AMZNX

ناحیه هدف (جعبه سبز) در سمت راست بالا، یک مستطیل سبز با برچسب «هدف» قرار دارد. خط سبز مورب نقطه‌چین، قیمت را از پایین‌ترین کف، به داخل این جعبه پیش‌بینی می‌کند. این نشان‌دهنده هدف صعودی است، به شرطی که برگشت روند ادامه پیدا کند. نشانگر شکست هدف خیلی پایین‌تر از قیمت، یک برچسب زرد نقطه‌چین با عنوان «هدف شکست‌خورده» وجود دارد. این آستانه پایین‌تر را مشخص می‌کند—اگر قیمت به آنجا سقوط کند، الگوی صعودی باطل شد.

AMZN اکنون در شکست رگرسیون کوتاه است. من این تجارت را قبول نمی کنم.

آمازون اولین فروش bond دلاری خود را از سال 2022 راه اندازی کرده است و 15 میلیارد دلار را برای تسریع سرمایه گذاری در زیرساخت AI تضمین می کند. تقاضا بسیار زیاد بود و به 80 میلیارد دلار رسید که نشان دهنده اعتماد سرمایه گذاران قوی به رشد بلندمدت آمازون بود story. این وجوه از مخارج سرمایه ای، تملک، گسترش مرکز داده و سررسید بدهی های آتی پشتیبانی کرد. این move با روند گسترده‌تری در میان غول‌های فناوری که به شدت سرمایه را برای سیستم‌های مقیاس AI افزایش می‌دهند، مطابقت دارد. متا قبلاً 30 میلیارد دلار منتشر کرد، آلفابت 25 میلیارد دلار جذب کرد و اوراکل در ماه سپتامبر 18 میلیارد دلار فروخت. افزایش بودجه نشان‌دهنده افزایش هزینه‌های تراشه‌های پیشرفته، زیرساخت‌های ابری و مراکز پرظرفیت data است که برای رقابتی ماندن در رقابت AI لازم است. آمازون، بزرگ‌ترین ارائه‌دهنده ابر جهان از طریق AWS، به طور فزاینده‌ای بر محاسبات با کارایی بالا و مدل‌های مولد AI متمرکز شده است. سرمایه جدید به آمازون فضای بیشتری برای گسترش ظرفیت، افزایش حاشیه سود از طریق اتوماسیون و تقویت مزیت رقابتی خود در خدمات شرکتی AI می دهد. سهام آمازون (AMZN) از مقاومت 258 دلار عقب نشینی می کند و یک اصلاحی move را به سمت منطقه حمایت کلیدی در حدود 232 دلار تشکیل می دهد. این سطح با ساختاری که در نمودار هفتگی دیده می شود همسو می شود و به عنوان یک منطقه تقاضای کوتاه مدت عمل می کند. یک واکنش صعودی قوی در اینجا احتمالاً زمینه را برای آزمایش مجدد بالاترین سطح 258 دلار و به دنبال آن شکست احتمالی در صورت بازگشت حرکت فراهم می کند. اگر 232 دلار نتواند حفظ شود، حمایت major بعدی در منطقه خط روند صعودی قرار می گیرد، که از اوایل سال 2023 روند صعودی آمازون را هدایت می کند. اصلاح عمیق تر همچنان امکان پذیر است، اما تا زمانی که قیمت بالاتر از خط روند باقی بماند، ساختار گسترده تر همچنان صعودی است. RSI در حال کاهش است و نشان می دهد که اصلاح به جای معکوس شدن روند، سالم است. اگر آمازون از پشتیبانی عقب نشینی کند، هدف صعودی major بعدی بین 280 تا 300 دلار است که با برنامه های افزودنی فیبوناچی بلند مدت همسو می شود.

