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Bitcoin, Gold, S&P 500 and InflationThis is a 3 year view (2022 - 2025 to date), 1 week comparison chart of Bitcoin, Gold, S&P 500 and US cumulative rate of inflation. The most interesting part of this analysis to me is that the S&P 500 bounced off the cumulative rate of inflation slope. I did not know that until after I set up the comparison.Gold = +80%BTCUSD = +50%S&P 500 = +19%US cumulative rate of inflation:2022 = +6.5%2023 = +3.4%2024 = +2.9%3 yr = +10.8%2025 = +2.4% forecast

Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart, 5 year view, with price and time notes. Bitcoin is poised to make new all time highs around 130k by August 18th 2025. It may not seem that way today, when all global markets are drastically down because of Tariff news. But here's the bull case:1) Uptrend channel: Bitcoin is trading at support in it's several years uptrend channel.2) Last halving cycle 5/11/20 it took 336 days to hit it's first peak.3) Last halving cycle 5/11/20 it took 546 days to hit it's second peak.4) Last halving cycle 5/11/20 it took 98 days to drop and reverse bullish. And that was because China banned crypto.5) This halving cycle 4/20/24 it took 280 days to hit it's first peak.6) This halving cycle 4/20/24 Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for 77 days so far. And that is because China Deep Seek AI news, followed by Tariff news.7) Last halving cycle 5/11/20 it took 210 days from the first to second peak. This halving cycle 4/20/24 210 days from the first peak to the possible second peak would land on 8/18/25.8) Bitcoin 2021 high of $69k is a major support level that closely aligns with it's current uptrend channel support.Took profit at $93,500, will wait for a pullback to 89K to get back in.Had to get back in the long before Bitcoin breaks +$100kIf you want to take partial profit in the +$100k area and use Michael Sailor as your exit liquidity nows your chance.Bitcoin is now at major resistance. Time to take profit in the red zone.

XRP went on a parabolic bull run in November 2024. Since December 2024 it traded in an uptrend channel with a peak on January 15th - 16th 2025. Followed by a drop on February 2nd & 3rd. Since then, XRP is trying to get back in to it's uptrend channel. Right now, it's trading slightly bullish, just above neutral 50 on the stochastic indicator with a break above it's .5 YTD fib retracement level. If there's a rejection at it's previous uptrend channel of 2.85 that's bearish and could hit SMA100 again. If there's a breakout above it's previous uptrend channel of 2.85 that's bullish and could hit the top of it's previous uptrend channel.XRP levels:SMA100 = 2.21SMA200 = 1.386 month low = .386 month high = 3.406 month fib retracement .5 = 1.89YTD low = 1.73YTD high = 3.40YTD fib retracement .5 = 2.56December - February uptrend channelhigh = 3.85low = 2.85

Every investor and trader has at sometime wished they had a crystal ball. You can do your own due diligence, taking the time to do technical and fundamental analysis weighing market sentiment and still not be 100% correct every single time. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. So with that said, if you look back at Bitcoin's price discovery history, you can see the general and specific trades you "should" have made. However, how do we extrapolate this data into future trades we "should" make?For me, It's all based on probability and risk management. I look for high probability and low risk trades. Most of the time a trade is not ready for that perfect timing to trade. It takes planning and patience to setup a great entry and exit. The old adage, “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” That's why investors simply hold on with a long term bullish trend. But, what if you had a crystal ball? Then obviously you would time selling the major tops and buying major lows.Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks without wicks, to take out the visual noise. In the past 7 years, I have identified only 7 major long trades and 6 major short trades. Why is this important? It means that the last best time to go long was the week of 9/9/24. And it also means the next trade is a short trade. This does not mean the timing is to short Bitcoin today. It just means that if you had a crystal ball you would know when to exit your long position. For now Bitcoin is still a long to hold on to.BTC/USD crystal ball trades:#7long = $54,566 w/o 9/9/24short = ? w/o ?profit = ?time = ?#6long = $24,900 w/o 9/11/23short = $72,777 w/o 4/8/24profit = $47,877 = 2.92xtime = 7 months#5long = $16,543 w/o 1/2/23short = $31,050 w/o 4/10/23profit = $14,507 = 1.88xtime = 3 months#4long = $29,302 w/o 7/19/21short = $69,000 w/o 10/8/21profit = $39,698 = 2.35xtime = 3 months#3long = $5853 w/o 3/30/20short = $64,899 w/o 4/12/21profit = $59,046 = 11.09xtime = 14 months#2long = $3341 w/o 2/4/19short = $12,320 w/o 8/5/19profit = $8979 = 3.69xtime = 7 months#1long = $1758 w/o 7/10/17short = $16,275 w/o 1/8/18profit = $14,517 = 9.26xtime = 6 months

