Technical analysis by moonypto about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (6/5/2025)

U.S. markets held steady despite weaker than expected economic figures, including lower ADP employment numbers and a soft ISM report. Risk assets showed resilience, suggesting investor confidence remains intactFormer President Trump was quick to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates and claimed the Fed is lagging behind the European Central Bank. Later, Trump called for the permanent removal of the U.S. debt ceiling adding to a growing sentiment that fiscal policy is now driving market momentum.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant introduced a new proposal, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which includes full tax expensing for new U.S. manufacturing and R&D investments. Attention now shifts to the July 4 vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBB), which will likely address the debt ceiling either through suspension or a limit increase by August.Institutional Interest in Crypto Continues to GrowInstitutional adoption of crypto assets is gaining traction. JPMorgan has approved the use of crypto ETFs as collateral across its lending, trading, and wealth management divisions, acknowledging digital assets as part of clients’ net worth.Public companies are also moving into crypto. K Wave Media and Treasure Global recently disclosed crypto treasury allocations, reinforcing the growing role of digital assets in corporate diversification strategiesCircle has filed for an IPO, targeting a valuation of $7.6 – $8.1 billion. At the same time, speculation is building around a token launch tied to a major Solana memecoin platform suggesting retail interest remains strongETF Flows Slow, But Outlook Remains PositiveAfter strong inflows in May, activity in spot ETFs cooled slightly. On June 4, BTC ETFs saw $87 million in inflows, while ETH ETFs brought in $57 million. Despite seasonal slowdowns, long-term fundamentals remain favorable. Both BTC and ETH issuance rates are now lower than global money supply growth, a supportive condition for price appreciationNew treasury demand is helping absorb supply. ETH is holding up well, repeatedly testing its 200 day moving average without breaking lower. The ETH/BTC ratio is stable near 0.025, indicating ETH is showing relative strengthBullish Positioning Builds Ahead of Potential BreakoutWith fiscal policies supporting risk assets, the environment remains favorable for a breakout in BTC. Structured products like bullish September ERKO Seagulls offer low cost exposure to upside moves.Some institutions are already positioning accordingly. Demand for September BTC call options at the $130,000 level is rising, signaling growing confidence in a possible rallyWe’ve recently seen a fresh buy signal from the Hash Ribbons indicator a tool that tracks stress levels within the Bitcoin mining sector. This signal comes as no surprise, given that Bitcoin’s hashrate has just hit new all-time highs. The Hash Ribbons compare the 30day and 60day moving averages of network hashrate to identify when miners are under financial pressureIn the short term, this pressure tends to be negative for price action. Why? cause wen mining becomes unprofitable for some operators, they often need to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs. These forced sales can weigh on the market temporarilyWhat matters is the historical pattern: these miner driven sell-offs often mark strong long-term entry points for investors. Outside of the unusual 2021 China mining ban, this indicator has been consistently reliable. So Current conditions suggest that accumulating around current levels is a well-timed move.US China Trade Relations Show Thaw, But Tech Tensions PersistMarkets responded positively to signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China. President Trump announced a partial rollback of planned tariffs, resetting them to a composite 55% level: 10% mutual tariffs, 20% fentanyl-related duties, and a carryover 25% from his first term. The agreement is reportedly close to finalization, pending sign-off from both Trump and Xi.However, optimism is guarded. The US Commerce Secretary reiterated a firm stance on tech exports, making it clear that China will not receive top-tier semiconductors. This highlights the deepening fragmentation of global supply chains, increasingly reflected in asset pricing.Middle East Risks Dampen Asia Led Relief RallyTensions in the Middle East resurfaced, overshadowing trade-driven relief in Asia. The US began pulling diplomatic personnel amid stalled nuclear talks and reported warnings of a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent crude jumping 7–9% intraday, while risk assets retreated as investors shifted into defensives.Bessent Signals Policy Flex, Hints at Broader RoleTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent, addressing lawmakers on trade and budget strategy, hinted at a potential delay to the July 8 tariff trigger, citing ongoing discussions with key trade partners. He also promoted the “Big Beautiful Bill,” a flagship initiative to boost US industrial competitiveness.Speculation about Bessent being positioned to replace Fed Chair Powell gained traction but was quickly dismissed. Bessent reaffirmed plans to remain at Treasury through 2029. Meanwhile, soft CPI data reignited pressure from Trump on the Fed to cut rates by a full percentage point, citing unsustainable debt service costs.Institutions Deepen Crypto ExposureInstitutional activity in crypto is gaining momentum:GameStop’s \$1.75B convertible note offering may include Bitcoin exposure, reflecting growing interest in crypto as a treasury asset.Ethereum ETFs logged 18 consecutive days of net inflows, with validator queue activity also climbing—signaling confidence in ETH’s yield profile.Solana ETF approvals may be imminent, as the SEC requests S-1 revisions.M\&A and IPO activity in the space is picking up, pointing to revived strategic interest.Despite recent price consolidation, the macro backdrop remains supportive for further institutional adoption and capital inflows into digital assets.The Israeli Air Force is attacking dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities, announcing that it will eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. Affected by this, the capital market fluctuated for a short time, with Bitcoin falling 4% in 1 hour and Ethereum falling 9%