1. The Macro Landscape: What Drives Global Markets? At the foundation of global market behavior lies macroeconomics—GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, employment, and institutional policies. Central banks like the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and RBI are the most influential actors. When central banks raise interest rates, borrowing costs rise, slowing economic activity but controlling inflation. When they cut rates, markets usually react with optimism as liquidity increases and risk-taking becomes cheaper. In recent years, inflation has re-emerged as a major theme worldwide. High energy prices, supply bottlenecks, and increased government spending pushed inflation to multi-decade highs in several countries. As a reaction, central banks tightened aggressively, influencing bond yields, stock valuations, and currency movements. For example, a strong U.S. dollar caused emerging market currencies to weaken, affecting capital flows and import costs in developing economies. Meanwhile, GDP growth patterns are shifting. Mature economies such as the U.S. and Europe are growing slower, while emerging markets like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and parts of Africa are becoming growth engines. This shift impacts global trade trends, investment decisions, and multinational strategies. 2. Geopolitics: The Hidden Force Behind Market Volatility Geopolitical tensions have always influenced global markets, but in recent years these tensions have intensified. The world is moving toward a multipolar balance of power, with the U.S., China, India, Europe, and regional blocs shaping trade and diplomacy. Key Geopolitical Themes Affecting Markets Today US–China strategic rivalry: This impacts technology, semiconductors, trade regulation, and the global supply chain structure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict: Triggered energy shocks, affected grain supplies, and forced Europe into an energy transition faster than planned. Middle East tensions: Influence crude oil pricing, shipping routes, and insurance costs for global trade. Indo-Pacific militarization: Affects shipping security and trade routes, especially the South China Sea. Geopolitics doesn't just cause wars; it shapes regulation, technology access, investment flows, and commodity markets. Whenever geopolitical risk spikes, investors typically shift toward safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Swiss franc. 3. Global Trade and Supply Chains: Rebuilding After a Shock The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, leading companies and countries to rethink their dependency on single-source suppliers. As a result, the world is witnessing a shift from globalization to “selective globalization” or “friendshoring.” New Supply Chain Trends Companies are moving manufacturing closer to home or to politically aligned nations. India, Mexico, Vietnam, and Eastern Europe are becoming new manufacturing hubs. The semiconductor industry is decentralizing, with new plants in the U.S., Japan, India, and Europe. Even though global trade volumes are recovering, structural changes are underway. Transportation costs, freight capacity, digital logistics, and sustainability regulations will define the future of the supply chain. 4. Technology: The Most Powerful Market Driver Technology is transforming markets at every level—from stock exchange infrastructure to consumer purchasing behavior. Key Technological Drivers AI and Automation AI is enhancing decision-making, trading, risk management, supply chain optimization, and consumer analytics. Algorithmic trading and AI-driven market forecasting are becoming mainstream. Fintech and Digital Assets Digital payments, blockchain-based systems, tokenization of assets, and CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) are reshaping global finance. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, blockchain technology is being adopted for cross-border settlements and trade documentation. Clean Energy Technologies The shift toward renewable energy, EVs, hydrogen, battery storage, and smart grids is creating new investment cycles globally. Governments are incentivizing decarbonization, making green assets a major sector of focus for long-term investors. 5. Commodity Markets: The Lifeblood of Global Trade Commodities are central to global market movements. They influence inflation, national budgets, trade balances, and sectoral performance. Major Commodity Themes Crude Oil: Prices fluctuate based on OPEC decisions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand. Oil remains the most influential commodity. Natural Gas: Europe’s energy crisis made LNG shipping and pricing central to global trade stability. Gold: Acts as a hedge against inflation, market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty. Food Grains: Weather patterns, wars, and export restrictions directly affect food inflation. Industrial Metals: Copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth minerals are crucial for electric vehicles and renewable technologies. The world is entering a phase where clean energy metals may drive commodity markets as strongly as oil did in the 20th century. 6. Currency Markets: The Barometer of Global Strength Currency markets determine competitiveness, trade flows, and investment allocations. The U.S. dollar continues to be the global reserve currency, meaning changes in USD strength ripple across the world. Key Currency Insights A strong dollar hurts emerging markets by making imports expensive and increasing debt burdens. A weak dollar boosts global liquidity and reduces commodity costs. Digital currencies and CBDCs are emerging as new currency formats that could challenge traditional cross-border payment structures. Currency convertibility and stability remain critical for global confidence and investment. 7. Global Equity Markets: From Wall Street to Emerging Markets Equity markets reflect economic expectations. Today, the world is seeing a bifurcation: US markets are driven by technology giants, AI advancements, and strong consumption. European markets face slow growth but benefit from strong industrial and luxury sectors. Asian markets (India, Japan, South Korea) are gaining momentum due to manufacturing expansion, demographic advantages, and digital adoption. India has emerged as a standout performer with strong domestic demand, stable policy frameworks, and increasing global investor attention. Sector-wise, global markets are currently driven by: Technology (AI, cloud, semiconductors) Renewables and clean energy Financial services and fintech Pharmaceuticals and biotech Infrastructure and defence 8. Future Trends Shaping Global Markets Looking ahead, several mega-trends will influence global financial direction: 1. AI and robotics integration into daily life Massive productivity gains but significant job reskilling needs. 2. Green transition Trillions of dollars flowing into clean technologies. 3. Geopolitical realignment New alliances, trade blocks, and emerging multipolarity. 4. Digital economy dominance Data becoming the world’s most powerful economic resource. 5. Rising importance of emerging markets Asia and Africa driving global consumption. 6. Climate disruption Impacting agriculture, manufacturing, insurance, and global mobility. Conclusion Global markets are no longer driven by a single factor—they are shaped by an intricate network of economics, geopolitics, supply chain shifts, currency movements, commodity cycles, and rapid technological innovation. For traders, investors, policymakers, and businesses, the key to navigating global markets lies in understanding these interconnected forces and recognizing how change in one corner of the world can create a ripple across all markets.

