Shadowfigure

Hi everyone! Today we are looking at Bitcoin Cash (BCH) which has seen its share of drama including unexpected parabolic moves in the past. We're starting our analysis on the Monthly chart so we can zoom ALL the way out, and I am in log mode as I prefer this when I do my technical analysis. The chart looks very different here if you aren't in log mode, but when you turn it on, this YEARLY downtrend line appears, and we happen to be testing it at the moment during an extremely bullish time.I'll be honest, I have not been a fan of BCH in the past, but my feelings about such things have led to missed opportunities, and so when we do TA, we focus on the data, and we try to be as objective as possible to avoid letting bias or emotions influence what we see or do. Now the BCH story is quite interesting if you dig into it. Those that were around when it launched will never forget that day, as you received free BCH,1:1 with Bitcoin (BTC) given it is a fork of BTC. The challenge and drama set in since this was an attempt by a centralized entity led by Roger Ver to try to unseat Bitcoin by offering new features and capabilities he felt were lacking in the original blockchain. But this was met with much controversy, since the greatest value of crypto is in its decentralized ledger, and some might even say its mysterious origins. Who is the real Satoshi? Will we ever know? Is it one person, or a collection of people? Perhaps an entity or a foreign government? We may never know. In fact, I am sure we will never know.In any case, the self-proclaimed "Bitcoin Jesus", Roger Ver, was recently arrested on Fraud Charges. Ver faces three counts of mail fraud, two counts of tax evasion and three counts of subscription to a false tax return, according to the United States Department of Justice. He was an early adopter of Bitcoin, and smart enough to purchase the domain Bitcoin[dot]com. He's facing 109 years in prison, which is probably extreme, but it seems that someone is trying to make an example out of him. He's been accused of misuse of power, suppressing innovation, and dissent. Today his networth is estimated in the range of $500 million to $1 billion. On December 3rd, 2024 his legal team filed a motion to dismiss a criminal indictment against him having to do with an exit tax where he's accused of failing to accurately disclose the value of his assets when he renounced his US citizenship in 2014 after acquiring citizenship of St Kitts and Nevis. With the incoming Trump Administration in the United States, and the "Free Roger Ver" movement, one doesn't have to think twice about the potential for a Trump pardon. Trump has been highly favorable to crypto and Bitcoin, which is easily seen by the amount of donations he received from the community and the skyrocketing of the space following his November 5th win. Just yesterday, Trump named David Sacks of the PayPal Mafia as his "Crypto and AI Czar". David Sacks is closely tied to Peter Thiel who brought him into PayPal (see the book: "The Founders") in its early days. Peter Thiel invested heavily in Donald Trump's Presidential Campaign. While David Sacks is also a co-founder and partner of a VC firm Craft Ventures who invested in Multicoin Capital. Multicoin Capital is a VC firm who backed Solana in 2017.Are you making a connection yet? Why all of this backstory? Well, we would be remiss to ignore the macro environment and the potential for favoritism as Trump has already stated intention for multiple Pardons, and today, Roger Ver is one of the leading bets in Polymarket for a pardon. If you were tracking, you'll remember that Polymarket correctly called the U.S. Election.Okay... so without further background speculation, lets get back to the charts with these data points in mind to assist us. Not creating bias, but making us smarter and improving our probabilities. Remember all markets are based on speculation and price is simply a function of supply and demand. Zooming in to the 12 hour chart, identify a few interesting data points:1. The cup and handle pattern off the most recent high around $720 draws nicely on the chart. 2. The break over the 200-day Moving Average.3. Notable volume to support the break out of the 200-day MA.4. Another test and arguably we are seeing a cross over of the multi-year downtrend line. Remember this is in a confirmed Bull Market, along with my rabbit hole analysis of the macro environment that can directly affect speculation on BCH above.This alone gets me excited and bullish on BCH. But it doesn't stop there.I want to provide a different view from the Weekly Chart, where I've tracked over to Binance from the Coinbase chart which has less historical data, and i'm making a potential bear case. It's critical to always consider the bear case on everything. A bear might say, Look at the upward facing wedge pattern, and how the price is just testing the outside of