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On the higher timeframe (24H), QQQ appears to be transitioning from consolidation into a renewed bullish expansion phase. Price has recently reclaimed the rising long-term trendline after breaking out of a corrective descending structure. This reclaim acts as a key inflection point, signaling that buyers are once again in control and willing to defend higher lows. From a technical perspective: The trendline breakout and retest establishes a bullish continuation structure. Price is now projecting a measured move higher, with upside targets aligning near 644 and 706, both of which coincide with prior structural levels and psychological resistance. The projected green path illustrates a stair-step advance, suggesting healthy pullbacks rather than a straight vertical move. From a macro standpoint, this setup aligns with expectations of easing financial conditions ahead of the next Fed rate cut. Historically, risk assets—particularly growth-heavy indices like QQQ—tend to front-run monetary policy shifts. As long as QQQ holds above the rising trendline and avoids a sustained breakdown below the prior consolidation zone, the bias remains bullish with higher highs favored. ⚠️ A failure back below the trendline would invalidate the bullish thesis and shift focus toward the lower support zone near the high-500s. Bias: Bullish continuation Timeframe: Swing / Position Catalyst: Macro tailwinds + technical structure alignment Not financial advice. Always manage risk.

- QQQ is coiled for an impulsive break. - Watch out to ride the momentum- QQQ is breaking out but the broader market is weak

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wi7X1Ebv/ QQQ has been in a compression triangle since the end of October, making lower highs and higher lows. This compression will collapse by Jan 21, coincidentally the same day SCOTUS is supposed to announce a tariff decision.

Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) Overview The QQQ ETF is currently positioned in a noteworthy technical setup known as the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), which has gained recognition through the work of Mark Minervini. The VCP is one of Minervini’s favored patterns for trading, characterized by a series of price contractions and tightening ranges that often precede a significant move. Support and Resistance Levels An important aspect of the current chart is the clearly defined area of support and resistance. These levels are visually represented on the chart, with the price having moved both above and below. Presently, the price action is “coiling” and “tightening,” which further supports the formation of the VCP. Potential Breakout Direction Although the VCP can result in a breakout in either direction, it typically resolves in alignment with the prevailing trend. In this case, the dominant trend has been upward, suggesting a higher probability of an upward breakout. Trade Management and Risk Considerations An alert has been placed on the upper downtrend line to monitor for a potential breakout. If the alert is triggered, it will be an opportunity to evaluate a favorable risk-reward entry point. Risk Disclaimer Readers are strongly encouraged to perform their own analysis and adhere to their personal trading strategies. All investments entail inherent risks, so it is vital to make careful and informed decisions when allocating capital in financial markets.

QQQ Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026 Technical Look: Price moved exactly as planned in my December 21 Weekly QQQ outlook (you can check the linked idea). The market bottomed on December 17, as anticipated in my December 14 Weekly QQQ prediction, and then started to move higher. Price reached both of my targets and began retracing from those levels. (Please refer to the linked post for details) Currently, QQQ is retracing from the highs and appears to be seeking additional liquidity and energy before any continuation higher. This consolidation phase may take longer than initially expected. Scenarios – Prediction: Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario I am looking for price to break and close above the 614.5 level on the 4H timeframe. A confirmed 4H close above 614.5 would indicate that the bullish scenario is in play, and I would consider engaging on the long side. Potential upside targets for this scenario: 621.75 – 629.5 Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario If price fails to break above 614.5, I would consider that QQQ is shifting into a bearish flow and seeking lower prices. In that case, I would look to engage on the short side. Downside targets for this scenario: 610 – 606.25 – 600 – 588.5 The 588.5 level represents the most extended bearish scenario. If price breaks 600 aggressively , I would then expect a move toward 588.5. Position Management Notes: Each target level may trigger significant pullbacks or reversals. Personally, I take partial profits at these levels and keep the remaining position open toward the next targets, while trailing the stop loss to breakeven. This is how I manage my positions. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.The black scenario worked pretty well. As I mentioned, if QQQ breaks the put wall at 614.75, I would be buying calls, targeting 621.5 first and then 629 (all time highs). I am still holding part of my position toward 629

