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The BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratios are defending their major bullish trendlines, and as long as these supports hold, there remains a possibility that the Bitcoin bull cycle linked to the 2024 halving is not yet over. Since the October 6th peak at US$126,000, Bitcoin’s price has been evolving in a consolidation phase that raises questions: is this a simple pause within a broader bullish cycle, or does it mark the end of the uptrend that began in late 2022 and was tied to the spring 2024 halving? To answer this, it is useful to move away from Bitcoin’s nominal price and instead examine its relative performance ratios against other major asset classes. The three main barometers — BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 — are currently near their major bullish trendlines, established from the late-2022 lows. These supports, tested several times over the past eighteen months, structure Bitcoin’s relative dynamics against gold, U.S. equities, and the technology sector. Their preservation is therefore crucial. As long as these three ratios remain above their ascending trendlines, the market structure remains technically bullish in terms of long-term trend. In other words, the underlying move in favor of Bitcoin, which began after the 2022 crash, has not yet been invalidated. The pullback observed since early October could therefore be interpreted as a cyclical support test, or even as an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. Conversely, a clear and confirmed break of these three supports simultaneously would signal a regime shift — indicating that Bitcoin has stopped outperforming gold and equity indices, opening the door to a prolonged phase of relative underperformance, typical of end-of-cycle behavior. For now, however, buyers are still defending the key levels. The maintenance of the BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratios above their bullish trendlines means that, technically, Bitcoin’s bull cycle remains alive. As long as these supports hold, there remains a credible probability that the October 6th peak at $126,000 is not the final top. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

Driven by an euphoric phase, the S&P 500 has approached 7,000 points, nearing its 2000 valuation record, with six consecutive months of gains without retracement. The key question for investors is now clear: has the Federal Reserve provided enough justification for this confidence, or does Jerome Powell’s caution mark the beginning of the end of this euphoric phase? 1) A Fed slowing the pace without complacency On Wednesday, October 29, the Fed announced another 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate into the 3.75%–4.00% range. This is the second consecutive reduction, aimed at countering the labor market slowdown. However, the FOMC vote revealed strong internal divisions: one member wanted a deeper cut, another preferred no change. This reflects the delicate balance between supporting employment and avoiding renewed inflationary pressure. Another key signal: the Fed decided to pause its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) starting December 1st, in order to preserve financial system liquidity, as credit markets show early signs of stress. Powell clarified that this pause does not imply a lasting return to an expansionary stance. Finally, Powell cooled expectations for another rate cut in December, stating that “nothing is guaranteed.” Money markets now price roughly a 70% chance of a hold in December, down from nearly 90% odds of a cut before the meeting. 2) Between monetary realism and market excess The Fed is not ruling out further easing, but it refuses to fuel a bullish rally in the S&P 500 that is now considered excessive relative to fundamentals. Current valuations rely heavily on expectations of continued rate cuts. If that narrative weakens, the likelihood of a technical correction in the S&P 500 rises. At this stage, however, the index has not yet signaled a reversal. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

Has Bitcoin entered a bear market since its all-time high of $126,000 on Monday, October 6? This is the key question among crypto analysts, especially after the flash crash of altcoins during the Friday, October 10 trading session. From a historical and cyclical perspective, we are indeed approaching the end of the post-halving year — the period during which Bitcoin has typically marked its final cycle top. But can we state with certainty that October 6, 2025 marked the final high? 1) The Current Bitcoin Cycle (Linked to the 2024 Halving) Is Now Longer Than the Previous One but Could Extend Until the End of November The current Bitcoin cycle, initiated after the April 2024 halving, may already have reached maturity. According to correlation data from previous cycles, it has surpassed the duration of the 2020 cycle, which peaked roughly 546 days after its halving. The present cycle has now reached 550 days, suggesting that the market top may have already been reached or could be imminent. However, analyzing the average duration of past cycles also points to late November 2025 as a plausible timeframe for the end of this bull cycle. Two main scenarios therefore coexist: •Either the market top has already been recorded in early October, •Or a final expansion phase could continue until late November 2025, making this cycle as long as the 2016 halving cycle when measured from peak to peak. 2) Bitcoin Bear Market: The Key Technical Pivot Lies at $100–102K On the monthly chart, the $100,000–$102,000 zone stands out as a critical threshold. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact, and the market can still aim for new highs. However, a decisive break below $100,000 would confirm a major trend reversal, marking the start of a multi-month bear market. This technical level therefore acts as the dividing line between the end of the bull cycle and the beginning of an extended corrective phase — historically averaging 13 months in duration. 