... the wealth effect has had a bit of a boomerang in my estimation from mar/apl stonk lows to new highs and "all normal" (big quotes) - so as the king funnel to driving all this conversion, great tools... i don't think zuck's capex and hiring spending is really going to drive the big picture here on results. a strong ads result pays for all this spending... in what, a quarter? - so no i don't have a crystal ball. but i'm surprised a lot of HQ names that are consumer-adjacent (esp such a dominant portal to the universe-META) aren't ripping into results and it's a harder call. - this one is a buy into results - it's a dip buy on a miss - and it's a buy, probably, even if the stock rips $1000 by year end is my best guess V

7/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: TSLA Duh - ppl focused on ST FCF (all over X!) is 100% of the reason why when you put the pieces together, you realize that while ST this might not behave like anyone expects... LT, TSLA is v likely going to in, elon's own words, be the largest cap in the history of capital markets - two leading robots with leadership position in IRL AI - profitable, is all that matters - have not yet hit the S-curve was super lucky to trim some of this last week now i'm back to sizing into a full position, not yet there like on that silly political dump, but i'm nearly 10% (20% is my max size). Va comment from s/o the other day (friday i think) asked wtf i did with my tsla was keeping the book trimmer on friday even given my net optimism coming into the week (go read QQQ post i made then). while unclear what happens next.. i kept thinking about this dang lack of any position on TSLA over the weekend and "when i'd add it back". started re-accumulating, but just small. it's a 2% LEAP that's leveraged ~2-1, so it's still sub 5%. more of a valuation exercise at the moment and keeping a lot of powder dry as opposed to LT conviction - which remains totally unchanged. V

7/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: TSLA 20% position. - that's the message... refer to prior msg "buying all dips" - u do u VWhile I do not know Elon or Trump personally, I have seen a lot of feuds over the years. If you're Elon... you don't do this because a. you've gone off the rails with drugs (as CNN might have you believe... but if you're still watching CNN or teevee joke's on you, anyway) b. you're railing against "not getting what you want" (subsidies/ credits, favorable political treatment) c. you "believe in a different America" (because the one that stands today is the one that pays you well) You mock Trump BECAUSE YOU HOLD THE POWER. So if you're selling shares because you think somehow this will disadvantage Elon, I'll take the completely opposite POV. And think about it like this as well: if every emotion investor that cares about this soap opera and can't hold the shares sells... eventually they'll only become buyers. For scarce things that go up over time this becomes the natural progression. The paper hands do just that. The asset goes up. And they become buyers again, at a higher price. So what's the stock worth? I'll get into this *again*, in another post. I've given some prior probability thinking. The short of it is $10 bucks of EPS in 2 years on 40x discounted by a high Ke of 15% p/a means 10*40 = $400/1.15/1.15 = $302 <--- that's the starting point. Anything less than this IMVHO is buying value. As time marches on, this number goes higher. $250 is "cheap". Closer to $200 is basically... "V's going to make this a 50% position" situation. I don't think we get there, but alas, the money changers are greedy and cause lots of mayhem, so better be prepared and always have outs. Always have outs. Size manage. Have a good week my friends. V(room)speed.

7/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: META Still a buy sub $1k/shr - reality is, why would you bet against zuck - his platforms are hitting on all strides. he is willing to internally build the best AI when he's falling behind by hiring the best talent and it is a LOT cheaper to hire for collectively $500 mm than say pay billions for a developed product and internalize it. great move Zuck! - and their ad tools are second to none and don't suffer as much from "Google search" narrative as the ecosystem is one of those that's incrementally chipping away from Google. - at mid 20s + PE, the stock is not "cheap" but it's actually quite affordable for the environment we're in - some market POV: I think we've seen the "garden variety" pullback already. believe it or not... when you look at the individual names from recent highs, we've seen a lil 3 to 10% shuffle and not all on the same day (take for instance the TSLA dip the other day, large, and not on a day where nasdaq or other Mag7's were red). - i continue to see small caps failing on large cap peers - i see more money still floating lager caps higher at the expense of small caps, even tho it might look the opposite in the immediate term (this is a story as old as time... newbs chase quick thrills, get squashed and can afford less of the assets they should be buying to begin with). so word to the wise: if you've made some nice tendies lately on slightly more degen plays... buying stuff like Mag7's or even indices at highs is not necessarily a "bad" buy. - anyway i like META at sub $1k and sub 35x PE into the print - would like to own more, so would be buying dips - but think this is a winner in 2H Vwith those retail sales #s... amazon prime day... a friend's comments talking about spending (and he has some good ground level insights)... nike reporting "less bad" results etc. etc. and then you have the possible hoarding of spending in mar/apr as market tanks... then rebounds (so people catch back up)... stock ATH... i'd have to think META is going to report great results here and the dip is a good oppty even three-car-monte cvna might have a good quarter lmfao. i think mkt is probably concerned about how fast grok 4/ elon are moving on AI front and how much mark is spending for talent. but realistically... he's spending peanuts vs meta's FCF moat. and their real world data probably rivals google, tsla, msft... only a handful of companies. so that AI will get monetized v v quickly on their several 1B user platforms but all considered, meta looks like good beta here into their results. if we get a miss/ dip... i'll size it up (2-3x) and if it rips... great. V