Right now, QQQ is doing exactly what strong markets do before a decision, frustrate Price is making higher lows, but lower highs since that peak which is a classic trend continuation A sustained closes below the 50d, especially with volume opens path to 100d (~$602) Trend is still up, momentum is cooling & volatility is contracting & will likely resolve with a range expansion — determined by which side breaks first & without expansion, any move is suspect Current price (~$613) is just above value between ~$608–$612 Low volume above makes upside easier if buyers step in If price dips into $608–$612, buyers are statistically likely to defend Acceptance below ~$608 would flip the profile bearish short-term Acceptance above ~$620 favors a push back to range highs This supports a range-bound week, unless a catalyst appears The upside is capped without expansion & the downside is contained unless trend breaks The SMH/QQQ ratio is making new highs & accelerating above its rising MA Semiconductors are outperforming QQQ decisively Leadership is narrow, but powerful This is not what a market looks like before a broad rollover Key nuance is the the slope is steep → short-term stretched, but the trend is intact, not diverging As long as SMH/QQQ stays above its rising MA & does not break structure, QQQ pullbacks are statistically buyable, not trend-ending & this directly lowers the probability of a deep QQQ breakdown this week AAPL is dead weight, but not breaking down so it’s a drag, not a threat MSFT is actively subtracting from QQQ & this explains why QQQ hasn’t followed semis higher since MSFT weakness alone does not break QQQ unless others follow NVDA is supportive, not explosive & that aligns perfectly with SMH strength/QQQ compression instead of breakout so NVDA is acting as a stabilizer, which again argues against downside acceleration META shows not indication of trend failure PLTR supports risk appetite, even with volatility TSLA is a headwind, but it has been one for months — nothing new here Sideways-to-up within range (≈60–65%) QQQ holds ~$608–$612 Rotates between $610–$625 Fails to break down despite weak MSFT Any dip bought quickly This is exactly what strong SMH/QQQ ratios usually produce Bullish Expansion (≈25%) Break above ~$625 → $632–$637 Would require MSFT stabilizing (not even rallying), NVDA pushing toward range highs & SMH/QQQ staying bid If this triggers, QQQ likely tags ATH liquidity fast Bearish Breakdown (≈10–15%) Loss of ~$608 → test ~$602 Requires SMH/QQQ rolling over (not happening yet), NVDA losing $180 decisively & MSFT accelerating lower Without those, downside probably stays contained & corrective Risk is SMH/QQQ below its MA ( reassess everything ), NVDA < ~$180 (QQQ downside risk increases) & MSFT < ~&470 (pressure, but still not fatal alone) Semis are carrying the tape QQQ is more likely to frustrate both bulls & bears this week than trend hard AAPL META MSFT NVDA PLTR TSLA SPY QQQ

Seems to love its triple tops! See chart. In a diamond topping pattern with a triple top. Favor downside break. Risk of continuation pattern to the upside.

Nasdaq is having negative divergence in volumes, there'e a trampoline move in the process with a potential squeeze downside, be careful and watch for the correction in upcoming days.P.S. There are many other indicators that are being used for this TA, the above snapshot is only an example. Moreover, I've been doing technical analysis for quite some time, and I'm neither bullish nor bearish, I'm a swing trader who likes TA. And as you should know - always follow your strategy and make your own choices.

Every time price breaks below this uptrend channel, the volume is getting lower and lower and today, the volume is almost like nothing. I think this means that smart money has bought as much as they can from the weak hands. Retail traders shorted each time it broke below while smart money has bought from them and most retail traders will have their stop at the highs. Smart money will push prices to new highs forcing retail shorts to buy and retail longs will also buy on the breakout. This will provide the liquidity needed for large traders to sell into. Maybe they will gap prices up on the news to end the uptrend and cause urgency for retail traders to buy at the top.