it, which happens to coincide with a key point on the Coinbase chart showing the multi-year downtrend. One should be careful and look for more confirmation on the chart for a breakout, rather than calling a breakout before it happens, since it is just as likely (if not more likely) that we bounce off these lines as resistance. I remain bull however, as I'm using other data points, and we'll take a look at this a little more closely below.Zooming in to the 4-hour chart, I'm tracking 2 upward channels. You can see the larger channel, and the more recent skinnier and steeper channel that have formed. I'm also tracking a fibonacci extension that seems to fit the current move after a quick swing outside of the skinnier channel. What I like about this extension is the bounces off the fibs, with the potential to reach higher extensions that break out of the downtrend. I am also using the bearish rising wedge here to show the risk of the reversal if this is a real resistance point. A quick review of the Weekly Chart on the BTC pairing shows some very obvious signs that support a bullish hypothesis. A breakout of the downward wedge that started from the high in March of this year 2024 also breaks above the BTC 200-day MA, and we see some increasing volume though nothing quite obvious from a volume perspective yet. However, I wouldn't be surprised if that volume increases sharply in the near future. A MACD bullish crossover on this chart would support this hypothesis. We also appear to have potentially completed an ABC correction of the massive move from the lowest low in June 2023. Finally, as we use our fib extension to look for targets of a bull breakout, we see a nice confluence of the May 2021 high falling somewhere in the range of 2.618 and 3.618 extensions.Using multiple view and time scales along with indicators to support our hypothesis is enough to give us a bullish hypothesis. When you add in the very present Roger Ver story, and the storied history of BCH, we realize that there is at least enough speculation for those that missed the opportunity Bitcoin itself provided. While I am indifferent on the potential of BCH, I have no bias or real interest in this asset personally. I can admit that following the BTC 200-day breakout I took a very small position of a single BCH given the upside potential.When considering how to protect yourself against the challenges of inflation, the opportunity the crypto space offers, and the exciting developments we are in store for in the coming year, one cannot ignore the potential BCH provides that is told only by the charts. The opportunity to maximize an investment with BCH has strong risk/reward, given the previous high was $4300 on Coinbase. There's a whole other story behind that parabolic move, but I'll let you look into that one yourself. Thanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling.- Shadowfigure

مرحبًا أصدقائی! سنقوم الیوم بإجراء تحلیل على واحدة من أقدم العملات المشفرة وأقلها قیمة - هذا صحیح، إنها Litecoin! لقد مررت بنصیبی من الصعود والهبوط مع LTC على مر السنین (هل ترى ماذا فعلت هناک؟ 😀)، ومؤخرًا تساءلت عن أهمیتها بنفسی. ومع ذلک، تظل ضمن أفضل 30 عملة من حیث القیمة السوقیة، بقیمة سوقیة حالیة تبلغ 10.33 ملیار دولار أمریکی). بالنظر إلى الرسم البیانی الشهری، نرى على الفور هذا المثلث المتماثل المحکم. إذا نظرت إلى نفس الرسم البیانی الشهری لـ XRP Ripple، یمکنک أن ترى نفس المثلث المحکم الذی اندلع مؤخرًا إلى حرکة بنسبة 350٪ فی شهر واحد فقط، مما أثار صدمة العالم. هل یمکن أن تکون Litecoin التالیة؟ دعنا نلقی نظرة على الرسوم البیانیة ونرى ما إذا کان هناک دعم آخر data لهذه الفرضیة. قبل أن نفعل ذلک، لا یمکننا أن ننکر ما هو واضح للعیان بأم أعیننا. Litecoin قد خرج للتو من هذا المثلث فی الأسبوع الماضی وبدأ فی الصعود. ولکن إلى أی ارتفاع یمکن أن یصل؟ کان أعلى مستوى على الإطلاق 413 دولارًا. بینما ننتقل إلى الرسم البیانی الیومی، یمکننا أن نرى أن امتداد فیبوناتشی یتماشى مع التحرک إلى 400 دولار. لقد رسمت أیضًا تصحیح ABC على الرغم من أنه لا یبدو صحیحًا تمامًا. مع ذلک، یمکنک الحصول على تصحیح إلیوت Waves وABC فی هذه الحرکة بهذه الإحداثیات. سیصبح امتداد فیبوناتشی أکثر وضوحًا مع تکبیرنا أکثر. هنا حیث تصبح الأمور مثیرة حقًا. غالبًا ما ینسى محللو العملات المشفرة عدیمی الخبرة استخدام زوج BTC کمؤشر رئیسی. یوضح هذا الرسم البیانی 3 أشیاء مثیرة تجعل التحرک الصعودی ضد Bitcoin وشیکًا. 1. الإسفین الهائل المتجه نحو الهبوط والذی یعمل بالصدفة جنبًا إلى جنب مع مثلث متماثل لزوج الدولار الأمریکی. 2. المتوسط ​​المتحرک لمدة 200 یوم (الخط الأرجوانی) الذی اخترق LTC أعلاه. 