BenRoses

Tesla just popped up on my turnaround screen. A deeper look at TSLA’s recent daily candles, reveals that the bodies are getting smaller compared to the big surges we saw earlier in the year. That’s classic “energy compression,” not a big reversal pattern like a bearish engulfing or evening star, but more of a tight pause near the upper range. We’ve basically gone from wide, high-momentum candles in April–June to a sideways drift with low volatility, which is exactly the kind of setup that tends to precede an impulsive move. Trend-wise, TSLA had a monster parabolic run into Dec 2024, then took a serious hit from Feb to Apr 2025. Now sentiment’s shifting — it’s less about fearing more downside and more about not wanting to miss the next leg up. You can see it in how dips toward $280–$300 keep getting bought. Momentum indicators agree: MACD is flat and hugging zero (neutral but primed), RSI is sitting at 57, not overbought, so there’s still gas in the tank for another rally before hitting exhaustion. Structurally, TSLA’s stuck between two Darvas boxes. The lower one is $280–$340, the upper is $370–$480. Right now we’re pressing against that $340 ceiling, a true decision zone. Break it with strong volume and you’re looking at $354, $372.5, maybe even $391. Fail here, and it’s back toward $300–$280. Fibonacci retracements from the $465 high to the $280 low line up nicely with this view. $322 is the 23.6% level, $354 is the 38.2%, $372.5 is 50%, $391 is 61.8%, and $422 is 78.6%. We’re currently just above that $322 mark, fighting for $354 — reclaiming it would be a pretty bullish milestone. Bottom line, TSLA looks like it’s coiling for a breakout. The $340–$354 range is the trigger zone. Watch for a volume surge and a daily close over $354 to confirm we’re moving into the next box. If that doesn’t happen and we slip under $300, expect a retest of $280.

Let’s reassess TSLA now that we have this new candle (a big move +4.73%) in context. This changes things substantially, so I’ll reapply candlestick techniques, assess trend health, box positioning, and momentum. Candlestick Analysis The new candle: Large white body (+4.7%) closing at $309.87. Engulfing prior 2 candles’ real bodies → this is a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Occurs near the 50% retracement ($290) zone (previous support). Volume expanded vs prior days → adds validity. Bullish engulfing after a down leg is an early reversal signal. Context: This happens after weeks of indecision candles (spinning tops / dojis) → classic “coiling” behavior before expansion. Trend Health & Momentum MACD: Still below zero but histogram bars turning less negative → momentum starting to shift. RSI: Up to ~47.6, breaking out of its down channel. A move >50 would confirm momentum pivot. Box Dynamics TSLA just punched through the upper edge of Box 2 ($300) with conviction. Now entering “no man’s land” between Box 2 ($300–$360) and Box 1 ($360–$465). For a sustained breakout it must close above $306–310 range for 2-3 days. Ideally see follow-through with a test of $328 (78.6% Fib). Tactical Breakdown ✅ Breakout case (higher probability now): Bullish Engulfing + volume expansion at support zone. Closing above $306-310 increases odds of a run toward $328 (78.6%) and possibly $360. ❌ Reversal back down (lower probability): Only if TSLA immediately rejects $310 and falls back below $300 in the next 1–2 sessions. This price action looks like accumulation showing its hand. Large white candle suggests buyers absorbing supply at prior resistance. Breakout above $306 confirmed if follow-through continues. Odds for a reversal lower just dropped sharply after today’s engulfing.

If HOOD holds above $70, momentum can carry it to $84–85 in the short term, and as high as $95 if the rally becomes euphoric — but any breakdown below $70 likely resets the move. 1. Price Action – Clean Breakout Price surged above a major resistance level around $65.39, which had previously capped price in late March. The breakout candle is strong, impulsive, and supported by volume, suggesting institutional follow-through. 2. RSI – Overbought Territory RSI is 78.06, a red flag for short-term exhaustion. While strong trends can keep RSI over 70 for extended periods, moves like this often lead to: Sideways digestion Quick shakeouts Potential for bearish divergence if price pushes higher but RSI rolls over 3. MACD – Elevated and Peaking MACD lines are still bullishly stacked, but the histogram is flattening. We may be nearing a momentum apex — any softness in price could trigger a MACD rollover, especially on this lower timeframe. 4. Volume – Legitimate Strength Volume on this breakout is clearly elevated, which confirms this is not a false move — at least not yet. Buyers are showing up, and that raises the bar for sellers to reclaim control. Summary: Breakout Confirmed, But Cooling Risk Rising HOOD has launched through resistance with conviction, but both RSI and MACD suggest this leg may be nearing exhaustion — watch for follow-through or failure in the next two sessions. Where can this go? Fibonacci Extension (From March Low to May High) Using: Swing low (March): ~$35 Swing high (May): ~$65.39 Pullback low (May 23rd): ~$60 Fib Extensions from this leg: 1.0x = $65.39 (already cleared) 1.618 = ~$84.27 2.0 = ~$95.39 That gives us a confluence zone at: $84–85 (1.618 Fib + Measured Move) $95–96 (2.0 Fib — extended run) Bullish on this one