There was a Solana meme coin frenzy this past weekend after Trump made his own, followed by Melania making hers. SOL/USD hit an all time high of 295. TRUMP coin low to high was 76 cents to 77 dollars and MELANIA high to low was 15.50 to 3.28. Before this weekend the most well known Solana tokens were BONK & WIF. Since TRUMP & MELANIA are so new, I'm publishing my analysis on the 15 minute chart with the Fib Retracement tool to visualize probable ranges and possible price action levels.Solana meme coins can be created by anyone who has Solana in their crypto wallet. The main sites that have a simplified user interface to mint your own Solana token are pump.fun, DEX Screener moonshot and smithii. The most used Solana wallets for Solana meme coins are Phantom, Solflaire and Jupiter. The major exchanges for crypto meme trading are Photon, Bullx and Cryptocom. Photon and Bullx actually use TradingView charts plugin which is the best in my opinion.The official CA:TRUMP: 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPNMELANIA: FUAfBo2jgks6gB4Z4LfZkqSZgzNucisEHqnNebaRxM1P

Bitcoin Cash golden cross is a buy signal before January 20th. When a 100-day moving average crosses above a 200-day moving average, it's commonly referred to as a "golden cross". Indicating a potential bullish signal, suggesting a possible shift from a bearish trend to a bullish trend in the market. In 2023 BCH went from a low on January 20th to a high of + 214%. In 2024 BCH went from a low on January 20th to a high of + 207%. Is the 3rd time a charm? If BCH can go +200% from January 20th 2025 the high would be around 1300 per Bitcoin Cash!Trade idea:Long = sma100stop = sma200profit = 1300BCH/BTC is back to it's 3 year low. Time to go long Bitcoin Cash.

Here's a YTD bitcoin comparison with the top market cap cryptos. With the tickerTracker MFI Oscillator on the 6hr chart.BTC = 6%ETH = 0%XRP = 55%SOL = 12%DOGE = 20%ADA = 27%AVAX = 12%XLM = 45%LINK = 14%SUI = 13%HBAR = 32%

Solana is at a major support level. SOL/USD tapped it's EMA200 at $175 yesterday. Also, it's currently trading near it's S3 level on the TTCATR indicator set to EMA20 with ATR3. Plus, it's RSI is at 31 oversold. And lastly the $180 zone has acted as a resistance area in March, May and July, so now it has flipped that to a support area.Trade idea:Long = 180Stop = 170Profit = 260I had a cool idea💡. Drop the CA of a new Solana token that you're watching. I'll start in the comment section.Good day to start dca buying Solana today in the 180'sSolana at 183 this afternoon.I sold at 244 and read newsworthy current events for Solana. I bought back in at 244.250 stop held overnight, but 290 take profit executed overnight.Solana is consolidating in an imperfectly formed bull pennant / bull flag. It is crypto so you can't expect a perfectly formed pattern. If there's a breakout then I can see SOL/USD hitting +400. If this quazi bull pattern is broken, then a long Solana trade is invalidated.Solana bullflag pattern thesis still intact.Crypto is rolling over. Stop loss levels are key.

Michael Sailor is the dumbest trader I've ever seen on a massive scale. MicroStrategy started buying Bitcoin on August 11th 2020. Since then Michael Sailor held Bitcoin for a loss and bought Bitcoin at all time highs. He never sold Bitcoin to take profit, never had a stop loss and leveraged his Bitcoin dca accumulation by issuing debt with a check he ultimately can't cash. In the future this will prove to be a catastrophic example of how not to trade or invest. Everyone will be saying in hindsight they could have predicted such a collapse. Everyone who has traded Bitcoin the past 10 years knows it is a speculative risk asset. You buy the drop and sell the top. Eventually, this ponzi scheme greater fool theory implodes under it's own weight and gravity prevails.BTC Future trajectory:Sell Resistance = 100kHold Average = 63kBuy Support = 23kClose MSTR short position at 339 while BTC was down at 93k. I think they'll be a bounce up tomorrow.In an SEC filing today, MicroStrategy acquired an additional 1,070 BTC last week for approximately 101 million at an average price of 94,004 per Bitcoin. Now, MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings is 447,470 BTC, purchased at a cost of 27.97 billion, including fees and expenses. MSTR’s average price per Bitcoin is 62,503 now. With BTC trading at 102k, the value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings is 45.6 B. Even though MSTR stock is trading at 88 B. Which represents a 2 times premium valuation of MSTR book value. Theoretically, a MSTR investor pays twice as much per Bitcoin or 200k per BTC today. No wonder why Michael Saylor is diluting MSTR shares hand over fist. However, it's not liquid, because he cannot sell BTC for profit. MSTR fair value would be 180 per share today. I know it trades on momentum, but just explaining the fundamentals.

On average, Bitcoin price action time cycles are synchronized in 16 month time frames. Bitcoin halving time cycles are every 4 years. The last 3 halving cycle highs occurred 12 - 16 months afterwards. The greater fool theory is a speculative investing strategy that suggests that investors can profit by buying overvalued assets and selling them to someone else at an even higher price. When the market bubble eventually bursts, investors who bought assets based on the greater fool theory can lose a lot of money.Black swan events can have catastrophic consequences, such as affecting the entire global economy. A black swan event is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but in hindsight appears to have been inevitable. One sign of an impending Black swan event is market participants engaging in over leveraged debt margin trading.What does this all mean? My speculation is that you want to sell Bitcoin now before Black Friday, November 29th 2024 and then buy back before Christmas, December 25th and hold until July 2025 peak. The risk of buying crypto without taking a portion of profits during these high to low cycles is being someone else's exit liquidity and not having the dry powder to buy lower when it drops.