3. الحجم الثابت المتزاید مع اقتراب LTC بوصات من خط الاتجاه العلوی للإسفین. عند تکبیر الرسم البیانی لمدة 4 ساعات لزوج LTC/BTC، نکتشف مثلثًا صاعدًا واضحًا کان یطبع نفسه منذ أدنى مستوى فی 13 نوفمبر، مع سقوط مقاومة خط الاتجاه العلوی مباشرة على متوسط ​​التحرک لمدة 200 یوم. کان الاختراق فوق هذا الخط بحجم التداول إشارة شراء واضحة، وأدى إلى ارتفاع فی زوج الدولار الأمریکی فی وقت لاحق من ذلک الیوم. للحصول على الشفافیة الکاملة، استخدمت هذه الإشارة لاتخاذ موقف على الفور، والذی قمت بتوسیعه بشکل أکبر حیث أکد زوج الدولار الأمریکی الاختراق. عند النظر إلى زوج LTC/USD والتکبیر على الرسم البیانی لمدة ساعة واحدة، نلاحظ أن أدنى مستوى لزوج 13 نوفمبر BTC یتزامن مع کسر زوج الدولار الأمریکی، ولدینا اختراق واضح من المثلث المتماثل الشهری بدعم من الحجم. لقد حددنا أیضًا قناة محتملة یمکن استخدامها لتتبع التحرک صعودًا. أخیرًا، عند العودة إلى الرسم البیانی الشهری، نرى أن امتدادات فیبوناتشی تتوافق تمامًا مع کل قمة دورة، وتکتمل عند أعلى مستوى على الإطلاق. هل یمکنک أن تقول التقاء؟ إنه مثالی للغایة. یجب أن یکون هذا الرسم البیانی مع الرسم البیانی السابق قد جعلک تصرخ الآن بأن هذا واضح. شکرًا لک على القراءة وکن هناک! هذا لأغراض إعلامیة فقط ولیس اقتراحًا أو توصیة بشراء أو بیع أی أصل أو غیر ذلک. أنت مسؤول عن قراراتک الخاصة بغض النظر عن مصدر الحصول على المعلومات. لا تستثمر أبدًا إذا لم یکن بوسعک تحمل تکالیفه واعتبر کل الاستثمارات مقامرة.- Shadowfigure

To start our TA here let's look at the Weekly Chart. We can see on first look that Solana is at it's all time high for the first time since November 2021 (3 years). It hit a low of $8 in December 2022 (man don't we all feel dumb!?) 🙂Zooming in to the Daily Chart, we take a look at the 200 day MA. I bring this up now as you'll find me look at it a lot. My hypothesis (which I may have learned elsewhere), is if an asset (especially a crypto asset) is above it's 200-day Moving Average (meaning the current price is higher than the average of the last 200 days), then we are in a Bull Market. The opposite is also true. If we spend significant time below the 200-day and we bounce off of it, we are in a Bear Market. As seen on the chart. What is critical when we cross the line, is that when we retest it, we bounce. You don't want to use this as an immediate rule, as in many cases you can find assets cross below their 200-day. If you are confident in market conditions, this can be an optimal buying or selling opportunity depending on your bet (Buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market).Zooming in further on the chart, we see the most recent consolidation phase for Solana. It is critical when analyzing charts to recognize the different shapes and be able to draw them and understand what they could mean. This is not a foolproof strategy, but a highly probable hypothesis that you can use to try to predict the next move. Use other signals and indicators to test your hypothesis to potentially increase its likelihood, or invalidate it. We are being purely objective. This pattern is clearly a Bullish Pennant Pattern which can be found: reddit.com/media?url=i.redd.it/8nrgx1pmbot51.jpgZooming in even further on the 1 hour chart we note that Solana just peaked over the previous all-time high (ATH) of $260.00 and hit $264.63. It was rejected off of that level, leading to fear. Many people bought the top thinking it would just blast off. Things don't work that way. ATH is a strong resistance and requires significant effort and reason to beat, especially for a top 10 Market Cap coin. So we look at a few indicators to understand what could happen next without making any rash decisions.The first thing I notice is the significant BUY VOLUME as noted by the tall green bars at the bottom of the chart.Secondly, we have a Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern that has printed and now broken out with strong buy volume confirmation.Third, it just so happened that on December 3rd, 2024, the NYSE and Grayscale filed for a Solana ETF with the SEC.Notice how we use multiple data points to help support our hypothesis for a continued uptrend. Knowing the current bullish environment, and what we've seen so far. The most likely scenario is a continued uptrend and a breakout from the ATH. Once the ETF is approved and on the market, institiutional buying could lead to parabolic moves.This is not investment advice. This is objective analysis. Do what you will with the shared data points and please go confirm them for yourself. 🙂It doesn't stop there. One of the best indicators which is usually overlooked by newer traders is the SOL/BTC pairing. For all cryptos, there is a BTC pairing because BTC is the reserve currency. If we look at the BTC chart on the Daily time scale, we immediately notice the Symmetrical Triangle that has been forming since November of 2023, tightening up to February of 2025.Given all we know, and Bitcoins recent resurgence and ATH nearly touching 100k, this may be another data point that helps support our hypothesis of a continued uptrend in the price of Solana over time. HOWEVER, the symmetrical triangle has an equal chance of going up or down, so we can only be sure a significant move against BTC is imminent, but not the direction.With this in mind, we need to consider the scenarios where the BTC pairing could go up or down as it is more dynamic than a standard BTC pairing. For example, if BTC were to move up, while SOL remained the same, the BTC pairing would go down, even if the USD value did not change. The opposite is also true.Three things give me a more likely BEAR case for SOL vs BTC:1. The fib extension has maxed out to the 4.236 level, BUT it also has corrected (slightly), so if this is all that it will correct, the BULL case is actually stronger should it make an upward move.2. If the move is upward, it won't be without resistance. The top line shows the ATH in September 2021. This will be met with resistance before it can make a move up and find new highs.3. Zooming out shows an "A-B" of what would usually be an "A-B-C" correction, if you follow Elliot Wave Theory (which I do). This makes me concerned that a massive move down is likely. Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) is generally useful but I do find it is not 100% foolproof and should only be a data point. Still, the C-wave correction is very common and may lead us back to the support line shown.Finally, if you remember from above the 200-day MA, this also exists on the BTC pairing. In just the last few days we had a drop in the price of SOL. This drop went below the 200-day MA. This could have been scary for many who track the MA, if they didn't look for the other signs.Transparently, I bought here. tripled down actually. Started when it touched the line, and then kept buying until I couldn't. I didn't get the bottom of the move, but I tracked a support line at $210 USD which is where I'd consider stopping out of my position if it went lower than that.For now, we look at this move below the BTC 200-day and notice the following:1, A Falling Wedge pattern which you saw in a previously above.2. The lower white line is also the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle shown above.3. The attempted dump led to a massive bounce with significant green volume candles, pushing it back over the BTC 200-day in just a few hours. This was helped by the ETF announcement (but do you believe in coincidences?) - I love seeing this confluence with reality and wonder if it is intentional.One could argue that lower line below the 200-day was a prime buying opportunity IF the move is upward from here, which the fundamentals and multiple analysis data points I've shared here support. THIS WAS A FAKE OUT THEN BREAK OUT. But will it continue? We are breaking over the 200 day MA again WITH VOLUME which is an excellent sign.So what do you do if you want to get a piece of the action and limit your risk at the same time? Don't just go all in on Solana, because risk is REAL in the markets no matter how much analysis we do. A good strategy is to get a small position, and then try to cost average as the price declines.We saw a retrace of the move, and in beautiful CONFLUENCE, we see a bounce off of the 618 retracement at the exact same line as the falling wedge. Will that hold? Will we go lower? Or is it up from here? Only time can tell... MANAGE YOUR RISK.Thanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling.- ShadowfigureFriends, an update for you on this idea. As we've seen in the last couple of days, alts have seen a correction of around 20% or more. SOL however, has remained resilient, but risk exists in the broader market at the moment as we see both BTC and XRP set the trends. As I always talk about, we should manage risk and trust our charts. If we stray from the plan, we risk serious losses which should be avoided at all costs, including the cost of lost gains. Full transparency, I stopped out of less than half of my position when we breached the $210 critical support. We breached it 3 times, BUT here's the critical point: We had NO DAILY CANDLES CLOSE below the $210 critical support. Until this is the case, I remain in half of my position and would look for a break of the ATH with volume and a successful bounce to enter a larger position. This strategy takes discipline and the willingness to limit potential gains in favor of taking significant risk off the table. Notice that we have actually retraced and bounced off the tip of the downward wedge which is a very common scenario that fakes out inexperienced traders, whether it's the retrace of a bullish falling wedge or bearish rising wedge. This view delivers an argument for the bull case while being very aware of the potential bearish reversal of trend in the broader market. Sticking to rules that are made in advance is your antidote to making mistakes that can hurt you. Conclusion: The BULL CASE remains until we daily close below the critical support. Final thoughts: In any scenario, I remain BULLISH ON SOLANA long-term, and believe it will unseat ETH in the next year given its excellent user experience, quick and cheap transactions, and the preference of developers to build on Solana instead of Ethereum. We still love Ethereum and everything it has done, but it remains limited in scalability and expensive to use. Therefore when you look at the case that ETH has a market cap of 440M today, while Solana is 104M, a 4x gain on Solana's price is not out of the question longer term. Want to know what happens next? Give me a follow and get notified about my next new post. I can only update this idea once according to TradingView rules, so the next update will be a new chart if we breach $210 to go lower (daily close required), or if we breach the ATH at $264. This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling. - Shadowfigure