در تحلیل این هفته، ما به بررسی EUR/USD، AUD/NZD، AUD/USD، S&P500، AMZN و MSFT پرداختیم. به بخش تحلیل هفتگی بازار ما خوش آمدید. برای دریافت بینش‌های عملیاتی فارکس که راهنمای شما در هفته‌های پیش رو بود، آماده شوید. در این قسمت ما به موضوعات زیر می‌پردازیم: 🔍 جفت‌ارزها و سطوح کلیدی حمایت/مقاومت. 🧲 تحلیل روند: بررسی اینکه شتاب بازار به کجا در حال تغییر است و چه عواملی ممکن است محرک آن باشند. 📆 رویدادهای اقتصادی قابل توجه (تصمیمات نرخ بهره، گزارش‌های تورمی و اظهارات مقامات بانک مرکزی). 🛠️ تنظیمات معاملاتی: نقاط ورود بالقوه، مناطق حد ضرر (استاپ لاس) و اهداف سود. 🎯 نکات مدیریت ریسک: چگونه با انضباط کافی به هفته پیش رو بپردازید. چه یک معامله‌گر روزانه باشید، چه نوسان‌گیر (Swing Trader) یا صرفاً علاقه‌مند به پیشتاز ماندن در بازار، در این بخش برای شما ارزش افزوده وجود داشت. 🔔 به خاطر داشته باشید: بازارها سریع تغییر می‌کنند. از این تحلیل به عنوان تنها *بخشی* از فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری معاملاتی خود استفاده کنید – نه تمام آن. همیشه بررسی‌های لازم (due diligence) خود را انجام دهید و ریسک خود را با دقت مدیریت کنید.

🔋 1. What is Green Energy Trading? Green energy trading involves a system where renewable electricity is produced, tracked, valued, and sold. Unlike traditional energy trading, green energy trading requires verifying that the electricity comes from renewable sources. This is done through certificates, audits, and digital tracking systems. In simple terms: A solar or wind plant generates electricity. That electricity is sent into the grid. A certificate is issued verifying that this electricity came from renewable resources. Traders, companies, or utilities buy this certificate or the actual power to meet sustainability goals or sell further in the market. This creates a transparent pipeline where clean power can be monetized and traded like any commodity. 🔄 2. Key Components of Green Energy Trading (A) Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) One of the most important trading instruments. A REC represents proof that 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity was produced from a renewable source. There are two main types of RECs: Solar RECs (S-RECs) – generated from solar projects Non-Solar RECs (N-SRECs) – generated from wind, hydro, biomass, etc. Corporates and institutions buy RECs to meet renewable purchase obligations (RPOs) or sustainability targets. (B) Green Power Exchanges Countries now have dedicated trading markets for renewable energy. For example: India operates green energy segments on IEX and PXIL. Europe trades green power on EPEX, Nord Pool, and others. At these exchanges, renewable energy is bought and sold through: Day-ahead markets Term-ahead markets Real-time markets Green day-ahead markets (GDAM) Green term-ahead markets (GTAM) This ensures transparent price discovery and fair competition. (C) Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) A PPA is a long-term contract between a green power generator and a buyer. Large companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Reliance, and Tata Steel use PPAs to directly procure renewable energy at fixed prices for many years. This helps companies reduce electricity cost volatility and carbon footprint. (D) Carbon Credits & Emission Trading Although not the same as green energy trading, carbon credit trading supports the green energy ecosystem. Every ton of CO₂ emission reduced can be converted into a credit and sold to polluting industries. This system incentivizes renewable projects financially. ⚙️ 3. How Green Energy Trading Works (Step-by-Step) Step 1: Generation A renewable energy plant (solar park, wind farm, hydro station) produces electricity and injects it into the power grid. Step 2: Certification An agency verifies the energy source and issues RECs or other green certificates. Step 3: Listing on Exchanges Producers list their green power or certificates on: Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) Power Exchange India Limited (PXIL) European or American energy markets Step 4: Bidding & Trading Buyers such as: Utility companies Industries Corporates Traders Distribution companies (DISCOMs) place bids to purchase renewable energy or certificates. Step 5: Settlement Traded units are delivered based on contract type — real-time, day-ahead, or long-term. 🧩 4. Why Green Energy Trading Is Growing (A) Climate Change Awareness Countries have committed to reducing carbon emissions under the Paris Agreement. Green energy trading supports clean energy targets. (B) Corporate Sustainability (ESG Goals) Companies now have strict Environmental, Social, and Governance reporting mandates. Purchasing green energy helps them meet ESG scores. (C) Falling Renewable Energy Costs Solar and wind generation costs have dropped drastically in the past decade. This makes green energy competitive with fossil-based electricity. (D) Government Regulations Governments worldwide mandate renewable purchase obligations (RPOs). Industries must buy a certain percentage of energy from renewable sources. 📉 5. Price Dynamics in Green Energy Trading Green energy prices depend on: Seasonal variations (wind peaks in monsoon, solar peaks in summer) Grid congestion Demand–supply imbalances Policy changes REC market demand Fuel costs for backup systems In markets like India, green prices sometimes fall below conventional electricity prices due to oversupply during peak renewable generation hours. 