Shepherd_Investor

OverviewBitcoin is the best litmus test for the crypto market. Whenever I can't get a read on a particular token, I refer back to Bitcoin. After reviewing the chart I believe Bitcoin is on route to $100K. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if it rockets pass this price and hits the next key Fibonacci level around $150K but that is months down the line. For now I'd like to stick with a March '24 prediction.Trading PatternsBitcoin appears to be setting up for an Inverse Head & Shoulders or a Cup & Handle pattern. While both are bullish signals it does imply there will be a temporary dip in the price before further buying volume ensues and takes it to new highs.Scenario 1 (Inverse H&S)An Inverse H&S could result in a correction back to $35K-42K if it comes to fruition.Scenario 2 (Cup & Handle)A Cup & Handle could result in a correction to the same range with a more likely price target near 42K.Supporting TheoryYou may be wondering what the white vertical line is in both of the trading pattern scenarios. It marks the next FOMC meeting which occurs on 19-20 March 2024. I believe a significant correction is going to occur within the equity market following this meeting and while its timing in relation to the development of these trading patterns could be coincidental, I believe it supports the idea that the crypto market may also experience a drawback.Now I think it goes without saying that I don't believe these corrections will be a market reversal back into a crypto winter. I just believe the FOMC is going to finally make changes regarding the Fed Rates and that, when it does, regardless of whether they are increased or decreased the large investors are going to withdraw for two reasons:1) Realize profits2) To get a feel for the direction of the market moving forwardOnce the second condition has taken place then I believe both the equity and crypto markets will continue their rallies as the "whales" reinsert their liquidity.March Price PredictionEverything aside, I believe Bitcoin will continue to grow for the next week or two. While there is not much room left before the prior trading patterns would need to see a correction, I believe that Bitcoin could reach 69K before the next FOMC meeting.

OverviewPepe is one of those speculative assets that I treat like a first date. I go in with the hopes that it could be an absolute winner but my expectations are that it will be a bust. Because of this I couldn't invest too heavily in the up and coming meme coin but I could invest just enough that if I lost it, I wouldn't be bothered. But if it becomes a winner then my insignificant investment just became a significant gain. Let's crunch price targets. There's not many technical indicators that I feel are reliable enough to go off of so I am solely using Fibonacci retracement levels and theoretical market caps. As the anticipated crypto bull run begins to warm up, it's a good practice to begin setting price targets so that when the market cools again all of those gains don't get flushed down the drain. With any bull run, especially in the crypto market, it's not a matter of IF but WHEN the rally will end.At a token price of $0.000011375 the market cap would be a measly $4.7B which is practically nothing to an established cryptocurrency. This price level reflects the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Further climbs would need to be supported by significant volume but let's continue forward as if those requirements have been met.At a market cap of $25B, the Pepe token value would be $0.000059 which is a whopping 1,375% gain. In crypto, this isn't unheard of. While I'd like to keep running numbers with growing market caps, I don't want to feed into FOMO which is extremely present during rallies so I will leave the cap at a $25B ceiling. This means that a theoretical investment of $100 at today's value ($0.0000040) would be worth $1,475 if Pepe can maintain its steam to the $25B market cap. As I said before, I treat Pepe like a first date. I don't invest too much into it but just enough that I maintain the opportunity of being pleasantly surprised.

