ContraryTrader

It's a been awhile since I covered Tech and the sectors.. To make a long story short, I think the rally from April low is about 95% completed and anything up here is Distribution... After Distribution, usually a correction comes and given the Sept Seasonality I think this correcti9m could be 7-12%. Here's Qqq on the monthly... At this pace , the monthly trendline can be met at 585 give or take which is only 1% away.. with us being so close to resistance, they will not be able to push everything all at once.. in the next week or so you will start seeing more and more divergence where only a select few will pump this across the 585 goal line. Also on the monthly time frame, you can see that Qqq is outside its Bollinger bands, we won't make it out of Sept with that setup. Daily chart Daily candle is 60% outside its Bbands.. this is always a red flag on the indexes... Some Meme stocks like PLTR or Crcl may rally outside bbands but the indexes usually don't hold more that a day outside.. only in a few Seasonality squeezes Nov-Jan have I seen this Being outside Bollinger bands and near monthly and daily trendline is terrible Risk for a long here. Now the sectors.. There are really 4 main sectors that move Qqq. Consider Qqq a car and the sectors are important pieces (Engine,transmission). Here's XLC This is the sector of Meta, googl , and Nflx. At resistance here , Outside daily bbands SMH Home of Nvda,Tsm, and Avgo The overbought at resistance setup is the same as XLC XLK This is the biggest sector here Home of Msft , aapl and nvda also Same shit as the first 2 XLK may have room for 270 but that's it. The last 2 times I saw a setup on Qqq where sector and index were all telling me the same thing was Dec 15th 2024 and Feb 14th 2025 ; Qqq corrected a few days later of both dates .. The only sector that is an enigma to me right now is XLY The home of tsla and amzn Weekly chart This doesn't look bearish It's not overbought like the others which is because amzn and tsla have lagged the other big tech names on this rally Daily chart Needs to clear 228 for Tsla to push higher we head back to 218 Could they correct the rest of tech and pump just tsla and or amzn? Absolutely. Propping up a couple and dumping the rest is called a plunge protection.. it won't stop qqq from bleeding but instead of a 12% correction, you'd end up with a 7-10%. Fawkery. Let's see what happens with XLY So let's zero in on Qqq As far as trading goes today Nq 4hour money flow indicator combine with Qqq 15min money flow combined with us gapping out side bollingerband tells me do not chase the long here, there is a high chance we flush and close this gap today but I don't think we will break back below 578-579 before we tag 585 could come on PPI tomorrow.. So let's say today's resistance is 583, you'd short there with a 579-580 target.. be willing to add to your short up into 585. Cut losses above 585.. like I said , I don't think we break back below 577 until 585 is tagged so today may be a scalp short before the last leg up The bottom of this Daily channel is around 568-570, with the 20ma right below it.. that will be your short term target once 585 is reached. The real correction starts below 566 2 big catalyst next week are Fed minutes Wed and Jackson hole which starts on the weekend

Simple chart here ... I think Googl heads to 210 by sept then corrects Daily chart Looks like a rising wedge which I think will fulfill a correction from 210 to 180 between Sept and mid Oct.. I don't think googl will break back below 192 before 210 and I don't think googl breaks over 210

Long term, I think this stock is headed back to 300-400... Short term I think it's a high chance we see 740-800... Let me explain Back in Feb we tagged our long term resistance, corrected and then we retested it with a lower high on the RSI (Bearish divergence) that you can see on the monthly and weekly time frame Last few weeks Meta has pulled back while chips have pumped with good tariff news. I think Meta could be ready for another bounce here My reasons 1. On the lower edge of daily Bollingerband 2. The 3-4 hour money flow is too oversold here. Last 4 times this happened, Meta mover 5-7% 3. Daily hammer candle with volume Near the 50ema 4. Meta closed below is 20ma at 715 also has stiff price action also at So the best entry would be either to wait for a break over 720.00 then long it to 740-750.. Or 698-700 Meta would only be bearish immediately with a close below 680 price action and 50sma tradingview.com/x/fKOYWlgi.. Keep on mind googl has earnings this week and Meta will trade in sympathy on any advertising news The best short setup long term is to wait for a test of 780-800 on the monthly trend .

Looks like 250 is incoming on this stock V-shape recovery happening in real time Don't put too much Emphasison this rising wedge in terms of bearishness.. just use it as a range to trade... Will most likely trade inside of it until a catalyst comes to push it to breakout to the upside Looking for 230 this week I like any Dips down to 222. Range will be tight so keep that in mind if you are swinging short dated

Simple trade.. The moving averages shown on the chart are the 20/50 ma.. if aapl closes above 206 then long aapl back to 213.00 If aapl drops below 200.00 then short price back to 193 gap close.. 7$ move either way.. Aapl overall trend is neutral . I do not think aapl will break above weekly 20sma at 215.00 if it does pump. 215 would be a great area to Reload for a short back down Weekly chart.

Rising wedge just like Qqq, Spy, and most of tech sectors... Price should begin the decline down to 112.00 with a pit stop first at 128 or 200ma .. I expect a dead cat bounce there back to 134 before the next leg down As you can see here looking at the Chip sector SMH You have a similar Rising wedge at .236 fib. And you can also see that .236 has been a brick wall for a year. Zoom in close at SMH and you'll see friday finished with a reversal candle Daily RSI Confirms Either wait for a break below 139.00 or short anything over 140 with a stop above 145.00..

