Technical analysis by moonypto about Symbol DOGE: Buy recommendation (5/13/2025)

Global markets kicked off the week with renewed risk appetite after a major shift in US-China trade policy. Both nations agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs, marking a potential turning point in global commerce. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China will cut duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The de-escalation triggered a strong relief rally, with U.S. equity markets opening 3% higher as investors priced in a resurgence in cross-border trade activitySafe haven assets retreated in response. Gold, often a hedge against macro uncertainty and trade friction, dropped nearly 3% before trimming losses. The macro landscape is reverting to a more traditional alignment — firmer U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and weaker gold fueling renewed volatility selling across asset classes. The VIX has fallen to 18, and BTC short-dated implied volatility has compressed by over 5 pointsIn crypto, BTC and ETH saw an initial pullback following the announcement but have since stabilized near $104K and $2.4K, respectively. However, rotation within the digital asset space is becoming evident. BTC dominance has fallen below 63%, while alternative assets notably ETH are beginning to outperform.BTC remains caught between dual narratives: as a digital safe-haven and a high-beta risk asset. This identity conflict is contributing to its lack of directional clarity. With markets shifting from protectionism to a more trade-friendly backdrop, BTC could remain range-bound in the near term. That said, the macro pivot may influence options markets. A shift toward longer investment horizons typically supports demand for longer-dated options, reduces near-term put hedging needs, and steepens the volatility curve.ETH, in contrast, is exhibiting a more constructive trajectory. Funding rates remain neutral, and options skew continues to favor puts, suggesting the move is not driven by excessive speculation. The breakout above $2,400 aligns with momentum around the Pectra upgrade. We’re also seeing early signs of renewed interest in long dated ETH options, potentially positioning the asset as the next key allocation for institutional flows.On the macro front, the U.S. CPI print for April showed continued disinflation. Headline CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year, below expectations (2.4%) and the lowest since February 2021. Core CPI matched forecasts at 2.8%, also marking the slowest pace since March 2021. The softer inflation data further supports the current risk-on sentiment and underpins dovish policy expectations.Wait... what about DOGE? We’re meme degens, after allETH may have kicked off Alt Szn, but you already know memes are nextsit back and enjoy the showWith equities under pressure, a persistently cautious Fed, and the US credit rating highlighting Washington’s fiscal vulnerabilities, Trump appears to be feeling the heat. On Saturday, the president lashed out at Walmart for raising prices in response to tariffs and even signaled a willingness to travel to China to reignite trade talks.Bitcoin, however, is holding up comparatively well, briefly touching $107,000 on Sunday. The initial rally was likely sparked by Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase, adding to Strategy Inc’s usual weekend accumulation. That said, the move, which also saw a jump in BTC perpetual funding rates, was short-lived. Dealers long gamma seized the opportunity to lock in profits, triggering liquidations in leveraged long positions.While BTC has since retraced its weekend gains during Asia trading, it remains firmly within its recent range, underpinned by a notable uptick in institutional demand. Spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, pointing to resilient underlying support.What’s particularly striking is BTC’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s US credit rating downgrade. This reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value, a narrative that continues to gather momentum and may serve as a long-term catalyst.Meanwhile, the broader crypto narrative is also gaining traction. Coinbase (COIN) is set to join the S&P 500 later tonight, a symbolic milestone that underscores growing mainstream acceptance and institutional credibility. The timing is fortuitous, following its strategic acquisition of Deribit.Volatility markets are reflecting this optimism. Despite spot prices chopping sideways and macro uncertainties lingering, crypto vols remain relatively elevated. Notably, BTC call skew remains intact across most tenors, suggesting a structurally bullish outlook.Bitcoin showed a muted response to last Friday’s macroeconomic developments, even as the stock market experienced a strong rally. Institutional interest in spot ETFs remained consistent, providing underlying support to BTC. However, front-end implied volatility stayed elevated, with Bitcoin trading within a narrow $107k to $110k range.The persistent high levels of short-term volatility indicate that traders are bracing for potential headline-driven moves leading up to the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, set to take place from May 27 to 29. Attention is already turning to the list of speakers, which includes JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump.A similar scenario unfolded during last July’s Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. Back then, a keynote by President Trump coincided with a sharp spike in 1-day implied volatility, which surged past 90, followed by a quick reversal and a nearly 30% drop in BTC within two days. That event continues to influence current market sentiment.Although a comparable drop seems unlikely now, market positioning reflects a cautious stance. Open interest in perpetual futures has declined, and funding rates have returned to normal over the past 24 hours. Some prominent retail traders, like James Wynn, have also reduced their positions. There remains strong interest in short-term downside protection.Amid this backdrop, reports—later denied—of Trump Media considering a $3 billion crypto fundraising round have further heightened market sensitivity to headlines. Given these dynamics, BTC is expected to remain within its current range in the near future. Once the conference concludes and the major speeches are delivered, front-end volatility is likely to decline as event-related risk premiums dissipate.