OverviewIn the last couple months my attitude towards crypto has gone from swing trading it to just holding it, especially with the much anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaching next month. In the past, strong crypto bull rallies occurred within the months following the halving events which leads me to believe that our favorite cryptocurrencies could be hitting record highs by the end of 2024. Shiba Inu Price TargetIf the bull market continues then a price target near 0.00014559 appears to be a healthy time to take profits. I found this price level through the use of Fibonacci retracement levels. However, Shiba Inu has been around longer than the attached TradingView chart suggests so the correct Fibonacci levels may vary. To make up for the lack of historical price data, I put the bottom Fibonacci level as close to zero as possible.There are several key areas of resistance that Shiba will need to push through before a price target near 0.00015 can be considered practical. I believe that if the token's value can exceed its 61.8% Fib Level at 0.00005570 with growing volume then the target may only be a few months away. At the 0.00015 price level the market cap for Shiba Inu will be around $82.5 billion so as this price level is approached it would be wise to reassess market sentiments so as to avoid pulling out too soon.It is my opinion that a $250 billion dollar market cap is not unreasonable for a successful token, but it is a bit of a stretch and holding too long could result in losing unrealized profits if the market cools. At the $250 billion market cap, Shiba Inu's price would be around $0.00045.Technical IndicatorsVolume on the 1D chart supports bullish momentum as the breakout is occurring alongside significant, increasing volume and the On-Balance Volume indicator reveals that buying pressure has surpassed prior highs.

OverviewI recently cancelled one of my other ApeCoin projections where I believed a Three Hills & a Mountain pattern was forming. The second hill became a head and now a bearish Head & Shoulders is in progress. However, I am still bullish on the token because if the H&S is valid and the price is rejected back to $1.00 then this could become a setup for a medium-to-long term double bottom formation.Head & ShouldersThe H&S can be seen on both the hourly and daily charts. The right shoulder is currently in development with a descending wedge that may squeeze the value back up to a resistance around $1.55. Should the ceiling be strong enough to extinguish any momentum that APEUSD may garner then a correction back to $1.00 is probable.However, if support is significant enough at this $1.00 level then this will become the second leg for the double bottom pattern.Double Bottom ProjectionThere will be plenty of noise in-between that will facilitate short-term trades but I believe a price target near $6 is practical. This is near the same price target of a macro-Cup & Handle projection that I published a few weeks ago.

SpeculationsI believe Bitcoin is coming due for a "steep" correction but not in an unload your wallets and get out of the game kind of way. It has rallied hard over the last few months and despite experiencing significant increases in value, Bitcoin's volume has slowly dwindled. It is for those reasons and -- more in the following paragraph -- that I believe Bitcoin will most likely see a drop to around $35K.Trend AnalysisOn the 1D and hourly charts, I have drawn out a symmetrical triangle (yellow) that envelops the $35K support which rests around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I utilized Fib retracements in both the up and downtrends to find what I believe will be a reasonable bottom; the downtrend Fib levels place 61.8% too low in my opinion.Bitcoin's current value is consolidating within a smaller symmetrical pennant (white) and appears to be on the verge of breaking down. Using the volume indicators and Fibonacci levels to support my theory, I believe that selling pressure will increase as we approach the Bitcoin ETF decision. I think that many traders will exit their positions out of fear of an ETF rejection which will cause a cascade to the 61.8% Fib level.Speculative ProjectionsBecause of the crypto market's overall bullish sentiments, I feel comfortable projecting a double bottom pattern that may develop within the symmetrical triangle. However, once an ETF decision has been made I don't believe the current patterns will remain valid. I am expecting that there will be a premature breakout or breakdown at this time.Bitcoin has broken out of the symmetrical pennant and triangle that is shown on my original idea but I still believe a correction is coming. I can't stress it enough that I am bullish on Bitcoin in the long-term so this is not coming from a place of bias.The volume is still decreasing while Bitcoin's price rises. This is what leads me to believe Bitcoin will experience a sharp correction.- Double top formation on the hourly charts- Volume within pennant has decreased suggesting a false breakout- Potential correction back to $35K is still probable

