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Bitcoin is currently trading green for the week, where it currently sits at US$96,700. The Bollinger bands are continuing to compress, indicating that the price range of which Bitcoin is trading is narrowing. Should we get a kick in volatility in the coming days, below are some potential outcomes. Sentiment in crypto markets have taken a hit in recent weeks, with the fear and greed index currently indicating market sentiment as fearful. Global exchange data from Coinglass suggests that if Bitcoin surges to US$100,000, up to $5 billion in short leveraged positions could be liquidated, triggering a potential short squeeze as traders rush to cover their positions. Bitcoin volatility has also dropped to its lowest point since August 2024. Bullish ScenarioPrice may head towards $102k which is the February monthly open; this could be fuelled by a short squeeze – based on what we know from the exchange data referenced earlier. Bearish ScenarioPrice failing to remain above the yearly open of circa $93k could result in a move back towards the January low of $89k.

14th of February 2025•XRP and BNB leading, as Bitcoin trades flat in the last seven days.•Headline inflation metrics in the US land above expectations. •Impactful data point to watch heading into the end of February. ---A big week of headlines and events, particularly out of the US, have netted very little change in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin is down 0.1% at the time of writing in the last seven-days, while altcoins such as XRP and BNB are showing double-digit gains. Bitcoin has struggled to make new year-to-date highs in the current state of global conditions. In contrast, global indices in the UK (FTSE100) and China (CSI300) have continued to make new year-to-date highsMixed Messages & Above Expected ResultsFed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week at a senate banking enquiry that the current state of monetary policy does not require easing conditions, as the economy remains strong and the 2% target for inflation is key.However, he has referenced that unexpected moves in the labour market or a significant cooling of inflation could change the committee’s mind. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.”On this point, headline metrics for inflation land above expectations this week. On Tuesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed above expectations at 3.0%, rising 0.1% from the previous month. Overnight the Producers Price Index (PPI) landed above expectations at 3.5% year-on-year. This figure remains unchanged from the previous month and represents the inflation burden on producers in the US. Key data to comeOn the last day of February the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will provide further clarity towards the state of monetary policy heading into next month. PCE is the leading indicator used by the policy committee to measure inflation. Fear and greed currently reads 40 – neutral.Bitcoin AnalysisThe price of Bitcoin is currently trading within the January high and low range, and on the Bollinger band we are entering a period where the upper and bottom channel is compressing. Bullish ScenarioIn the coming days, price may see a sharp move higher as the Bollinger Bands tighten. If bulls regain control and reclaim the monthly open, they could push toward last month’s high.Bearish ScenarioWe could also with this compression in the Bollinger Bands, see volatility moving price to the downside. This may result in prices heading towards the January low. DISCLAIMER: The information is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product.

We've just sealed the deal with a new higher high on the weekly time frame. This is a big deal in my eyes. From here I would like to see the market re-accumulate into October to set up a trending environment for the rest of the year. Areas I like are shaded in green. It all really depends how hungry the market is for BTC once we get to each level as to which one will hold and push. $61K is first up. Time to tune in.

The markets have rallied impressively this week, with Bitcoin surpassing $60,000 USD early this week and altcoins following. The total crypto market cap has increased by 11% in the last seven days to to $2.32 trillion USD. Ethereum has gained 5.3% this week amid growing speculation that US Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are nearing a launch date, with some analysts predicting July 23rd. US Economic Data ImprovingUS Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington, answering various questions from the audience. Below is one of the responses he gave when questioned about the current state of inflation:“We didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence,” Powell said Monday.The Fed has consistently maintained that rate cuts can only occur once the committee is confident that inflation is headed back towards its 2% target. Has the pendulum now started to turn?---Bitcoin AnalysisBitcoin has successfully moved below and reclaimed the May Low in the early periods of this month, where it currently trades above the monthly open of $62,772 USD. We are also at the midpoint range of this now 127-day consolidation period. Below are two potential outcomes now that we are at the midpoint of this range. Bullish ScenarioBulls continue to defend any lows, holding above the monthly open. This could result in a further advance above the current range midpoint. Bearish ScenarioFailure to hold prices above the monthly open could see a decline closer to the May low region, where prices began to rally.

