METAX

Meta completed its grand cycle 3 on elliot wave structure and entering onto wave 4 now. Wave 4 typically retraces to 0.618 or 0.5 levels of wave 3 which is the zone marked in the box. That zone is also a demand zone and 500 level is the long standing trend line level. If you are eyeing an entry, be patiend and wait for the right level. As the famous adage goes, dont catch a falling knife.

For Swing or Options Tradersw w/ at least 12 month expiration: Surprise bear bar with follow-up, expect a few legs lower, expect a typical bottom wedge near left shoulder Great consolidation zone ~ 600, also Big Round Number = magnet Near 100 weekly EMA, needs to re-test that Near Trendline of Bull Channel Target: Long-term Measured move from 600 to 800 leads to 1000

META Game Plan – KZDZ Model 📊 Market Sentiment On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS, as expected. However, Powell’s remarks added uncertainty around further cuts in December, stating that future decisions will be data-dependent. One FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a notable shift from September’s unanimous decision. Following this, rate-cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, sparking short-term bearish sentiment as traders took profits and hedged exposure. Despite this volatility, the mid-to-long term outlook remains bullish given the broader liquidity cycle and easing policy stance. 📈 Fundamental META earnings missed expectations, triggering a sharp sell-off. While short-term sentiment is bearish, the long-term outlook remains supported by ongoing AI development initiatives. 📈 Technical Analysis 1-Hit oversold RSI on the daily timeframe. 2-Retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium zone (≈ $640). 3-Tested a major HTF Key Zone around $625, signaling potential accumulation. 📘 Model in Use – Key Zone with Discount Zone (KZDZ Model) The KZDZ Model identifies areas where discounted Fibonacci levels align with strong HTF liquidity zones, offering high-probability reversal opportunities. 1️⃣ Identify HTF Key Zone 2️⃣ Align with Discount Zone (0.5–0.75 range) 3️⃣ Look for confirmation structure on LTF 4️⃣ Execute and manage risk accordingly 📌 Game Plan Scenario 1 (Black Path): Watch for price to hit $625 and close above $640 (daily). Upon confirmation, plan to buy C640 options targeting $680–$700. Scenario 2 (Red Path): If price fails to reclaim $640, monitor for a deeper move to $560, then look for weekly rejection above that zone. Entry via C560 options, targeting $620–$700. 🎯 Setup Trigger Scenario 1 → Daily close above $640 after retesting $625. Scenario 2 → Weekly close above $560 zone. 📋 Trade Management Scenario 1: Buy C640 Calls → take profits at $680–$700. Scenario 2: Buy C560 Calls → partial profits $620–$640, rest at $680–$700. Move stop to breakeven after first target is hit. 💬If this META breakdown supports your outlook, like, comment, and follow. For deeper sentiment and strategy updates, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.

So what happend to META last week: I see a lot of you wondering what happend to the stock and what caused the drop. The answer is simple. The EPS was not so good. We can see on the chart that the EPS is only 1.05 and that they expected 6.723 . That is a chance of -84.38%. So for that big of a chance this is a small drop. The Reason: So the reason that this happend is because they need to pay some extra in taxes. The tax that they need to pay is around 15,9 billion dollar. This is because Trump has passed some tax laws that state that big companies need to pay taxes on profits that they have made outside of the US. This is only a one time tax that they need to pay and the reason that they are doing this is because they want to avoid companies to do tax evation and book more profits outside of the US. What we also do need to know is that made up profits outside of the US are being re-evaluated and that they need to pay tax on a portion of that profit because the see a portion of it as domestic assets. What we need to keep in mind: What we need to keep in mind here is that the EPS only dropped because of this tax and that there are people saying that the EPS without this tax would have been around 7.25 . So a good boost from what the analysist are expecting of META. So you could see this as a big discount you get on the stock price.

