Technical analysis by DragonCaoB about Symbol DOT: Buy recommendation (9/8/2025)

DOT Technical Analysis & Market Outlook September 2025 In May 2025, DOT’s price decisively broke out of the long-term weekly downtrend, followed by a successful retest in June 2025. However, despite the anticipation of many investors, the market entered a sideways consolidation phase instead of delivering an explosive breakout. I have also been patiently waiting for this breakout, though that patience has been increasingly tested. To refine my outlook, I shifted to the daily timeframe in search of confirmation on a smaller scale, closely monitoring for a breakout signal. Yet, the trading session on September 7, 2025, despite notable volatility, failed to produce a decisive breakout. That said, I am not discouraged. On the daily chart, although the price faced strong rejection on September 7 and the attempt to break higher encountered resistance, the structure still suggests that once this barrier is cleared, a breakout is imminent—likely within just a few sessions. From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend is clear. What remains is the alignment between the daily and weekly structures to ignite a strong move. Historically, such technical confirmations are often catalyzed by major news or events. After reviewing both the fundamental catalysts and potential risks, I outline three primary scenarios for DOT in the near term: 🔮 DOT Price Scenarios (Q4 2025) 🚀 Bullish Scenario (30%) JAM Upgrade launched successfully with no major technical issues. Polkadot Hub + Asset Hub attract leading dApps (DeFi, NFT, Gaming). Bitcoin maintains its post-halving uptrend. Institutional capital flows in via the Polkadot Capital Group (PCG). Projected Price: $33 – $52 (Moon case) ⚖️ Neutral Scenario (45%) Roadmap delivered on time, but no standout dApps emerge. Altcoin market rises modestly, yet capital remains concentrated in BTC & ETH. DeFi and DOT staking adoption grows, but fails to trigger mass adoption. Projected Price: $8 – $12 – $22 🐻 Bearish Scenario (25%) JAM or Elastic Scaling delayed or faces critical bugs. Liquidity exits altcoins; BTC dominance rises sharply. Regulatory pressure (DOT potentially classified as a security). End-of-cycle profit-taking pressure from investors. Projected Price: $4 – $6 📌 Conclusion Regardless of the scenario, it is increasingly clear that DOT has already established its bottom. The key question now is not if but when the breakout will arrive—an event that could align with the “Moon scenario.” I hope this analysis provides valuable insights and supports your investment decisions.