📈 6. Opportunities for Traders Green energy markets offer multiple trading opportunities: (A) Volatility-Based Trading Prices fluctuate across day-ahead, real-time, and intraday markets. (B) Arbitrage Opportunities Traders capitalize on: Time-based price difference Region-based differences Certificate value fluctuations (C) PPA Trading Some economies allow secondary trading of PPAs. (D) REC Speculation RECs can be bought low and sold high as demand increases. 🏭 7. Opportunities for Businesses Industries Benefit Through: Lower energy costs Reduced carbon footprint Compliance with RPO Long-term price stability via PPAs Improved corporate sustainability ratings Many companies adopt green energy to reduce electricity bills by 20–40%. 🌍 8. Global Growth of Green Energy Trading Countries leading the growth are: India Germany USA China UK Nordic countries India’s green day-ahead market (GDAM) and green term-ahead market (GTAM) are among the fastest-growing segments in the energy space. 🤖 9. Digital Transformation in Green Energy Trading Modern green energy trading uses: AI-based forecasting Blockchain for energy certificates IoT-based smart meters Cloud-based energy management systems Virtual power plants (VPPs) Blockchain ensures transparency, preventing fraud in RECs and PPAs. 🔮 10. Future of Green Energy Trading (A) Green Hydrogen Trading Hydrogen produced using renewable energy will form a major trading market. (B) Battery Energy Storage (BESS) Integration Stored renewable energy will be traded during peak demand. (C) Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading Consumers will directly buy and sell energy through digital platforms. (D) Carbon-Free 24/7 Markets Companies will match energy consumption with renewable generation every hour. 🧠 Conclusion Green energy trading is transforming the global energy landscape. It enables renewable energy producers to monetize their power, provides companies a way to meet sustainability goals, and offers traders new opportunities through certificates, markets, and contracts. As renewable energy grows, green energy trading will continue to expand, becoming one of the most important components of the future energy economy.

بر اساس دیدگاه شخصی‌ام، فکر می‌کنم بازار در آستانه یک اصلاح (Correction) سخت قرار دارد. به واگرایی ایجاد شده در اندیکاتور RSI در تایم فریم هفتگی نگاه کنید. من تصمیم گرفتم کارم با این سهم تمام شود. موفق باشید همگی🌷

1. Understanding Derivatives A derivative is a financial instrument whose value is derived from the price of an underlying asset. The underlying can be stocks, bonds, commodities, interest rates, exchange rates, or market indices. The most common types of derivatives include forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Forwards are customized contracts traded over the counter (OTC), where two parties agree to buy or sell an asset at a future date at a predetermined price. Futures are standardized contracts traded on exchanges, reducing counterparty risk through clearing houses. Options give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price within a certain period. Swaps involve the exchange of cash flows or financial instruments between two parties, often to manage exposure to interest rates or currencies. Derivatives are used for hedging, speculation, and arbitrage, making them vital tools for both risk management and profit generation. 2. Growth of Derivatives in Emerging Markets Emerging markets such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia have witnessed rapid growth in derivatives trading over the past two decades. Initially, their financial systems were dominated by cash or spot markets. However, the volatility in exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates created demand for instruments that could mitigate these risks. India’s derivatives market, for example, began in 2000 with index futures on the NSE (National Stock Exchange). Today, it is one of the largest derivatives markets globally in terms of contract volumes. China launched commodity futures exchanges in the 1990s and gradually introduced financial derivatives, although its government maintains strict control to prevent speculation-driven instability. Brazil’s BM&FBOVESPA (now B3) is another major hub, offering derivatives on interest rates, currencies, and commodities. This expansion reflects both the globalization of finance and the increasing sophistication of local investors and institutions. 3. Role and Importance in Emerging Markets a. Risk Management Derivatives are crucial for hedging against uncertainties in currency rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. For instance, exporters in India use currency futures to protect themselves from exchange rate fluctuations, while farmers in Brazil hedge their crop prices through commodity futures. By allowing investors and companies to transfer risk to those willing to bear it, derivatives enhance financial stability. b. Price Discovery Futures and options markets help in determining the expected future price of an asset based on market sentiment. For example, futures prices of crude oil or gold on Indian exchanges provide valuable information to producers, traders, and policymakers about expected market conditions. c. Market Liquidity and Efficiency Derivatives attract speculators who add liquidity to the market. This increased participation tightens bid-ask spreads and improves overall price efficiency. Furthermore, arbitrage between spot and derivatives markets ensures prices remain aligned, reducing distortions. d. Financial Deepening A vibrant derivatives market signals financial maturity. It encourages institutional participation, supports innovation, and contributes to the development of related sectors such as clearing and settlement systems, credit rating agencies, and risk management firms. 