FindingsI believe I have discovered a Three Hills & a Mountain pattern on the SHIB hourly and daily charts. I recently posted about the same formation on ApeCoin which gives me the impression that certain altcoins are experiencing similar trading activities while Bitcoin consolidates. Bitcoin appears to be on the brink of a correction which could bring us to the 61.8% Fibonacci level where significant buying pressure should occur and begin developing the third hill. APEUSD Three Hills & a Mountain Publicationhttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/APEUSD/2N72pW5c-ApeCoin-3-Hills-a-Mountain/Trend AnalysisBoth of the proposed hills are of unequal magnitude which is why I do not believe this is a Three Drives pattern. While there was a brief decline beneath the 61.8% level before forming the second hill, the drop was insignificant and stayed in close proximity. On the 1W chart there is a Double Bottom "W" pattern forming which I have detailed in an earlier publication a few weeks ago; the Three Hills and a Mountain supports the W projection as the price target is around 0.000016.W Pattern PublicationThe volume is rising with increasing values and the succeeding hill has increasing volume as well, indicating bullish momentum. Should the pattern keep up I believe we will see a large spike in volume within the first half of the third hill. SHIBUSD https://www.tradingview.com/x/YXnNSq3g/The second hill has finally completed.The value of SHIB has declined further than I originally anticipated, however, I am not too concerned. After reviewing the 1D chart I believe the token is still on track for a Three Hills and a Mountain pattern. The supporting indicators are as follows:- Dwindling volume with decreasing value (suggests the current trend is temporary)- Money Flow Index (MFI) is approaching oversold territory

I believe I've identified a potential Three Hills & a Mountain pattern on ApeCoin's hourly and daily charts. At the time of this idea --- and should my projection be correct -- we are beginning the transition to the third hill. The supporting evidence for my idea is the following:1) Both of the completed hills declined to, or near, their 61.8% Fibonacci levels as is consistent with the Three Hills & a Mountain pattern. 2) While they appear similar, both completed hills are of different magnitudes which separates itself from the Three Drives pattern. I made a crude projection for the third hill and price target by using downtrend Fibonacci levels (in red) to identify a 61.8% level between the first and second hill. The purpose of this level is to identify a potentially strong support that would ultimately lead to the rally of the Mountain. It is my understanding that the Mountain rallies at a magnitude equal to the lowest and highest value of the Three Hills which in this case would be $1.292 (indicated in white). Assuming this is correct, a rally of this proportion would bring us to a target price around $2.770. APEUSD https://www.tradingview.com/x/BizkGUwV/The second hill has finally completed.The value of APE has declined further than I expected and is potentially setting up for a head and shoulders pattern. After reviewing the 1D chart I believe the token's current decline won't last much longer, however, I will be remaining cognizant of significant resistance around the $1.50 range as this could confirm a H&S.Key indicators:- Dwindling volume with decreasing value (suggests the current trend is temporary)- Money Flow Index (MFI) is approaching oversold territory- Recovery to the $1.70 range could confirm that APE is back on track for the 3 Hills & a MountainI no longer believe that APE is following a Three Hills & a Mountain pattern. The second hill's support failed and it appears that a Head & Shoulders pattern is forming. Fortunately I believe this is just one step back to take two steps forward. On a macro-level, a valid H&S would facilitate the development of a double bottom which is very bullish.Should APE meet significant resistance around the $1.55 level over the next week or two, a breakdown back to $1.00 is probable. I will be watching for significant support at this level.