NVIDIA is charging into a massive resistance wall with fading momentum and no volume punch—either it explodes through $150 or this rally dies at the top. Technical Breakdown – NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) 1. Price Action – Into the Fire NVDA is retesting its all-time high zone ($135–$150), which previously rejected multiple times. This yellow/red zone is a congestion and distribution range — classic bear battleground. Each push into this area has ended in selling pressure — so buyers need real power to break it this time. 2. MACD – Bullish, But Flattening MACD crossed bullish in early May, driving this run. However, momentum is now flattening out — a sign that follow-through is weakening. Histogram bars are shrinking → momentum is fading, not building. 3. RSI – Bullish but Tiring RSI peaked near 70 and is now at 63.06 — momentum rolled off just as price hit resistance. This sets up a bearish divergence risk: if price breaks higher and RSI makes a lower high, that’s a classic top signal. For now, RSI is still constructive, but losing steam. 4. Volume – No Climax Yet Volume is not exploding on this push into resistance — suggests this is not a conviction breakout (yet). Prior breakouts came with clear volume surges; without that, we could see a failed breakout / bull trap. 5. Contextual Read – High Expectations Sentiment around NVDA is extremely bullish with AI mania in full gear. But that’s exactly when tops form — when everyone’s already in, there are no marginal buyers left. The $135–$150 zone is where smart money sells to latecomers if there's no catalyst to push higher. Conclusion – NVDA at a Probable Inflection Point NVIDIA is at major resistance with waning momentum and no volume confirmation — the burden of proof is on the bulls. Unless: We get a decisive close above $150 on surging volume MACD extends bullish RSI holds above 60 This looks like a sell zone, not a buy zone.

Context – Structural OverviewBTC has returned to its all-time high resistance zone ($103K–$106K). The yellow zone marks a multi-month consolidation range — we’ve now re-entered the top of that range, testing for breakout. This is the fifth test of supply, with bulls showing growing aggression, but now showing early signs of exhaustion.Technical Breakdown1. Price Action – Multi-Touch ResistanceBTC is pressing up against the same resistance zone that capped price for months. Each pullback has created a higher low (marked with circles) — a sign of accumulation and pressure build-up. But Friday’s candle shows rejection from the upper range, forming a possible short-term shooting star.Key takeaway: Market is either coiling for a breakout… or setting a bull trap at major resistance.2. Volume – Weak Breakout Follow-ThroughVolume has not increased significantly on this recent breakout attempt — a red flag. The previous breakout attempt also failed on low volume. For a true breakout above $106K, we need to see a volume spike + strong candle body.3. MACD – Bullish Momentum SlowingMACD is still bullish, but the histogram is fading, suggesting momentum is weakening. No bearish crossover yet, but it’s flattening, indicating stall risk. If histogram turns red, expect consolidation or a potential pullback.4. RSI – Rejected at Overbought LineRSI tagged 70 and immediately reversed, failing to push into extreme bullish territory. Classic RSI rejection behavior at overbought levels — especially at key resistance. This adds weight to the idea of a short-term top or cool-off phase.Fibonacci & Structural ContextThis zone overlaps with previous all-time highs and top-side of consolidation. Technically, this is a Golden Pocket Zone for a bull breakout or failure. Macro crypto sentiment is bullish, ETF flows are strong, and institutional adoption is ongoing. However, BTC has rallied ~40%+ off March lows, and the market may need to shake out weak longs before pushing to new highs.Conclusion – High-Stakes Zone, Leaning Short-Term ToppyBearish Case (most likely short-term scenario)Failed breakout above $106K; RSI rejection + MACD slowing; No volume confirmation. Could trigger a pullback toward $96K–92K supportBearish Setup:• Entry: below $102.5K• Target: $96K, then 92K• Stop: above $106.5K• Risk:Reward ~ 1:3🚀 Bullish CaseStructure shows higher lows = ascending pressureIf BTC closes strong above $106K on high volume, the range is broken.Next target = $114K–$120KBullish Setup:• Entry: confirmed close > $106.5K• Stop: under $102K• Targets: $114K, then $120K+Final Thought:BTC is testing a multi-month ceiling with weak momentum, which often results in a short-term reversal or false breakout trap. But don’t fade it blindly — volume will confirm which way this breaks.

