TheCoinCowboy

SUI has lost support and has fallen below $3.55, and then failed to regain any ground above it repeatedly. The expectation is that it will hit the March 27 high of $2.82 and then possibly fall further.This trade is still in play...On the 15 minute or 1 hour time frame, you can see a Bearish Pennant forming. I expect another leg down soon.As predicted, the bear pennant brought SUI down another leg to $2.80, and we see a nice bounce up, but the trend is still corrective and I don't think we will see SUI go beyone $3.03 before another leg down to the $2.72 range.I'm gonna say it... I told everyone...My original post on 30 May, was, "The expectation is that it will hit the March 27 high of $2.82 and then possibly fall further.".... and we are now at $2.72.Getting very close. Hit $2.46 today. The Fib retracement from the lowest point in April low to the recent May High, shows that we are now in the "Golden Pocket".Today we hit $2.30 and that was in my predicted range.

Here at the 30 minute time frame, SUI looks to be forming a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. It is possible to have one or two more secondary tests (ST) and then a strong move up beyond the level of the creek (Jump Across the Creek), and if that happens, it will be boom town again. This will be invalidated if the price falls below $3.50.

Shown here on a four hour time frame — what appears to be an almost identical reapat of the recent wave 4 consolodation. Notice the phenominon of what I call, "Double Cupcakes"... — I know... not very technical — but this double bump keeps appearing before a continuation up or reversal of a down trend. So hopefully these cupcakes make your Friday fun. NFA Best WishesFalling below $3.68 invalidaters this theory. And we will likely drop to the range of $3.00 to $3.35Yum yum...my cupcake theory is playing out so far...

We could be in a complex reaccumulation bouncing around between $3.85 and $4.08, as a temporary situtation before a longer elliote wave 5 up to the $4.50 range. Market makers might be testing out both sides of the range to shake out weak hands. Multiple Fakeouts or Upward Thrusts (UT) are happenign with all the over-eager buyers; these false breakouts trap breakout traders. We are seeing Multiple Spring s: where price dips below support to stop folks out before reversing.

Consider the following narative, what currently looks like the completion of wave 5 after hitting $4.27 and now retracing to around $4.00, is actually a short pause or consolidation within a larger wave 5. In Elliott Wave theory, waves occur in fractals, meaning: A smaller 5-wave move (e.g., on a 1H chart) can be part of a larger Wave 3 or 5 on a higher timeframe (e.g., daily). What looks like the “end” of Wave 5 may actually be the end of only a minor subwave within a much larger Wave 5. Shown here is the 12 hour time frame and the Y-axis of the chart is set to logrithmic. There is a cup and handle formation forming, and the current price range of $4.00 to $4.27 is actually the little pause... just like there was a little pause in the middle of wave 3. This means we likely have more runnway to move further up to surpase $5.00. On Monday morning the 12th of May, when the CME opens, and everyone's short on ETH gets liquidated there will be a huge jolt to the market. Also... if certain members of the U.S. political narative get their act together and pass the stable bill reform on Monday, the crypto market will be doing a happy dance. HOWEVER... if we fail to hold $3.90, then the move down will likely be near the $3.50 range that many people are predicting and that will be the handle of a larger cup & handle. If we hold above $3.90 then the bottom of wave 4 was the handle.On the 15 minute time frame, the few "spikes" (shadows) are preventing folks from seeing the ascending triangle that is forming.

$4.10 is proving to be the current level of resistance. I was really hopeful there was more runway up after reaching the $4.00 mark. Note: This analysis is valid only if SUI falls below $4.07. SUI is hitting resistance in the $4.00 to $4.10 range, so we may see some short-term rejection before the next move up to $4.20 and beyond. With all of the good news regarding crypto deregulation in the U.S. and the innovation milestones at SUI, any move down toward $2.40 will likely be very short-lived.Correction: This analysis is only valid if SUI fails to hold above $3.90, and hopefully this idea will not come true.Looks like we are staying above $3.90... and if we do move down it will still print a higher low, so that would be in the $3.60 range. This post does not fit the current bullish momentum the overall market is in.Well, it's very apparent that SUI did not hold above $3.90, and even though I canceled this order, it seems to be playing out for the most part!

