VROCKSTAR

8/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ How I'm positioned ep 2 - TV's tools suck so bad that i went to check something and it deleted my note in draft, so instead of just saying eff it, i'll retype the TL;DR points - index headed higher into YE, but feels like needs to reset either a bit lower or grind sideways before it can "leap" - a ton of names trade MSD++ fcf yields and grow MSD-DD+ and are easy MT buys, hard to differentiate, but supportive of index too beyond mega cap - that being said, hard to beat oppty cost of OBTC given S-1 filed this week, i'd link it but tradingview doesn't like me helping people do DD - so go to EDGAR to pull it up how i'm positioned 65% OBTC/ 35% ibit gross short. playing the spread 12% discount to spot on OBTC as we speak. preparing for this to close in anywhere from 1 to 3 months. best guess would be it's LIVE by end of oct OTC:OBTC/BINANCE:BTCUSDT/0.000324 NXT at 8% notional/ 15% gross (ITM leaps) Deck at 5% notional/ 15% gross (ITM leaps) ONON at 2% notional/ 8% gross (ITM leaps) GAMB at 2% notional/ 6% gross SES 5% but covered above $1 thru oct 10-15% cash for ammo, prob to further stack $OBTC. have a good weekend. V

8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ How i'm positioned - 2x leverage on the whole book. 75% at risk so 150% gross - so 25% powder 47% obtc 30% nxt (12.5% leaps) 36% deck (ST and leaps for 6.5%) 27% lulu (ST gas for 1% lol!) 8% mstr (ST gas for 80 bps lol!) 5% gme (ST gas for 40 bps!) 5% ses (covered with calls at 1 strike already) be well. let's attack monday. if we dip monday i think >50% chance that's the low if we don't, i think >30% chance we go higher so i'm bidding this selectively w balance of ST gas and high conviction plays. V

8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: MSTR Selling spot and buying MSTR - keeping it (purposefully) short today for everyone's benefit - sold a bit of OBTC (which is nearly 15% off spot, e.g. $100k/BTC) to buy MSTR MSD exposure here - why? - 1.6x mNAV is lowest it's been (nearly ever in current BTC move) - Saylor not going to hit the ATM sub 2.5x, will run it hot - Latest product further augments this runway to value accretion - BTC still remains REALLY well bid in this current tape - So math is like this - ROE of BTC in "conservative" sense is 25% - Kc (cost of capital) for Strategy is 10% again (conservative, it's really sub 10%) - so ROE/Kc (without growth) = 2.5x book. - A real ROE for BTC (remember this is permanent capital he's tapping, so no asset-liability mis-match) is 35% - True Kc for this is sub 10%, but let's still say 10%. that's 3.5x book. Therefore let's even say 2x book (below both of the above) is 2/1.6 = 25% upside. If/do you think that BTC can go back to low 90s, ofc this might contract further (the 1.6x) but at the same time, you have EVEN higher implied ROE and R/R only improves. So at a minimum, i'd guess your R/R is "balanced" here in the most conservative scenarios. And if we do get BTC bid, this will rocket at this stage thru YE and far exceed px appreciation of it's BTC pair. Ok that was longer than I intended. Felt important to convey math and up/downside parameters. Be well. Everyone loses money in correlation 1. Just make sure you find the betas that have the first bids. Right now that's BTC and some quality names doing 6-7% fcf yields and growing. I like OBTC (adding fuel w/ my MSTR calls) NXT DECK LULU FI <3 Vmoving this trade/ exposure back into OBTC ("spot at a discount") i really like mstr sub 1.5x mnav. hard to pass up OBTC at 12% discount to spot. enjoy. i'll be back w more comments in time. V

7/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: META And u think they'll miss? - we continue to collect data pts that the consumer is spending like a drunken sailor and somehow the market still wants to bid the trash meme stocks that will burn cash until kingdom come - amazon prime day - dubious/ but still... government data - yesterday... visa... booking - we've seen the "oh look at DECK , we thought people stopped buying shoes" reaction - the reality is... the wealth effect has had a bit of a boomerang in my estimation from mar/apl stonk lows to new highs and "all normal" (big quotes) - so as the king funnel to driving all this conversion, great tools... i don't think zuck's capex and hiring spending is really going to drive the big picture here on results. a strong ads result pays for all this spending... in what, a quarter? - so no i don't have a crystal ball. but i'm surprised a lot of HQ names that are consumer-adjacent (esp such a dominant portal to the universe-META) aren't ripping into results and it's a harder call. - this one is a buy into results - it's a dip buy on a miss - and it's a buy, probably, even if the stock rips $1000 by year end is my best guess V