Since our last update, Bitcoin has moved under the most recent range of lows where it currently trades. We are now at a point where we wait to see who’s in charge, will it be the bulls or bears?Bullish ScenarioHaving now moved outside the current range, seeing buyers step in to bring the price back above $66,000 USD would reclaim this range. Bearish ScenarioIf Bitcoin does not move higher and reclaim this current range low, it could move further towards the March lows.

Using Fibonacci extensions, if we are currently accumulating at these lows, we could see the following bullish and bearish moves. Bullish scenario A move above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio ($3.067) would again create a structurally higher high and potentially set up moves to the higher key levels.Bearish scenarioFailure to break about this current high or break about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio (red lines) could result in a move back towards the lows.

Bullish scenario A push back above the 0.618 Fibonacci ($174.20) would be a good sign for the bulls. This would also create a new higher high. From there, we could then see market participants target previous highs of $210.18, and then the Fibonacci extension levels of $235.80 and $268.38. Bearish scenarioFailure to garner any attention from the market, could result in a move back towards the current lows of $116.00.

While there have been lots of wins on the fundamentals and adoption of Bitcoin globally increasing. There is still more to be desired from a technical perspective in my opinion. This chart might look busy, but the outlook from here is quite simple for me. Let me break it down. Why I think its weak Price has on the 21st of May (Orange circle) failed to remain above resistance from the previous highs. We have also failed to make any new higher highs since this rejection. The Big Picture is still Bullish We are also current trading in a range within the overall March range structure, that has yet to take out the high or low. As my current thesis is the Bitcoin will trade higher in the coming months, It's reasonable to think that we go lower before the next leg higher. I think there also some pragmatic selling happening ahead of the FOMC and CPI data that will release in the coming weeks. Lower then Send It Higher So in summary, $64,000 -> towards the fair value gap (green box) as the next likely move. And then I would like to see accumulation in that zone for the next move into new all time highs. Invalidation of this idea, would be to close back above $72,000.

Techically speaking, BONK is one of the most bullish charts I am looking at, again just my persepctive. We are close to all time highs, and memecoins continue to be leading the market when Bitcoin recovers. We’ve see PEPE be a big winner this week as well. Below are some thoughts on BONK using Fibonacci analysis. Bullish scenario BONK needs to get above the 0.618 ‘golden-ratio’ fib for this technical setup to be valid to begin with. From there the next targets is the previous high, the 1.212 fib and the 1.618 fib. From current prices, the upper target is an ~100% move. Bearish scenario A breakdown from here and making a new local low would be a bearish move, that could take some time to recover in my opinion.

Crypto markets have so far shown resilience after what has been an eventful week to-date. On the 1st of May we witnessed Bitcoin trade below both the March and April lows, where we then saw four consecutive days of buying resulting in a 14% rally back to $64,500 USD. 👉The next few days will be key in understanding if the bulls will continue to show up, we provide some bullish and bearish scenarios to start the week below. There is little on the economic calendar this week, however we did see a very interesting print at the end of last week for the US labour market. Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 71. US Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher Last week, the US unemployment rate slightly missed expectations, coming in at 3.9% instead of the anticipated 3.8%. It's important to understand why this matters. An increase in unemployment could hint at a broader economic slowdown. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve has previously mentioned that a weakening labour market might precipitate a change to interest rates and an overall easing of conditions from the current regime. Bullish Scenario Early this week, should the bulls hold their ground at the current ranges, we could see a push to the range midpoint of $66,000 USD. Bearish Scenario Failure to see the bulls hold the market here could then see prices retesting the bottom of this channel, which was reclaimed at the start of this month. This may result in Bitcoin moving back towards $61,000 USD.