4. Challenges Faced by Emerging Markets While the benefits are clear, emerging markets face several structural and operational challenges in developing robust derivatives markets. a. Regulatory and Legal Framework In many countries, the regulatory environment is still evolving. Over-regulation can stifle innovation, while weak supervision can lead to excessive speculation and financial crises. For instance, in some Asian markets, derivatives trading was temporarily banned after being linked to market volatility. Emerging markets need transparent, consistent, and globally aligned regulations to build investor confidence and attract international participation. b. Limited Market Depth and Participation Retail participation in derivatives is often low due to limited awareness and the perception of high risk. Institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, may face restrictions on using derivatives. As a result, markets may be dominated by a few large players, reducing competition and liquidity. c. Counterparty and Credit Risk In OTC derivatives markets, the risk that one party may default on its obligation remains significant. The lack of centralized clearing mechanisms in some markets exacerbates this problem. Developing central counterparty (CCP) systems and improving risk management practices are vital. d. Infrastructure and Technology Efficient trading, clearing, and settlement require advanced infrastructure. Some emerging markets still face technological constraints, slow transaction processing, or inadequate risk monitoring systems, limiting the scalability of derivatives trading. e. Market Manipulation and Speculation Because derivatives offer high leverage, they can be used for speculative purposes, sometimes leading to market manipulation or bubbles. Regulatory oversight and investor education are essential to prevent misuse. f. Low Financial Literacy Many investors in emerging markets lack a full understanding of derivatives. Without proper knowledge, they may engage in speculative trading or misuse derivatives, leading to losses and erosion of trust in the system. 5. Case Studies India India’s derivatives market is among the most developed in the emerging world. The NSE and BSE offer a wide range of products, including equity futures and options, currency derivatives, and commodity contracts. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) plays a crucial role in regulating the market, ensuring transparency and risk management. India’s introduction of interest rate futures and index options has enhanced hedging opportunities for institutional and retail investors alike. China China’s derivatives market has grown rapidly but remains tightly controlled by regulators to avoid excessive speculation. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange are major platforms. China’s government uses derivatives strategically to stabilize commodity and currency markets, reflecting a cautious but steady approach to liberalization. Brazil Brazil’s derivatives market, integrated through B3 Exchange, is known for innovation in interest rate and currency products. It supports both domestic and international investors and serves as a model of how derivatives can aid monetary policy and risk management in volatile economies. 6. Future Prospects The future of derivatives trading in emerging markets is promising, driven by technological innovation, financial integration, and policy reforms. Digital transformation and algorithmic trading will enhance liquidity and efficiency. Blockchain and smart contracts could make derivatives trading more transparent and secure. Cross-border trading and integration with global exchanges will deepen market access. ESG-linked derivatives may emerge, allowing investors to hedge environmental and sustainability risks. However, to realize this potential, emerging markets must invest in education, infrastructure, and governance. Collaboration with global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank can also provide technical assistance and policy guidance. 7. Conclusion Derivatives trading has evolved from a sophisticated financial tool to a vital pillar of modern emerging economies. It helps manage risks, enhances liquidity, and strengthens the resilience of financial systems. However, the path to maturity is complex—emerging markets must balance innovation with regulation, speculation with stability, and access with responsibility. As these economies continue to integrate into the global financial system, the expansion of derivatives markets will play a key role in supporting sustainable growth, attracting foreign investment, and providing the foundation for a more resilient global economy. With prudent regulation, improved market infrastructure, and growing investor sophistication, the future of derivatives trading in emerging markets is both dynamic and promising.