To start our TA here let's look at the Weekly Chart. We can see on first look that Solana is at it's all time high for the first time since November 2021 (3 years). It hit a low of $8 in December 2022 (man don't we all feel dumb!?) 🙂Zooming in to the Daily Chart, we take a look at the 200 day MA. I bring this up now as you'll find me look at it a lot. My hypothesis (which I may have learned elsewhere), is if an asset (especially a crypto asset) is above it's 200-day Moving Average (meaning the current price is higher than the average of the last 200 days), then we are in a Bull Market. The opposite is also true. If we spend significant time below the 200-day and we bounce off of it, we are in a Bear Market. As seen on the chart. What is critical when we cross the line, is that when we retest it, we bounce. You don't want to use this as an immediate rule, as in many cases you can find assets cross below their 200-day. If you are confident in market conditions, this can be an optimal buying or selling opportunity depending on your bet (Buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market).Zooming in further on the chart, we see the most recent consolidation phase for Solana. It is critical when analyzing charts to recognize the different shapes and be able to draw them and understand what they could mean. This is not a foolproof strategy, but a highly probable hypothesis that you can use to try to predict the next move. Use other signals and indicators to test your hypothesis to potentially increase its likelihood, or invalidate it. We are being purely objective. This pattern is clearly a Bullish Pennant Pattern which can be found: reddit.com/media?url=i.redd.it/8nrgx1pmbot51.jpgZooming in even further on the 1 hour chart we note that Solana just peaked over the previous all-time high (ATH) of $260.00 and hit $264.63. It was rejected off of that level, leading to fear. Many people bought the top thinking it would just blast off. Things don't work that way. ATH is a strong resistance and requires significant effort and reason to beat, especially for a top 10 Market Cap coin. So we look at a few indicators to understand what could happen next without making any rash decisions.The first thing I notice is the significant BUY VOLUME as noted by the tall green bars at the bottom of the chart.Secondly, we have a Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern that has printed and now broken out with strong buy volume confirmation.Third, it just so happened that on December 3rd, 2024, the NYSE and Grayscale filed for a Solana ETF with the SEC.Notice how we use multiple data points to help support our hypothesis for a continued uptrend. Knowing the current bullish environment, and what we've seen so far. The most likely scenario is a continued uptrend and a breakout from the ATH. Once the ETF is approved and on the market, institiutional buying could lead to parabolic moves.This is not investment advice. This is objective analysis. Do what you will with the shared data points and please go confirm them for yourself. 🙂It doesn't stop there. One of the best indicators which is usually overlooked by newer traders is the SOL/BTC pairing. For all cryptos, there is a BTC pairing because BTC is the reserve currency. If we look at the BTC chart on the Daily time scale, we immediately notice the Symmetrical Triangle that has been forming since November of 2023, tightening up to February of 2025.Given all we know, and Bitcoins recent resurgence and ATH nearly touching 100k, this may be another data point that helps support our hypothesis of a continued uptrend in the price of Solana over time. HOWEVER, the symmetrical triangle has an equal chance of going up or down, so we can only be sure a significant move against BTC is imminent, but not the direction.With this in mind, we need to consider the scenarios where the BTC pairing could go up or down as it is more dynamic than a standard BTC pairing. For example, if BTC were to move up, while SOL remained the same, the BTC pairing would go down, even if the USD value did not change. The opposite is also true.Three things give me a more likely BEAR case for SOL vs BTC:1. The fib extension has maxed out to the 4.236 level, BUT it also has corrected (slightly), so if this is all that it will correct, the BULL case is actually stronger should it make an upward move.2. If the move is upward, it won't be without resistance. The top line shows the ATH in September 2021. This will be met with resistance before it can make a move up and find new highs.3. Zooming out shows an "A-B" of what would usually be an "A-B-C" correction, if you follow Elliot Wave Theory (which I do). This makes me concerned that a massive move down is likely. Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) is generally useful but I do find it is not 100% foolproof and should only be a data point. Still, the C-wave correction is very common and may lead us back to the support line shown.Finally, if you remember from above the 200-day MA, this also exists on the BTC pairing. In just the last few days we had a drop in the price of SOL. This drop went below the 200-day MA. This could have been scary for many who track the MA, if they didn't look for the other signs.Transparently, I bought here. tripled down actually. Started when it touched the line, and then kept buying until I couldn't. I didn't get the bottom of the move, but I tracked a support line at $210 USD which is where I'd consider stopping out of my position if it went lower than that.For now, we look at this move below the BTC 200-day and notice the following:1, A Falling Wedge pattern which you saw in a previously above.2. The lower white line is also the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle shown above.3. The attempted dump led to a massive bounce with significant green volume candles, pushing it back over the BTC 200-day in just a few hours. This was helped by the ETF announcement (but do you believe in coincidences?) - I love seeing this confluence with reality and wonder if it is intentional.One could argue that lower line below the 200-day was a prime buying opportunity IF the move is upward from here, which the fundamentals and multiple analysis data points I've shared here support. THIS WAS A FAKE OUT THEN BREAK OUT. But will it continue? We are breaking over the 200 day MA again WITH VOLUME which is an excellent sign.So what do you do if you want to get a piece of the action and limit your risk at the same time? Don't just go all in on Solana, because risk is REAL in the markets no matter how much analysis we do. A good strategy is to get a small position, and then try to cost average as the price declines.We saw a retrace of the move, and in beautiful CONFLUENCE, we see a bounce off of the 618 retracement at the exact same line as the falling wedge. Will that hold? Will we go lower? Or is it up from here? Only time can tell... MANAGE YOUR RISK.Thanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling.- Shadowfigure

To start our TA here let's look at the Weekly Chart. We can see on first look that Solana is at it's all time high for the first time since November 2021 (3 years). It hit a low of $8 in December 2022 (man don't we all feel dumb!?) 🙂Zooming in to the Daily Chart, we take a look at the 200 day MA. I bring this up now as you'll find me look at it a lot. My hypothesis (which I may have learned elsewhere), is if an asset (especially a crypto asset) is above it's 200-day Moving Average (meaning the current price is higher than the average of the last 200 days), then we are in a Bull Market. The opposite is also true. If we spend significant time below the 200-day and we bounce off of it, we are in a Bear Market. As seen on the chart. What is critical when we cross the line, is that when we retest it, we bounce. You don't want to use this as an immediate rule, as in many cases you can find assets cross below their 200-day. If you are confident in market conditions, this can be an optimal buying or selling opportunity depending on your bet (Buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market).Zooming in further on the chart, we see the most recent consolidation phase for Solana. It is critical when analyzing charts to recognize the different shapes and be able to draw them and understand what they could mean. This is not a foolproof strategy, but a highly probable hypothesis that you can use to try to predict the next move. Use other signals and indicators to test your hypothesis to potentially increase its likelihood, or invalidate it. We are being purely objective. This pattern is clearly a Bullish Pennant Pattern which can be found: reddit.com/media?url=https://i.redd.it/8nrgx1pmbot51.jpgZooming in even further on the 1 hour chart we note that Solana just peaked over the previous all-time high (ATH) of $260.00 and hit $264.63. It was rejected off of that level, leading to fear. Many people bought the top thinking it would just blast off. Things don't work that way. ATH is a strong resistance and requires significant effort and reason to beat, especially for a top 10 Market Cap coin. So we look at a few indicators to understand what could happen next without making any rash decisions. The first thing I notice is the significant BUY VOLUME as noted by the tall green