7/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: TSLA Duh - ppl focused on ST FCF (all over X!) is 100% of the reason why when you put the pieces together, you realize that while ST this might not behave like anyone expects... LT, TSLA is v likely going to in, elon's own words, be the largest cap in the history of capital markets - two leading robots with leadership position in IRL AI - profitable, is all that matters - have not yet hit the S-curve was super lucky to trim some of this last week now i'm back to sizing into a full position, not yet there like on that silly political dump, but i'm nearly 10% (20% is my max size). Va comment from s/o the other day (friday i think) asked wtf i did with my tsla was keeping the book trimmer on friday even given my net optimism coming into the week (go read QQQ post i made then). while unclear what happens next.. i kept thinking about this dang lack of any position on TSLA over the weekend and "when i'd add it back". started re-accumulating, but just small. it's a 2% LEAP that's leveraged ~2-1, so it's still sub 5%. more of a valuation exercise at the moment and keeping a lot of powder dry as opposed to LT conviction - which remains totally unchanged. V

7/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: TSLA 20% position. - that's the message... refer to prior msg "buying all dips" - u do u VWhile I do not know Elon or Trump personally, I have seen a lot of feuds over the years. If you're Elon... you don't do this because a. you've gone off the rails with drugs (as CNN might have you believe... but if you're still watching CNN or teevee joke's on you, anyway) b. you're railing against "not getting what you want" (subsidies/ credits, favorable political treatment) c. you "believe in a different America" (because the one that stands today is the one that pays you well) You mock Trump BECAUSE YOU HOLD THE POWER. So if you're selling shares because you think somehow this will disadvantage Elon, I'll take the completely opposite POV. And think about it like this as well: if every emotion investor that cares about this soap opera and can't hold the shares sells... eventually they'll only become buyers. For scarce things that go up over time this becomes the natural progression. The paper hands do just that. The asset goes up. And they become buyers again, at a higher price. So what's the stock worth? I'll get into this *again*, in another post. I've given some prior probability thinking. The short of it is $10 bucks of EPS in 2 years on 40x discounted by a high Ke of 15% p/a means 10*40 = $400/1.15/1.15 = $302 <--- that's the starting point. Anything less than this IMVHO is buying value. As time marches on, this number goes higher. $250 is "cheap". Closer to $200 is basically... "V's going to make this a 50% position" situation. I don't think we get there, but alas, the money changers are greedy and cause lots of mayhem, so better be prepared and always have outs. Always have outs. Size manage. Have a good week my friends. V(room)speed.

7/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: META Still a buy sub $1k/shr - reality is, why would you bet against zuck - his platforms are hitting on all strides. he is willing to internally build the best AI when he's falling behind by hiring the best talent and it is a LOT cheaper to hire for collectively $500 mm than say pay billions for a developed product and internalize it. great move Zuck! - and their ad tools are second to none and don't suffer as much from "Google search" narrative as the ecosystem is one of those that's incrementally chipping away from Google. - at mid 20s + PE, the stock is not "cheap" but it's actually quite affordable for the environment we're in - some market POV: I think we've seen the "garden variety" pullback already. believe it or not... when you look at the individual names from recent highs, we've seen a lil 3 to 10% shuffle and not all on the same day (take for instance the TSLA dip the other day, large, and not on a day where nasdaq or other Mag7's were red). - i continue to see small caps failing on large cap peers - i see more money still floating lager caps higher at the expense of small caps, even tho it might look the opposite in the immediate term (this is a story as old as time... newbs chase quick thrills, get squashed and can afford less of the assets they should be buying to begin with). so word to the wise: if you've made some nice tendies lately on slightly more degen plays... buying stuff like Mag7's or even indices at highs is not necessarily a "bad" buy. - anyway i like META at sub $1k and sub 35x PE into the print - would like to own more, so would be buying dips - but think this is a winner in 2H Vwith those retail sales #s... amazon prime day... a friend's comments talking about spending (and he has some good ground level insights)... nike reporting "less bad" results etc. etc. and then you have the possible hoarding of spending in mar/apr as market tanks... then rebounds (so people catch back up)... stock ATH... i'd have to think META is going to report great results here and the dip is a good oppty even three-car-monte cvna might have a good quarter lmfao. i think mkt is probably concerned about how fast grok 4/ elon are moving on AI front and how much mark is spending for talent. but realistically... he's spending peanuts vs meta's FCF moat. and their real world data probably rivals google, tsla, msft... only a handful of companies. so that AI will get monetized v v quickly on their several 1B user platforms but all considered, meta looks like good beta here into their results. if we get a miss/ dip... i'll size it up (2-3x) and if it rips... great. V