Introduction In global financial markets, arbitrage represents the pursuit of risk-free or low-risk profits by exploiting price discrepancies between different markets, instruments, or timeframes. Traders, institutions, and algorithmic systems constantly monitor global exchanges for such inefficiencies. While arbitrage opportunities may exist only for a fraction of a second, the principle behind them remains timeless — buy low, sell high, but simultaneously and strategically. Arbitrage is vital for ensuring market efficiency, liquidity, and fair pricing across borders. As global trading platforms become more interconnected, arbitrage has evolved from simple manual trades to complex algorithmic and statistical models involving multiple asset classes, currencies, and derivatives. This article explores the major types of arbitrage strategies practiced in global exchanges, their mechanisms, challenges, and significance in modern markets. 1. Pure or Spatial Arbitrage Pure arbitrage, also known as spatial arbitrage, is the most fundamental form. It occurs when an asset trades at different prices in two or more markets at the same time. The trader buys the asset from the cheaper market and sells it in the more expensive one. Example: If gold futures are trading at $2,000 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and at $2,010 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), an arbitrageur can buy gold on NYMEX and sell simultaneously on LME to earn a $10 per ounce profit, excluding transaction costs. Markets Where It Occurs: Equities: Dual-listed stocks (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell listed in London and Amsterdam). Commodities: Gold, oil, or agricultural commodities traded on multiple exchanges. Currencies: Foreign exchange markets across different trading hubs like London, New York, and Tokyo. Significance: Pure arbitrage enforces price parity across exchanges and enhances market integration. 2. Statistical Arbitrage Statistical arbitrage (StatArb) uses quantitative models and algorithms to identify pricing inefficiencies between related securities. Rather than relying on clear price differences, it depends on statistical correlations and mean-reversion principles. Key Features: Uses mathematical models, machine learning, and historical data. Exploits temporary mispricings in correlated assets. Positions are typically short-term and high-frequency. Example: If two historically correlated stocks like Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) diverge abnormally in price, a trader may go long on the undervalued one and short on the overvalued one, expecting convergence. Used By: Hedge funds (like Renaissance Technologies) Quantitative trading firms High-frequency traders Benefits: Works even in balanced markets (without visible price gaps) High automation potential Risks: Model inaccuracy Breakdown of historical correlations during volatile periods 3. Triangular Arbitrage (Currency Arbitrage) Triangular arbitrage occurs in the foreign exchange (forex) markets when discrepancies arise between three related currency pairs. Mechanism: Traders exploit the mispricing among three currencies by converting them sequentially to lock in a profit, ensuring that the cross-exchange rates are consistent. Example: Assume: EUR/USD = 1.2000 USD/GBP = 0.8000 EUR/GBP = 0.9600 The implied EUR/GBP rate should be (1.2000 × 0.8000 = 0.9600). If the actual EUR/GBP rate is 0.9650, the trader can buy the undervalued currency and sell the overvalued combination, earning a small profit per cycle. Significance: Triangular arbitrage keeps exchange rates aligned across currency pairs in global forex markets. It also showcases the law of one price, ensuring consistent valuation across all trading hubs. 4. Index Arbitrage Index arbitrage involves exploiting price discrepancies between a stock index and its constituent stocks or between the index futures and spot index. Example: If the S&P 500 futures are trading above the theoretical value implied by the underlying cash index, a trader can: Sell futures Buy all component stocks of the index As the prices converge, the arbitrageur closes the positions, realizing a profit. Technology Used: Algorithmic trading platforms capable of executing thousands of trades within milliseconds to manage all underlying index components simultaneously. Benefits: Helps maintain equilibrium between the derivative and spot markets Improves efficiency in index pricing Challenges: Requires high capital Needs automated execution and low latency infrastructure 5. Merger or Risk Arbitrage Merger arbitrage, also known as risk arbitrage, focuses on the price difference between the current market price of a company being acquired and the proposed acquisition price. Mechanism: When Company A announces plans to acquire Company B for $50 per share, but Company B’s stock trades at $47, the $3 difference reflects deal risk. Arbitrageurs buy Company B’s shares expecting the deal to close and pocket the $3 gain when it does. Types of Deals: Cash mergers – Fixed payout, lower risk Stock-for-stock mergers – Complex due to share exchange ratios and market volatility Risks: Deal may fail due to regulatory issues or financing problems Delays can reduce annualized returns Example: During Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard, risk arbitrage funds took long positions in Activision anticipating the regulatory approval would lead to price convergence with the offer. 6. Convertible Bond Arbitrage Convertible bond arbitrage exploits mispricing between a company’s convertible bonds and its underlying stock. Mechanism: A convertible bond can be exchanged for equity at a preset conversion rate. If the bond is undervalued relative to the stock, traders go long the bond and short the stock. The strategy profits from bond yield and volatility adjustments, regardless of stock direction. Used By: Hedge funds specializing in credit and volatility markets. Risks: Credit risk of issuer Interest rate changes Liquidity risk in bond markets Significance: Balances pricing between equity and fixed-income instruments of the same issuer, enhancing cross-asset efficiency. 7. Cross-Border Arbitrage Cross-border arbitrage involves exploiting price differences for the same asset or similar assets across different countries’ exchanges. Example: A stock listed in both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) may trade at slightly different prices due to exchange rate fluctuations or trading hour differences. Traders use ADR (American Depositary Receipts) and GDR (Global Depositary Receipts) to execute such arbitrage. Factors Affecting Prices: Exchange rates Tax policies Market liquidity Capital controls Importance: Encourages global price synchronization and helps maintain efficient capital allocation across regions. 8. ETF Arbitrage Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) track indices or baskets of assets. When an ETF’s market price deviates from its Net Asset Value (NAV), arbitrage opportunities arise. Mechanism: If ETF price > NAV → Sell ETF, buy underlying assets. If ETF price < NAV → Buy ETF, sell underlying assets. Example: If the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades at $501 while the index value is equivalent to $500, an arbitrageur sells SPY and buys the basket of S&P 500 stocks. Who Performs It: Authorized Participants (APs) such as large financial institutions that can create or redeem ETF shares in bulk. Outcome: Maintains price parity between ETFs and their underlying assets, ensuring accurate tracking performance. 9. Futures Arbitrage (Cash and Carry) Cash and carry arbitrage involves exploiting differences between the spot price of an asset and its futures price. Mechanism: When futures are overpriced relative to spot, traders short futures and buy spot. When futures are underpriced, they buy futures and short spot. Example: If crude oil trades at $80 (spot) and the 3-month futures are at $85, a trader can buy oil at $80, store it, and sell the futures at $85, locking in a risk-free return (adjusted for carrying costs). Applications: Common in commodities, currencies, and equity indices. Impact: Ensures futures contracts remain aligned with their underlying assets, enforcing cost-of-carry relationships. 10. Options Arbitrage Options offer several arbitrage setups based on pricing inconsistencies between options and their underlying assets. Common Strategies: Put-Call Parity Arbitrage: Exploits violations of the relationship between call, put, and underlying asset prices. Box Spread Arbitrage: Combines options to lock in a risk-free payoff. Reverse Conversion Arbitrage: Uses options and underlying stock to capture overpricing in call or put options. Example: If put-call parity is violated (Call – Put ≠ Stock Price – Present Value of Strike), arbitrageurs construct synthetic positions to earn the difference. Benefit: Enhances derivative market efficiency and volatility pricing accuracy. 11. Cross-Asset Arbitrage Cross-asset arbitrage identifies pricing inefficiencies across different asset classes such as equities, bonds, commodities, and derivatives. Example: When the movement in the oil market affects airline stock prices disproportionately, arbitrageurs may exploit the imbalance using statistical models. Importance: Promotes multi-market integration Encourages price alignment across sectors Helps in portfolio hedging and diversification 12. High-Frequency and Algorithmic Arbitrage Modern arbitrage strategies rely heavily on high-frequency trading (HFT) and algorithmic systems capable of executing trades in microseconds. Techniques Include: Latency arbitrage (profiting from speed differences between exchanges) Quote stuffing and order book imbalances Cross-exchange liquidity scanning Infrastructure Needs: Co-location servers near exchange data centers Low-latency networks Advanced AI models for predictive execution Impact: Enhances liquidity and efficiency Reduces price gaps But also raises concerns about market fairness and flash crashes Conclusion Arbitrage is the heartbeat of global financial efficiency. From simple cross-market trades to complex algorithmic models, each type of arbitrage contributes to price uniformity, market liquidity, and systemic stability. While profit margins per trade are razor-thin, large-scale institutional participation and automation make it an essential function in maintaining balance across global exchanges. However, with evolving technology, regulation, and competition, arbitrage has transitioned from being a manual opportunity to a data-driven discipline. Traders who understand not only the price discrepancies but also the structure of global markets, latency, and cross-asset relationships hold the edge in today’s interconnected world. In essence, arbitrage ensures that no asset remains mispriced for long — making global markets fairer, more integrated, and efficient for all participants.