1. Price Action – Strong Breakout Potential Price has ripped straight up from ~$210 to $267+, a 25%+ move in just a few sessions. This vertical acceleration suggests strong institutional demand. It’s now testing the bottom of the prior supply zone ($280–$300) — if it breaks and holds above $280, the prior distribution becomes accumulation. That would open up $310+ targets quickly. 2. Volume – Signs of Accumulation Recent volume surge = signs of smart money re-entering. Notably, volume has increased on green candles, suggesting aggressive buying, not just short covering. If this move sustains volume on the next leg, bulls are in control short-term. 3. RSI – Overbought Can Stay Overbought RSI is above 70, yes — but in strong uptrends, RSI can remain overbought for extended periods. Think of RSI 70+ as a "momentum zone", not an automatic sell. No bearish divergence yet, so momentum is still in favor of bulls. 4. MACD – Bullish Momentum Still Intact MACD histogram is flattening, but lines are still wide and bullish. No confirmed bearish crossover yet. If price consolidates sideways and MACD resets slightly without crossing, it could be coiling for another leg up. 5. Sentiment + Macro Crypto sentiment is improving, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reclaiming strength. COIN is a beta play on crypto adoption — and institutional participation in crypto markets helps COIN directly. If broader crypto rallies, COIN could ride a sector tailwind. 6. Fib + Structural Level COIN is retracing about 78.6% of the prior down move — while this is a reversal zone typically, if price breaks above this, it implies a full retrace and bullish reversal. That would target Dec highs around $340. Bullish Trigger Levels Break and hold above $280 = confirmation bulls absorbed prior supply. Volume needs to stay elevated — otherwise this could be a “last gasp” rally. If $280 breaks, next stop: $300–$320. Bullish Setup Entry: Above $260 on volume Stop: Below $240 Targets: • Short-term: $295–$320 • Medium-term: $330–$340 Final Thought: This is a high-stakes decision zone. If bulls can punch through the supply wall, we could see explosive continuation. But if price stalls and momentum fades here, it may set up the perfect bull trap. Godspeed!

The chart of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) on the daily timeframe shows a potential major top formation and subsequent range-bound consolidation, hinting at possible exhaustion. Let's break it down technically: 1. Topping Zone (Marked Purple Box) This upper zone (~$380–$460) represents a distribution area: Volume: Notice the volume declines slightly during the uptrend, suggesting weakening conviction on the rally. Followed by increased red bars during the drop – classic distribution. Price Action: A blow-off move to the top followed by lower highs. This indicates buyer exhaustion. 2. Consolidation Range (Marked Yellow Box) After the drop, TSLA enters a range between ~$240 and ~$350: This is a classic bear flag / rectangle, and often follows a top pattern. It looks like lower highs and higher lows are forming, but price has just returned to the upper end of the range. We're now testing the upper resistance ($360), which is a decision point for either breakout or rejection. Conclusions Current volume remains muted during the recovery, which is not bullish. A true uptrend needs rising volume. Volume pattern supports a “bear market rally” narrative. If we pull a Fib from the top (~$460) to the bottom (~$240): The current level (~$342) aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement, a classic reversal zone in downtrends. Strong resistance is expected around this area. Moving Averages (50D & 200D): The 50-day MA is curving up from below, and price might be hitting resistance. The 200-day MA is overhead, it creates a death cross scenario in past data. 🔔 Summary – Are We at a Top? Yes, this looks like a potential short-term top within a broader bearish context.