AMZN Hidden Breakout Setup — افزایش سریع فشار گاما AMZN هفته گذشته را با ترکیبی عجیب از قدرت و تردید سپری کرده است - به سمت بالا حرکت می کند اما دائماً در همان سطوح مکث می کند. برای اکثر معامله گران، به نظر می رسد تجمیع استاندارد است. اما وقتی چشم انداز GEX را پوشش می دهید، ناگهان کل تصویر آشکار می شود: AMZN درست بین دو فیلد گاما major قرار دارد - و هر کدام که در مرحله بعد فعال شود، یک جهت قوی move را باز می کند. این همان story است که شمع ها به تنهایی نمی توانند تشخیص دهند. نمودار 4H - یک کانال در حال افزایش با دفاع از نقدینگی خاموش AMZN در حال بالا رفتن از داخل یک کانال بالارونده تمیز است و به هر نقطه ساختاری در مسیر احترام می گذارد: * تاییدیه های متعدد BOS و CHoCH * یک خط حمایتی صعودی محکم * پایین تر انباشته تمیز * یک منطقه واکنش قوی در 244-247 هر بار که AMZN به خط روند رو به رشد سقوط می کند، جهش شدید و کنترل شده است - دقیقاً همان چیزی است که وقتی خریداران در حال دفاع از قفسه نقدینگی هستند که در بالای پایه مثبت GEX قرار دارد، انتظار دارید. عمل قیمت تقریباً خیلی تمیز است.
این معمولاً به معنای یک چیز است: منافع نهادی. نمودار 1H - فشرده سازی قبل از وضوح در بازه زمانی 1H، AMZN در حال انجام یک کار کلاسیک است: * شیب تند بلافاصله جذب می شود * پرش غرفه در همان سقف * افزایش حجم در مناطق قابل پیش بینی رخ می دهد * محدوده هر ساعت تنگ تر می شود این توزیع نیست
این ضعف نیست این فشرده سازی قبل از شکست است، نوعی که زمانی شکل می گیرد که قیمت در یک منطقه خنثی گاما در انتظار یک کاتالیزور است. هنگامی که AMZN از این جیب خارج شد، نوسانات باز گشت — hard. GEX Data - نقشه واقعی در پشت رفتار AMZN اینجاست که تصویر کامل جمع می شود. 🔹 دیوارهای عظیم تماس/GEX در 250–255 این act سقف های مغناطیسی را دوست دارند.
با نزدیک شدن AMZN به 250+، جریان های پوششی سفت تر شده و قیمت قبل از اقدام بعدی تثبیت می شود. به همین دلیل است که AMZN به طور مکرر در حدود 247-250 متوقف می شود. 🔹 منطقه خنثی GEX بین 242-248 این محدوده ای است که AMZN اکنون در آن گیر کرده است. جیب های خنثی = فشرده سازی فرار → شمع های کنترل شده → حرکت کم → رفتار انباشت مانند آهسته به نظر می رسد، اما در واقع تولید انرژی است. 🔹 ناحیه منفی سنگین GEX در 235–240 این منطقه خطر است.
