BTC_ETH_Intra_Day_Analysis

BTC Trade Plan (December 08, 2025) (D1 Bearish / H4 Sell Rallies → Compression / H1 Neutral / M15 Chop) ⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4) • D1 bias: bearish (descending channel post-ATH) • D1 range (approx): 84,000 – 126,000 (current lower third) • Key D1 zones: • Supply: 100–105k (broken) • Demand: 88–90k channel low • H4 bias: sell rallies turning compression (ascending triangle forming) • H4 zones of interest: • H4 Sell Zone 1: [92,000 – 94,000] – recent rejection + supply cluster • H4 Buy Zone 1: [88,500 – 90,000] – weekend low + trendline Active setups counter-trend long on dip (whale accumulation support), trend-aligned short only on clear rejection. ⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon 🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4) Counter-trend long the channel low / whale accumulation zone. Time horizon: multi-day to weeks. 🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus) Buy dips to 89.5-90k or breakout above 92k. Time horizon: intraday to overnight. ▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus) Scalp range 90-92k or absorption plays — higher risk in chop. ▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs: BTC dominance rising → BTC outperforming alts short-term. 🟩 3.1 Long Setup (Trend-Aligned with On-Chain / Swing-Intraday) • Execution timeframe: H4/H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15 • Entry zone: [89,000 – 90,500] • Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, absorption_at_level, delta_divergence_low, range_low_absorption] Trigger conditions: • Successful defense 88-90k zone + CVD higher low • H1/H4 BOS up on volume • Whale accumulation continuation 🟥 3.2 Short Setup (Counter-Trend / Scalp Only) • Execution timeframe: H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15 • Entry zone: [92,500 – 94,000] • Pattern tags: [range_high_rejection, vwap_rejection, double_sweep_high] Trigger conditions: • Clear rejection with delta divergence high • Failure to break 94k pre-FOMC 🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels) Long setups: 87,500 (channel break = bear confirmation) Short setups: 94,500 (breakout = squeeze) 🟢 5. Targets Long (swing/intraday): • TP1: 92,000 (VWAP/H1) • TP2: 94,000-95,000 (supply test/H4) • TP3: 100,000+ (HVN/D1 optional) Short (scalp): • TP1: 90,000 • TP2: 88,500 ⬛️ 6. Position Sizing • Baseline trend-aligned long (on-chain supported): 1.0% • Counter-trend short: 0.4% • Adjustments: +20% (whale buying + clean lev + Fed tailwind) → Effective: longs 1.2% risk, shorts 0.3% max ⬛️ 7. Risk Flags • FOMC Wednesday → vol expansion risk • Thin liquidity mid-week • Residual weekend trauma → fake moves possible • Macro correlation re-assertion if equities dump ⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions Bull → bear flip: clean close below 88k with volume + funding negative Bear → bull flip: H4 close >94.5k + CVD reset + whale continuation ⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario Reject hard at 92-94k → descending triangle breakdown → fast move to 84-87k LVN void (bear trap completion, high risk short only with tight stop). ⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique • Assumptions: whale accumulation continues, Fed delivers dovish cut, no macro shock • Vulnerabilities: sudden risk-off equities dump, whale distribution resumption, FOMC hawkish surprise • Behavioural: do not chase breakouts pre-FOMC, do not average into losing shorts against whales ⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints Uncertainty: medium → require flow + pattern confirmation, no high lev, prefer size on confirmed absorption only.

ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025) (D1 / H4 / H1 / M15) ⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4) • D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt) • D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762 • Key D1 zones: • Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster) • Demand: $2,800–$3,050 • H4 bias: buy dips • H4 zones of interest: • H4 Sell Zone 1: [$3,250 – $3,350] – previous rejection cluster (decaying) • H4 Buy Zone 1: [$3,100 – $3,150] – OB + HVN + weekend absorption All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure. ⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon 🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4) • Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation). • Time horizon: multi-day. 🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus) • Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone. • Time horizon: today / overnight. ▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus) • Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140. • Time horizon: minutes–hours. ▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept • Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up. 🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned) • Execution timeframe: H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15/M5 • Entry zone: [$3,100 – $3,140] • Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying • Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, ob_retest_continuation, absorption_at_level, liquidation_spike_reversal] Trigger conditions: • Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy) • CVD positive or diverging bullish • ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65 • No aggressive ask walls rebuilding 🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels) Long setups: • Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand) • Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed. 🟢 5. Targets Long: • TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4) • TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1) • TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1) ⬛️ 6. Position Sizing • Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0% • Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news) • Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps ⬛️ 7. Risk Flags • Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk • Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia) • High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips • Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure) ⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative. ⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger. ⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique • Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock. • Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption. • Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops. ⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints Uncertainty: medium Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.