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Meta dumped on earnings because of a one time tax event. I have long been following this company and have missed obvious setups multiple times. We are right at the .5 fib. This megaphone was drawn on the monthly chart but I zoomed in to show the swing trade setup I am looking at. We note a basing OBV (momentum) and a nice reset of volatility. My plan would be to enter around here, average down if we approach 600$ and swing up to the green price target.

Hello everyone, I hope you are all well Today I will be updating MetaTrader's stock for the coming months. The price has risen significantly after the recent crash, which was due to inflation and other geopolitical factors. I previously predicted the bottom, and the stock has reached almost all of its targets. You can see the idea below. Now I expect to see a decline in the coming months, and the targets are as outlined in the analysis. Warning: Be careful about using leverage. This is because we may see manipulation before the drop, and this will cause you losses When I predicted the bottom previously

META completed a 5-wave sequence in Feb. 2025. From April 2025 low, META started a new 5-wave sequence. Wave 1 is complete and we've been in Wave 2 since the ATH. I believe META is presently in the last leg of Wave 2 -- Wave c. It's hard to tell when this C wave will complete. Perhaps there will be a positive divergence when Wave 2 completes.

Meta may have completed its long-term C wave after reaching new all-time highs at the top of the macro channel. The structure now shows emerging bearish sequences on lower timeframes , hinting that the next yearly cycle could be corrective or bearish rather than impulsive. While the theoretical WCL sits far below (around 350–400), such a deep retracement would imply a 50% drop — an extreme but technical possibility. A more realistic path could be a 20–30% macro correction as the market digests Meta’s extended rally and rebalances valuation. Key Points: Macro C wave completed at the upper channel boundary. Lower timeframe sequences turning bearish. WCL remains the ultimate downside target, though not the base case. Expect a potentially bearish or corrective year ahead for Meta, within the long-term bullish structure. Invalidation: If price reclaims the 780–800 zone and breaks above the red B high, bearish structure fails.