bars at the bottom of the chart.Secondly, we have a Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern that has printed and now broken out with strong buy volume confirmation. Third, it just so happened that on December 3rd, 2024, the NYSE and Grayscale filed for a Solana ETF with the SEC.Notice how we use multiple data points to help support our hypothesis for a continued uptrend. Knowing the current bullish environment, and what we've seen so far. The most likely scenario is a continued uptrend and a breakout from the ATH. Once the ETF is approved and on the market, institiutional buying could lead to parabolic moves. This is not investment advice. This is objective analysis. Do what you will with the shared data points and please go confirm them for yourself. 🙂It doesn't stop there. One of the best indicators which is usually overlooked by newer traders is the SOL/BTC pairing. For all cryptos, there is a BTC pairing because BTC is the reserve currency. If we look at the BTC chart on the Daily time scale, we immediately notice the Symmetrical Triangle that has been forming since November of 2023, tightening up to February of 2025. Given all we know, and Bitcoins recent resurgence and ATH nearly touching 100k, this may be another data point that helps support our hypothesis of a continued uptrend in the price of Solana over time. HOWEVER, the symmetrical triangle has an equal chance of going up or down, so we can only be sure a significant move against BTC is imminent, but not the direction. With this in mind, we need to consider the scenarios where the BTC pairing could go up or down as it is more dynamic than a standard BTC pairing. For example, if BTC were to move up, while SOL remained the same, the BTC pairing would go down, even if the USD value did not change. The opposite is also true. Three things give me a more likely BEAR case for SOL vs BTC: 1. The fib extension has maxed out to the 4.236 level, BUT it also has corrected (slightly), so if this is all that it will correct, the BULL case is actually stronger should it make an upward move.2. If the move is upward, it won't be without resistance. The top line shows the ATH in September 2021. This will be met with resistance before it can make a move up and find new highs.3. Zooming out shows an "A-B" of what would usually be an "A-B-C" correction, if you follow Elliot Wave Theory (which I do). This makes me concerned that a massive move down is likely. Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) is generally useful but I do find it is not 100% foolproof and should only be a data point. Still, the C-wave correction is very common and may lead us back to the support line shown.Finally, if you remember from above the 200-day MA, this also exists on the BTC pairing. In just the last few days we had a drop in the price of SOL. This drop went below the 200-day MA. This could have been scary for many who track the MA, if they didn't look for the other signs. Transparently, I bought here. tripled down actually. Started when it touched the line, and then kept buying until I couldn't. I didn't get the bottom of the move, but I tracked a support line at $210 USD which is where I'd consider stopping out of my position if it went lower than that.For now, we look at this move below the BTC 200-day and notice the following:1, A Falling Wedge pattern which you saw in a previously above.2. The lower white line is also the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle shown above.3. The attempted dump led to a massive bounce with significant green volume candles, pushing it back over the BTC 200-day in just a few hours. This was helped by the ETF announcement (but do you believe in coincidences?) - I love seeing this confluence with reality and wonder if it is intentional.One could argue that lower line below the 200-day was a prime buying opportunity IF the move is upward from here, which the fundamentals and multiple analysis data points I've shared here support. THIS WAS A FAKE OUT THEN BREAK OUT. But will it continue? We are breaking over the 200 day MA again WITH VOLUME which is an excellent sign.So what do you do if you want to get a piece of the action and limit your risk at the same time? Don't just go all in on Solana, because risk is REAL in the markets no matter how much analysis we do. A good strategy is to get a small position, and then try to cost average as the price declines. We saw a retrace of the move, and in beautiful CONFLUENCE, we see a bounce off of the 618 retracement at the exact same line as the falling wedge. Will that hold? Will we go lower? Or is it up from here? Only time can tell... MANAGE YOUR RISK.If you liked this, please let me know! If you have a request for a specific coin or asset, please consider donating some SOL: DXA8JQ5U2GgYcPB8T4UJN8RHgqbxtkL4o9CTBgP7CCbAThanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling. - Shadowfigure