No financial advices / Just a trading diary 💸 Daily Intra-Day Reports powered by an institutional-grade pipeline (SMC + orderflow + derivatives + multi-timeframe confluence). Link: t.me/+qEniN092BHBkZGYy ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025) (D1 / H4 / H1 / M15) ⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4) • D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt) • D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762 • Key D1 zones: • Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster) • Demand: $2,800–$3,050 • H4 bias: buy dips • H4 zones of interest: • H4 Sell Zone 1: [$3,250 – $3,350] – previous rejection cluster (decaying) • H4 Buy Zone 1: [$3,100 – $3,150] – OB + HVN + weekend absorption All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure. ⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon 🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4) • Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation). • Time horizon: multi-day. 🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus) • Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone. • Time horizon: today / overnight. ▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus) • Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140. • Time horizon: minutes–hours. ▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept • Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up. 🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned) • Execution timeframe: H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15/M5 • Entry zone: [$3,100 – $3,140] • Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying • Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, ob_retest_continuation, absorption_at_level, liquidation_spike_reversal] Trigger conditions: • Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy) • CVD positive or diverging bullish • ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65 • No aggressive ask walls rebuilding 🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels) Long setups: • Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand) • Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed. 🟢 5. Targets Long: • TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4) • TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1) • TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1) ⬛️ 6. Position Sizing • Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0% • Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news) • Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps ⬛️ 7. Risk Flags • Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk • Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia) • High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips • Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure) ⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative. ⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger. ⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique • Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock. • Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption. • Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops. ⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints Uncertainty: medium Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.

No financial advices / Just a trading diary 💸 Daily Intra-Day Reports powered by an institutional-grade pipeline (SMC + orderflow + derivatives + multi-timeframe confluence). Link: t.me/+qEniN092BHBkZGYy BTC Trade Plan (December 08, 2025) (D1 Bearish / H4 Sell Rallies → Compression / H1 Neutral / M15 Chop) ⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4) • D1 bias: bearish (descending channel post-ATH) • D1 range (approx): 84,000 – 126,000 (current lower third) • Key D1 zones: • Supply: 100–105k (broken) • Demand: 88–90k channel low • H4 bias: sell rallies turning compression (ascending triangle forming) • H4 zones of interest: • H4 Sell Zone 1: [92,000 – 94,000] – recent rejection + supply cluster • H4 Buy Zone 1: [88,500 – 90,000] – weekend low + trendline Active setups counter-trend long on dip (whale accumulation support), trend-aligned short only on clear rejection. ⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon 🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4) Counter-trend long the channel low / whale accumulation zone. Time horizon: multi-day to weeks. 🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus) Buy dips to 89.5-90k or breakout above 92k. Time horizon: intraday to overnight. ▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus) Scalp range 90-92k or absorption plays — higher risk in chop. ▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs: BTC dominance rising → BTC outperforming alts short-term. 🟩 3.1 Long Setup (Trend-Aligned with On-Chain / Swing-Intraday) • Execution timeframe: H4/H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15 • Entry zone: [89,000 – 90,500] • Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, absorption_at_level, delta_divergence_low, range_low_absorption] Trigger conditions: • Successful defense 88-90k zone + CVD higher low • H1/H4 BOS up on volume • Whale accumulation continuation 🟥 3.2 Short Setup (Counter-Trend / Scalp Only) • Execution timeframe: H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15 • Entry zone: [92,500 – 94,000] • Pattern tags: [range_high_rejection, vwap_rejection, double_sweep_high] Trigger conditions: • Clear rejection with delta divergence high • Failure to break 94k pre-FOMC 🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels) Long setups: 87,500 (channel break = bear confirmation) Short setups: 94,500 (breakout = squeeze) 🟢 5. Targets Long (swing/intraday): • TP1: 92,000 (VWAP/H1) • TP2: 94,000-95,000 (supply test/H4) • TP3: 100,000+ (HVN/D1 optional) Short (scalp): • TP1: 90,000 • TP2: 88,500 ⬛️ 6. Position Sizing • Baseline trend-aligned long (on-chain supported): 1.0% • Counter-trend short: 0.4% • Adjustments: +20% (whale buying + clean lev + Fed tailwind) → Effective: longs 1.2% risk, shorts 0.3% max ⬛️ 7. Risk Flags • FOMC Wednesday → vol expansion risk • Thin liquidity mid-week • Residual weekend trauma → fake moves possible • Macro correlation re-assertion if equities dump ⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions Bull → bear flip: clean close below 88k with volume + funding negative Bear → bull flip: H4 close >94.5k + CVD reset + whale continuation ⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario Reject hard at 92-94k → descending triangle breakdown → fast move to 84-87k LVN void (bear trap completion, high risk short only with tight stop). ⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique • Assumptions: whale accumulation continues, Fed delivers dovish cut, no macro shock • Vulnerabilities: sudden risk-off equities dump, whale distribution resumption, FOMC hawkish surprise • Behavioural: do not chase breakouts pre-FOMC, do not average into losing shorts against whales ⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints Uncertainty: medium → require flow + pattern confirmation, no high lev, prefer size on confirmed absorption only.