اگر AMZN به زیر 240 برسد، فشار پوشش نزولی کاهش می یابد و قیمت به سمت پایین شتاب می گیرد. در حال حاضر، AMZN نیمه بالایی جیب خنثی را در آغوش گرفته است - یک شیب صعودی. 🔥 پیشنهادات معاملاتی بر اساس ساختار + GEX 📌 بازی برک آوت صعودی (احتمال بالاتر) در صورتی معتبر است که AMZN 247–248 را با قدرت بازیابی کند. ورود: 246.50–248 شکست (تأیید 1 ساعت) اهداف: * 250.00 (اولین آهنربا GEX) * 252.50 (دیوار CALL/GEX دوم) * 255.00 (بالاترین قفسه NET GEX مثبت) STOP-LOSS: زیر 242.50 چرا کار می کند: هنگامی که از 248 بالاتر می رود، AMZN وارد پلکانی از مناطق مثبت GEX می شود → رو به بالا در یک drift کنترل شده ادامه می یابد. 📌 پخش شکست نزولی (فقط در صورت عدم موفقیت 240) در صورت شکستن قیمت 240 و رد تست مجدد معتبر است. ورودی: شکستن و رد کردن زیر 239.80 اهداف: * 237.50 (اولین قفسه GEX منفی) * 235.00 (major پشتیبانی قرار داده) * 230.00-232.00 (جیب نقدینگی) STOP-LOSS: بالاتر از 243 چرا کار می کند: زیر 240، AMZN در یک محیط GEX منفی قرار می گیرد ← پوشش ریسک حرکت رو به پایین را تسریع می کند. 🔥 پیشنهادات معاملاتی گزینه ها (بر اساس GEX) 📌 گزینه های صعودی بازی اگر AMZN 248+ را پس بگیرد: خرید: 250 درجه سانتیگراد یا 255 درجه سانتیگراد (1 تا 2 هفته خارج از خانه) دلیل: این قراردادها درست در منطقه مثبت GEX قرار دارند که قیمت به سمت drift صعودی می رود. Spread ایمن: 245/255 Call Debit SpreadGEX از کل move پشتیبانی می کند. 📌 Bearish Options Play اگر AMZN 240 را شکست: خرید: 240P یا 235P دلیل: هنگامی که AMZN به گامای منفی کاهش می یابد، به سرعت گسترش می یابد. Spread ایمن: 240/230 Debit SpreadIdeal را برای نزولی کنترل شده قرار دهید. 📌 گزینه های خنثی بازی اگر AMZN در 242–248 باقی بماند: فروش حق بیمه: * کندور آهنی * خفه کردن کوتاه * گسترش اعتبار *تقویم GEX خنثی = فشرده سازی نوسانات → ایده آل برای فروشندگان. فکر من AMZN در یکی از تمیزترین تنظیمات مبتنی بر گاما که در ماه نوامبر دیده‌ایم قرار دارد. قیمت در داخل یک جیب باریک GEX در حال چرخش است، نوسانات سرکوب شده است، و کانال افزایشی نشان دهنده انباشت آرام است. نقشه راه ساده است: * بالای 248 → AMZN 250–255 را هدف می گیرد * زیر 240 → AMZN به GEX منفی می رود * داخل 242-248 → خرد کردن آرام و زوال زمان یک major move در حال بارگیری است - و GEX قبلاً مسیر را نشان می دهد. این چشم انداز فقط برای اهداف آموزشی و نه مشاوره مالی است. همیشه ریسک خود را مدیریت کنید و طرح خود را معامله کنید.

1. Understanding Sanctions Sanctions are restrictions placed by one country or a group of countries on another nation or entity to enforce international laws or influence political or economic decisions. They are often used as alternatives to military intervention, serving as diplomatic or economic pressure tools. Sanctions can be applied for various reasons — to punish aggression, prevent nuclear proliferation, counter terrorism, or respond to human rights violations. The key players in imposing sanctions are major economic and political blocs such as the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and powerful individual nations like the United States. The U.S., for instance, uses the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to design and enforce sanctions globally. 2. Types of Sanctions Sanctions come in several forms, each targeting different aspects of an economy or government operation. The most common types include: Economic Sanctions: These restrict trade and financial transactions. Examples include import and export bans, restrictions on investments, or freezing of assets. Economic sanctions are intended to weaken a nation’s economic stability. Trade Sanctions: Trade restrictions can prevent the export of critical goods like oil, technology, or weapons. For instance, sanctions on Iran’s oil exports have significantly limited its main source of revenue. Financial Sanctions: These target banking systems, financial institutions, and access to international payment systems like SWIFT. Russia, for example, faced severe financial isolation after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Travel and Visa Sanctions: These restrict the movement of political leaders, business executives, or individuals associated with illicit activities. Military Sanctions: These include arms embargoes that prevent the sale or supply of weapons and military technology. Sectoral Sanctions: These are targeted at specific sectors, such as defense, energy, or finance, to maximize economic pressure while minimizing collateral damage. 3. Objectives of Sanctions The main goal of sanctions is to influence the behavior of governments or organizations without direct conflict. Their objectives include: Deterring Aggression: Sanctions can discourage military invasions or aggressive policies by raising the economic costs of conflict. Promoting Human Rights: Countries imposing sanctions often aim to pressure regimes accused of human rights abuses to change their policies or release political prisoners. Preventing Nuclear Proliferation: Sanctions against nations like North Korea and Iran are designed to stop the development of nuclear weapons programs. Countering Terrorism: Sanctions can block financial channels and assets used by terrorist groups. Maintaining Global Stability: Sanctions can be part of a coordinated global response to maintain international peace and uphold the rules-based order. 