6/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: GOOGL Catching my eye again... - while i don't typically enjoy having multiple positions on/ and that i incubate, GOOGL is catching my eye again - made the quick scoop on the ridiculous AAPL testimony (see chart) on may 7th for a nice trade but i was back out of it in the days ahead as it recovered the entirety of the drop - but now the more i'm using gemini (and it's the best model on the market) but ALSO understanding how the TPUs the co has been building allow for massively cheaper inference... i'm beginning to wonder, if the market understands this advantage of serving up compute across it's portfolio of products - with fcf yields (in '26) nearly 4%... double digit growth, "no" it's not NVDA , but it's also a bit more de-risked as a platform play - what worries is when i chart GOOGL/QQQ (google on it's nasdaq pair), it's basically been FLAT for the last 15 years. so you've been better off owning nasdaq only (lower risk, same return) - but with that being said, i like the inflection i'm noticing on the application of compute across the company - and for all of you saying "yeah the culture is rotten"... perhaps you're right - i think that's well known (so again where's your edge/ isn't that "in" the price?). consider how the application of compute here may be replacing this cost structure faster than it can erode. a dollar saved is a dollar earned. - and then you have the upside of sundar being fired, he may be a product guy, but the low T and lack of solid communication definitely as a net negative. can't say the same for many of these other co's. so that's a bump if/when that happens. and if doesn't (and it's not necessarily expected)... i think stock does just fine. - i'd be looking to size up if/when we get a bit of a mkt shakeup- garden variety pullback - but for now i'm content to use some ITM leverage for '27 leaps and put this thing as a low single digit position in my PnL V

6/25/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: TSLA Buying all dips going fwd - "successful robotaxi or not successful robotaxi" - elon's clearly won the vision game - scaling hardware (cars, infra, optimus, solar) is m-o-a-t - so is a humanoid and robotaxi robotics company that doesn't burn cash worth a trilly in today's world if the upside is perhaps 5-10 tn in the coming decade (worst case) and your downside here is what? 30... 40... 50%? Is it more? unlikely. - so "yes" we remain entering consumer recessy. yes "tsla" shares r not cheap. and that's for a reason. - buy scarce paper. - buying all dips here. - i like the dec '27 deep ITM leaps. allows me to wrangle size with a bit more flexibility in the coming months. - but this rocketship has yet to make any meaningful moves. - $1,000/shr is the 2Y tgt. Vcar drives itself off the factory line and to a customer somehow nobody extrapolates the implication seems kinda obvious, sizing this up a lil more today. V

6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: COIN If u like CRCL u should like COIN better - hard enough to own a lot of things long - but COIN basically keeps majority of the economics it generates w/ CRCL 's chitstablecoin called USDC - nevermind it's trading at a similar valuation with fin metrics that are literally MULTIPLES larger (3-5x) than CRCL - anyway. - buy CRCL at your own peril. and perhaps the more obvious pair here than even FI would be long COIN and short CRCL (I have put this on FWIW) - the idea would be to use CRCL short profits to either move into cheaper COIN or $obtc. if CRCL continues to run, i'd guess the beta on COIN is now going to catch a wind as well and IV is a whole lot cheaper (on the long side) and the nominal px's for each r roughly similar $300 - gl to all. - stay frosty :) V