APEUSD ApeCoin has caught my attention recently. Mostly because it's flashing bullish signals with a foreseeable 10X -- if not higher -- upside. So let's check off the speculative prediction before I dive into my 1W chart analysis.With a max token supply of 1 billion tokens and a market cap of only $585M USD at the time of this idea, it's my opinion that ApeCoin could see some serious gains in the anticipated bull market. At only 1B tokens, if ApeCoin secures a market cap of $5 billion USD then its single token price would be a whopping $5.00 -- a 217% gain from the APE's current value ($1.58). While $5 billion is nothing to shrug your shoulders at, that is a relatively small market cap in crypto. I won't even compare this to Bitcoin or Ethereum since they are blockchains and on a whole different tier, but in comparison to other tokens such as Shiba Inu ($4.84B) or Doge ($11.5B), APE has a lot of room to grow.Typically tokens with this type of potential are new and extremely risky, and while there is always an inherent risk when investing in crypto, ApeCoin already has a solid reputation due to its celebrity-backed NFT collection, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC). Okay, now for the 1W chart analysis:As of late October '23, the volume has began to increase with a rising token value that's nearly doubled since its low of $0.98. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows a positive slope which suggests an increase in buying pressure with a Money Flow Index (MFI) that is resting in neutral territory. I've drawn out a projected Cup & Handle pattern with a cup profit target near $6.43 and a handle purchase target around $3.72. Should this pattern continue and become a valid Cup & Handle, I believe a breakout target of $9.17 is both likely and reasonable since the depth of the cup has a price range of $5.45. I did not annotate it on the chart but if the Cup & Handle completes then it will also form an Inverse Head & Shoulders (the head = cup and the right shoulder = handle).I think it goes without saying that there will be plenty of short-term trading opportunities during this pattern formation and, while I am optimistic on an approaching crypto bull market, there is always the chance of market sentiments turning south. Regardless, APE has most certainly caught my attention as a bright short-term and long-term investment opportunity.

First off, what the f*ck?I believe Bitcoin should correct back to at least the 50% Fib Level -- if not the 38.2% -- so that we can see a healthy rally upwards. Years of trading crypto has taught me that every rally has a near equal correction. But emotions and bias will be the death of your portfolio so here's my unbiased analysis of the world's greatest cryptocurrency:- Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle on multiple charts which is a bullish sentiment on its own.- On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a steady increase in buying pressure since the start of the recent rally. Layman's terms: buying pressure is outcompeting selling pressure.- Money Flow Index (MFI) has an inverse slope that favors oversold and is currently relaxing in neutral territory safely away from overbought.These three indicators lead me to believe that Bitcoin may experience another breakout in the coming weeks and, potentially, without a dip back to $30.5K as I previously forecasted. At risk of stating the obvious, news can shake the markets enough to reverse any trajectory but yesterday's Binance update hardly rattled Bitcoin like it did for altcoins. It's my personal opinion that the Bitcoin ETF decision is the closest catalyst in determining the next major rally or drop. However, we can't forget about the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving which is expected around April 2024. If the ETF does get rejected, this may provide a very lucrative buying opportunity.https://www.tradingview.com/x/vddpu3Tj/ BTCUSD

On the journey to a complete W pattern at the $0.000015 price tag there will be a few, if not more, periods of consolidation. After a hot run up to the 0.00000970 range, Shiba Inu is beginning to consolidate into what may be a week long, or slightly longer, pennant formation. Buying opportunities may present themselves around the Fib Retracement Levels with a potential bottom near the 38.2% level.A breakout from the projected pennant could take Shib's value to the 1W (1 week) 38.2% Fib Retracement Level with the 1W 50% level being the next stop if this ceiling is blown through with significant volume. However, more consolidation should be expected in my opinion. As always, a breakdown is also possible which could hemorrhage Shib's value to prior lows.At the time of this article I am still confident on a pending completion of the W pattern (see my other idea linked at the bottom) but macroeconomic factors can accelerate or derail this formation. Stop-losses should be utilized and traders should be cognizant of any significant changes in the climate of the market. SHIBUSDI believe we will see the formation of a M pattern with the second peak around or above the 78.6% Fib retracement level. Shortly after, I expect that a drop will occur that takes us to one of two projected support lines for another buying opportunity.Bitcoin is forming an inverse cup-and-handle on the hourly charts and so I believe a correction as low as the $30.5K range is coming. Because of its correlation to altcoins, I no longer feel that this pennant will be able to contain the selling pressure.However, in my opinion, this is just a short-term problem and I think SHIB is still on-course to complete its W pattern on the 1W chart. Stay vigilant.