4. Mechanisms and Enforcement Sanctions are typically implemented through laws, executive orders, or international agreements. Enforcement mechanisms include: Asset Freezes: Preventing access to money or property held in foreign accounts. Export Controls: Blocking the sale of critical goods, technology, or services. Financial Restrictions: Limiting a country's access to international capital markets or payment systems. Secondary Sanctions: Penalizing third-party countries or companies that do business with the sanctioned nation. Monitoring compliance is crucial. Organizations such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) help track illegal financial activities and ensure that sanctions are effectively enforced. 5. Impact on the Global Market The effects of sanctions ripple through the global economy, influencing trade balances, currency values, and market confidence. The impact varies based on the size and integration of the targeted country into the global market. a. Trade and Supply Chains Sanctions often disrupt global supply chains. For instance, sanctions on Russia and Iran have affected oil and gas supplies, driving up energy prices worldwide. Similarly, export restrictions on high-tech goods to China have reshaped global semiconductor and electronics markets. b. Energy Markets Energy is one of the most affected sectors. Russia’s sanctions after the Ukraine conflict caused global oil and gas price surges, forcing Europe to seek alternative energy suppliers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also faces indirect pressure when sanctions alter global energy supply and demand dynamics. c. Financial Markets Financial sanctions can restrict global capital flow. When large economies face sanctions, investors often move funds to safer markets, affecting currency exchange rates and global liquidity. For example, the freezing of Russian foreign reserves shook confidence in the global financial system and led to a rethinking of foreign reserve management by other nations. d. Currency and Inflation Countries under sanctions often experience currency depreciation due to restricted foreign investment and reduced exports. This leads to inflation and reduced purchasing power. Conversely, global markets can see inflation spikes when critical exports like oil or metals are restricted. e. Global Business and Investment Multinational corporations often have to withdraw from sanctioned regions to avoid penalties. For example, Western companies left Russia in 2022, leading to billions in losses. At the same time, other countries—like China, India, and Turkey—sometimes step in to fill trade gaps, reshaping global business networks. 6. Winners and Losers of Sanctions Sanctions do not impact all players equally. Losers: The sanctioned nation’s economy typically suffers severe downturns—loss of exports, unemployment, and financial isolation. Ordinary citizens bear the brunt of inflation and shortages. Winners: Competing countries may benefit by capturing markets vacated by the sanctioned nation. For example, when Western countries stopped buying Iranian oil, Asian importers received discounted rates. Some nations, particularly those with large domestic markets or resource independence, can mitigate sanctions' effects. Russia and Iran, for example, have developed parallel financial systems and strengthened ties with non-Western economies. 7. Geopolitical and Strategic Consequences Sanctions also alter geopolitical alliances. Countries facing sanctions often form new partnerships to bypass restrictions. The growing trade between Russia, China, and Iran illustrates the emergence of an alternative economic bloc. Furthermore, sanctions can accelerate de-dollarization—efforts by countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade. This trend threatens to reshape the structure of global finance in the long term. 8. Criticisms and Limitations While sanctions aim to promote peace and justice, they often have unintended consequences. Critics argue that: Humanitarian Impact: Sanctions can lead to shortages of food, medicine, and essentials, harming civilians more than political elites. Limited Effectiveness: Some regimes adapt through smuggling, black markets, or new alliances, reducing the intended pressure. Global Economic Distortion: Sanctions can destabilize global markets, raising costs for consumers worldwide. Political Misuse: At times, sanctions are used to advance national interests rather than collective global welfare. 9. The Future of Sanctions in a Multipolar World As global power becomes more multipolar, sanctions may evolve from unilateral tools into complex, multilateral strategies. The rise of alternative payment systems, digital currencies, and regional alliances is challenging traditional sanction mechanisms. Future sanctions are likely to become more targeted, using data analytics and AI to precisely identify and restrict individuals or companies, minimizing collateral damage. Digital finance, blockchain monitoring, and trade transparency will shape how sanctions are enforced. 10. Conclusion Sanctions are a central instrument of global diplomacy and economic policy. They influence trade routes, investment flows, and geopolitical alignments across the world. While they serve as a non-violent means to uphold international norms, their ripple effects on the global market can be profound—affecting everything from oil prices to inflation and financial stability. The challenge for the international community is to design sanctions that are strategic, humane, and effective, achieving political goals without destabilizing the world economy. In an era of interconnected markets, the role of sanctions will continue to grow—reflecting not only power politics but also the evolving architecture of the global financial and trade system.