First off.. that weekly candle was horrendous Rising wedge here.. you can see it on the rsi as well The target of this rising wedge is 300 or daily 200sma.. Lets see how wed get there.. We would need to break below 330.00. 351-355 will be strong resistance if you see a test up in that area I would open a short for 330... cover at 330 and wait for the break below to short for 300 The sector tsla trades under is XLY.. I was saying for the last few days that tsla will have trouble unless XLY could clear 218.. now XLY has finished with a similar weekly reversal candleTsla Anything below 310 is a trap for a bigger move down to 200... right shoulder forming maybe... As long as price remains under 330 this setup is valid.

In the coming the tech sector will rollover and correct 10-12% in the month of june. This will represent a 50% retrace from April lows Weekly RSI is tagging Divergence resistance tradingview.com/x/v9LPGEGfI This space has only room enough to chop around for another few days so I'm thinking some news either comes out over the weekend or next weeks eco data comes out and causes a flush and break of this wedge The immediate move would be to the 200ma or 495, from there I expect a bounce back to 505-508 before the next leg down A break and close above 530 would negate this short.. I will go over some of the tech Sectors this weekend.. Don't swing any direction until this wedge is decided, will be choppy and annoying.. Theta decay heavy for 0dte. Just have patience and fade the pops.. all the signs are there. I've notice a rotation into heath ,utilities and defensive all week despite qqq making new highs If we happen to close below or near 515 that would leave us with a weekly reversal candleSMH daily chart and weekly RSI. Daily chart tag trend resistance and dumped Also rising wedge.. Weekly RSI Confirms 223 gap close incoming.. fade chips.. I think Avgo will play a big partXLY Tsla and amzn.. Pain incoming.. Double top knock line at 218 plus trendline resistance shoves this back down to 200So... Nq futures 3-4 hour went oversold.. What this means is after today's gap down and chop they will most likely pump tech higher Tues-Wed... qqq could annoyingly push back up to 522-525.. after that pump higher I expect a dump for 509 gap closeLast update for this post Qqq at the close yesterday Now here's NQ this morning Same thing, rising wedge... Market is up on strong job numbers but strong job numbers means Powell will be in no rush to cut with translates into a late fade or flush... Same scenario here I believe price is done moving up , Now we SELL

Looking for a leg up to its weekly 50 sma or 174 gap close Current pattern is A double bottom with pullback (Handle) Strong long over 161 Stop below 158 One of the things you notice on bullish pullback is the decreasing sell volume .. that usually means a bear trap.

Meta has really been then engine behind NASDAQ for the past 8 months.. Nvda and MSFT both took a back seat and traded sideways since mid 2024 but Qqq was able gain another 7% from July high until February Top on a few names and meta was a big player. Going into Q2 and Q3 the technicals are showing me that Meta will most likely take a major Haircut cut this year in comparison with the rest of MAG 7; Call it "catching up". I always like to take a look at the sector these tech stocks are trading in before I actually chart the stock; Doing that has helped me and giving me more confidence and accuracy with charting the stock under that sector.. So let's look At XLC This sector has 3 main players 1.Meta 2.Googl 3.Nflx When you start to see a sector about to implode, it usually means the biggest players in that sector will get hit the hardest.. I warned people back in December when XLC monthly MFI hit 90 and the RSI hit 80 that something was about to break. Since then Googl has dropped over 25%. I think this is just the beginning of the correction in XLC and the next big drop will come from Meta and NFLX XLC Monthly chart As I said before The monthly RSI and Money flow is extended and rolling over. Look at the moves from 2022 low, 136% gain with no pullback 😂. Also notice something Else this will be the first monthly Bearish engulfing since 2022 and 2020; both previous times led to corrections! Now the thing about monthly Bearish engulfing at the top of an uptrend of this magnitude means likely (65%) chance of a trend reversal. This is a monthly view which means the sell could happen at anytime but I think it will come when either Meta or NFLX reports My target for April For XLC is 86 minimum, this is 10% drop.. this may not seem like a lot but just look at what the drop from 105 to 95 has caused already.. This is just a minimum target folks. like I said this to me looks like a trend reversal and when that happens you don't really see capitulation until the weekly RSI tags 40. Now back to meta Monthly chart Red flags that stand out to me.. 1. Major rising wedge 2. Monthly RSI and MFI hasn't been this bad since July 2018 3. Lastly this stock went 12months 100% extended from it's monthly 50ma Weekly chart. My fib levels are from ATH and and IPO low I think Meta could test 462 by mid may; How we get there ? I'm look at an immediate rest of 540-550 in the next 2 weeks, if that support holds then we should have a move back up to 600-610 before ER then the real leg down comes My long term view for meta 50% retracement plus 2021 ATH and also the volume support from Jan 2024 earnings surge When I said AMD 85 incoming they thought I crazy When I said TSM 160 incoming when price was at 220 they ask me what I was smoking I'm telling you this stock tags 460 by end of may And depending on whether XLC holds 82.00 will determine if meta sees sub 400 So like I said meta 540-550 then bounce but keep in mind the Weekly 50ma.. I expect a bounce there so maybe we don't get 540 price action I think the first test of the Weekly 50ma at 559 will get bought up with a bounce back to 580-584.