14.05.2025 tarihinde sembol BTC hakkında Teknik Swissquote analizi

Introduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded by over 40% since the beginning of April, following a successful pull-back from its previous all-time high. This successful chartist pull-back (see the first chart below, which shows Japanese candlesticks in weekly BTC/USD data) is part of bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the last Halving, in April 2024. Remember that it is this four-year Halving process that structures bitcoin's 4-year cycle. This 4-year cycle is due to end (if history repeats itself) at the end of 2025.In this new analysis published in the columns of TradingView, we present two charts which argue in favour of a new all-time high for BTC in June. Of course, we're only talking about chart probabilities here. 1) The positive correlation between bitcoin's price and global M2 liquidity is an argument in favour of a new all-time high in June.The second chart below highlights the juxtaposition of two trends: the bitcoin price trend and the global money supply trend. We've already shown you the global money supply curve (see our analysis history from the Swissquote profile on TradingView), which is the sum of the national M2 liquidity of the world's major economies. The M2 monetary aggregate represents current accounts and liquid savings accounts.It has been mathematically demonstrated that there is a positive correlation, with a time lag of around 12 weeks, between global liquidity trends and bitcoin price trends. Given that global liquidity has already set an all-time record, then if and only if the positive correlation continues, there is an interesting probability that bitcoin will also set a new all-time record in June. 2) The positive correlation between the BTC bull cycle linked to halving 2024 and the BTC bull cycle linked to halving 2016 is a second argument in favour of a new all-time record in June.The third chart below shows a comparison of cycles. The BTC bullish cycles linked to the halving years 2016, 2020 and 2024 are compared. Statistics tell us that the most relevant positive correlation exists between the cycles of 2016 and 2024, 2024 being our current cycle. Should this correlation also continue, then a new all-time high for BTC in June is likely. Conclusion: Technical analysis is only a probability model and by no means an exact science. As a result, you should always manage your financial risk, and be aware that even if a technical scenario is well argued, price action can turn it on its head. This bullish technical argument is therefore conditional on the preservation of the $90K/$92 major support and would only be active in the event of a bullish technical break of the resistance at $109,000.DISCLAIMER:This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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