Looks like retracement wave 4 has finished around $3.12, and we are now in wave 5. Wave 3 can never be the shortest of waves 1, 3, and 5. But wave 5 is often 0.618 or 1.0 times the length of wave 1 or wave 3. Today, a bullish announcement that U.S. banks can legally custody crypto for clients was made. I think this is the catalyst that will cause wave 5 to be almost as big as wave 3. Also BTC at the time of this writing is 99K+ and nearing the psychological milestone of 100k! The SUI train has left the station!UPDATE: If we fail to stay above $3.80, then wave 5 will not be as big as or close to in size of wave 3, and this means, wave 5 will be short...like wave 1, and the break of structure means there will be a massive pullback. Trade with caution.We hit $4.10 and you can clearly see 5 waves up on a 1 hour chart, with the 5th leg up as the blow-off top...so I believe we most likely will have a small 3 wave retracement to the $3.60 to $3.80 range before attempting the next leg up to $4.20+.So it turned out wave 5 up, was about the same size as wave 1....not bullish enough for the full throttle up to $5.80 for now.This trade is still active, but I can't re-activate this post, so look for my newer one. I think the current pause is simply a small consolodation of a much larger wave 5.

SUI is looking more like it's 4th wave is going to go down a bit more before it can bounce up to $4.00. I really was hopeful that May 5th's $3.26 was it's recent retracement bottom... but it looks like we are about to revisit $3.26 and go even lower. My target range is between $2.80 and $3.08, with my best guess as $2.88 as it will touch a previous high and will settle near the fib golden zone. At the time I am posting this, the price is hovering around $3.24 and BTC is nearing 94k. I think the market overall is going to be very nervious on 6 May, the day before the Fed's 7th May meeting.It is looking like, the bottom was $3.15 as SUI just started jumping over $3.35, and BTC is now over $95K. So this prediction will be invalid if SUI can stay above $3.30.We got down to $3.12 depending on what exchange you are on. And I think that was the bottom of wave 4. So, I was not exact...but pretty close. I bought back in at $3.25So I sold at $3.42, so my jumping back in ended up being a small scalp trade. And with Jerome Powel floudering around saying, "We just don't know... there are too many unknowns...blah blah blah...weait and see..."...the market is not impressed and SUI is now dropping again....Looks like wave 4 is still in play....sorry eveyone... this is a tough one!With regulators in the USA approving banks can custody crypto for customers anounced just hours ago, and SUI surpassing $3.64... I think the wave 4 retracement is now over and we are starting up with wave 5. Its boom-town now! I jumped back inat $3.30.

My previous two "bear flag" ideas were invalidated. This is a Jump the Creek situation. Shown here is a zoom in to the 30 minute time frame of the part that I thought was a bear flag. Bellow is some info in layman's terms of the Wyckoff Reaccuumulation Trading phases also known as "Jump Across the Creek" ----------------------- Please Hit the Rocket if You Like This......------------------ Think of a market like a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Sometimes, after a big uptrend, the market takes a "break" to recharge before heading higher again. This “resting” period is called reaccumulation — it's like a pit stop in a race. Imagine price action moving through a messy sideways area — picture a creek with lots of rocks and water making it hard to cross. In this phase, the market has been struggling to get above a certain price zone (the "creek") — there are little rallies and dips, but no clear breakout. Then, suddenly, the price "jumps across" this resistance zone with a strong move upward — like a bold leap across the creek. This jump typically: ✅ Comes with strong volume (showing conviction from big buyers) ✅ Breaks above the previous highs in the consolidation zone ✅ Signals the beginning of a real uptrend — the reaccumulation is ending, and the next bullish phase is beginning 🧠 Think of it Like This: The market’s been jogging in place, building strength. “The creek” = a resistance zone keeping price trapped. “Jump Across the Creek” = price finally gathering strength to leap out of the mud and start sprinting again. 📈 Traders Look for: A breakout with higher volume Pullbacks that don’t break down — these often retest the “creek” area before moving higherThis Jump The creek scenario is playing out nicely. Hit the Rocket Please if you like this post!

Many times I have seen a failed H&S pattern play out days later. It appears that a bear flag is forming and that the failed plunge will take place soon. Shown here is the 4 hour chart, showing a recent double top. If the price of AVAX holds above $19.20 than this theory will be invalid.This analysis is invalid. What we likely have here is more of a "Wyckoff Reaccumlation Trading Range... or a "Jump Across the Creek" situation. At the time of writing this update, we have jumped accross the creek and have tested the "Last Point of Support" or LPS...and are now entering a Sign of Strength or SOS at $19.50+.