3) Global M2 Liquidity and Gold as Leading Indicators Suggest a Potential Bullish November If Bitcoin regains its historical correlation with global M2 liquidity, a bullish rebound could take shape as early as November. Historically, M2 money supply growth has preceded or accompanied Bitcoin’s expansion phases, reflecting a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets. Recent signs of monetary easing and financial market stabilization further support this possibility. If this macro trend persists, Bitcoin could experience a strong upward movement in November, supported by improving global liquidity conditions. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The recent shutdown of the U.S. government has triggered a domino effect on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Due to the temporary closure of several federal agencies — notably the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — a series of crucial statistics have been delayed, making it more difficult to assess the real-time economic situation of the United States. A Severely Disrupted Economic Calendar From early October, several major releases were postponed. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for October 3 was the first casualty and the CPI and PPI inflation indicators on October 15 and 16. These consecutive delays have disoriented financial markets, depriving them of the statistical benchmarks essential to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s decisions. As a result, visibility on inflation, employment, and consumption trends has been significantly reduced, fueling volatility in U.S. equity markets. The Fed in the Dark This disrupted schedule complicates the Fed’s task ahead of its October 29 monetary policy decision, followed by the PCE inflation release on October 31. Without fresh data, FOMC members will have to rely on partial or outdated information to decide on the path of interest rates. This lack of reliable data could lead the institution to adopt a more cautious stance, postponing any major adjustment to its monetary policy. Cascading Effects in the Coming Months — Unless the Shutdown Ends in October The November 7 NFP report and Supreme Court hearings on tariff policies, scheduled for the same week, may also be affected if the shutdown continues. Similarly, November inflation data (CPI, PPI, and PCE) could face further delays, undermining the accuracy of economic forecasts for year-end. Finally, the December releases — notably the December 5 NFP report and the December 10 Fed meeting — could mark a return to calendar normality, provided the affected agencies manage to catch up on lost time. In short, the sooner this shutdown episode ends, the faster the overall publication of macroeconomic figures will return to normal. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

On Friday, October 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a true shockwave, marked by a massive liquidation of long positions exceeding $19 billion. This violent jolt was triggered by the sudden announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S. President, sparking widespread panic across all risk assets. In the wake of this decision, Bitcoin lost more than 10% within hours, dragging down all altcoins — some of which fell by as much as 80% — before regaining some balance by the end of the session. Yet, despite the brutality of the move, Bitcoin’s underlying trend remains bullish, as no major support has been broken, and we are still at the beginning of the quarter that is historically the most favorable for BTC price appreciation. In other words, this spectacular correction appears more like a technical flush than a lasting reversal of Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend. 1) The underlying trend of Bitcoin remains bullish as long as the major technical support at $106K–$109K holds The violent rejection seen during the Friday, October 10 session confirmed the strength of the major resistance represented by the trendline connecting the key peaks since the end-of-2017 cycle top. This major resistance has been capping the market since mid-July and could potentially mark the start of a new bear market. However, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. Rejection under a major resistance is one thing; breaking a major support is another. As long as the $106K–$109K support zone holds, the underlying bullish trend remains intact and a bear market has not yet begun. 2) Will the bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving end this week, on Saturday, October 18? From a cyclical perspective, the week of Monday, October 13, deserves close attention. If the bullish cycle were to end on Saturday, October 18, the duration of the current cycle would exactly match that of the previous one — the 2020 halving cycle, which peaked in November 2021. We can therefore say that this week is decisive in determining whether Bitcoin has already entered a new bear market. 3) The cycle could end by late November 2025 if Bitcoin aligns with the average duration of the three previous cycles There is still the possibility that the cycle linked to the 2024 halving could extend until the end of November 2025. If so, this cycle would last as long as the one tied to the 2016 halving (in terms of peak-to-peak duration) and would perfectly align with the average calendar duration of the past three cycles. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The “debasement trade” has emerged as one of the key market themes: a strategy based on the loss of value of fiat currencies amid unlimited monetary creation, rising public debt, and the erosion of purchasing power. In this context, investors have turned to so-called “tangible” assets—gold and silver—viewed as safe havens against monetary dilution. But while this narrative has dominated much of the year, several fundamentals could gradually bring it to an end by late 2025. First, the end of the U.S. government shutdown would restore confidence in American fiscal management and reduce the political risk premium. In the same vein, clearer fiscal consolidation and a return to minimum budget discipline could signal that governments are regaining control over the trajectory of deficits and debt. This mere shift in perception could be enough to ease fears of U.S. dollar “debasement.” At the same time, if central banks maintain or raise real interest rates, fiat currencies would regain competitiveness against non-productive assets. Positive real yields restore the value of cash and reduce the appeal of inflation hedges. This is even more true if inflation expectations decline: less fear of price surges means less need to seek protection through gold or other precious metals. A stable or stronger dollar would reinforce this dynamic—it is, in fact, the most important factor signaling the end of the debasement trade. Historically, a firm greenback weighs on precious metals while signaling renewed confidence in monetary stability. At the same time, a better global growth environment could redirect capital toward risk assets at the expense of “hard assets.” Another key element is the tightening of liquidity conditions. Less money in circulation and less speculative excess would dry up flows into safe-haven assets. Similarly, a geopolitical de-escalation would reduce demand for protective values. If, in parallel, institutions reallocate toward bonds—attracted by once again appealing yields—that would mark the end of the great flight from the fiat system. Finally, the real turning point will come with the return of political and monetary credibility. When markets once again perceive authorities as capable of managing debt, inflation, and growth without resorting to the printing press, the engine of the debasement trade will naturally shut down. Once confidence is restored, the risk premium on tangible assets will decline, placing the dollar, real yields, and macroeconomic discipline back at the center of the game. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The sudden resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a shockwave across global financial markets last Friday, hitting the S&P 500 index hard. Beijing’s announcement of new export controls on rare earths, followed by Donald Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%, has revived the specter of a full-scale trade war. This escalation caused a sharp technical correction in the U.S. index, which just experienced its worst session in six months. Although negotiations could still lead to an agreement by the end of October between China and the U.S., investors fear a direct impact on the margins of major industrial and tech companies—already weakened by rising import costs and record-high valuations. So, what are the technical damages on the S&P 500 from this renewed trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies? 1) The S&P 500 is rejecting from the upper boundary of its long-term bullish channel During the trading session on Tuesday, September 30, I shared a technical update on the S&P 500 questioning whether an annual high had been reached. The first chart below links to that analysis: The technical damage from the sharp decline on Friday, October 10, remains limited for now, as no major support levels have been broken. However, the S&P 500 has clearly rejected from the upper boundary of the long-term bullish channel in place since 2020 — an area that could correspond to the completion of wave 5 according to Elliott Wave analysis. For the start of this week, the 50-day moving average must be closely monitored, as its breakdown last February marked the beginning of the March/April correction tied to the trade war. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the S&P 500: 2) The Russell 2000 index rejects below its all-time high Looking at market breadth, another notable technical weakness appears: the bearish rejection of the Russell 2000 index below its record high of 2,460 points. A rejection under resistance is one thing, but the key now is to avoid breaking support—particularly the 2,360-point level. 3) This technical rejection occurs at very high valuation levels The current valuation of the S&P 500 is historically elevated, near levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble. The Shiller P/E ratio is approaching 40, signaling a pronounced overvaluation of U.S. equities. The 12-month forward P/E exceeds 30, well above its long-term average, while the Buffett indicator (market capitalization to GDP) is above 200%, an all-time record. Such an imbalance heightens the risk of a technical correction if interest rates rise or corporate earnings weaken due to the trade war. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

In 2025, the best-performing assets are not tech stocks or sovereign bonds, but gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. This striking fact reflects a much deeper trend: the powerful comeback of the “debasement trade” — the bet on the devaluation of major currencies. Amid soaring public deficits, record debt levels, and increasingly accommodative monetary policies, more and more investors are questioning the ability of leading economies to preserve the value of their money. The term “debasement” originates from the era when monarchs reduced the precious metal content of their coins — an early way to create money at the expense of those who held it. Today, the mechanism is different, but the logic remains the same: governments finance their spending through debt, which central banks ultimately absorb indirectly. The result is expanding money supply, eroding purchasing power, and waning confidence. In this environment, a trade has emerged — selling or avoiding fiat currencies in favor of real and scarce assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum benefit from their algorithmic scarcity; gold and silver, from their historic role as stores of value. This movement is not merely defensive; it signals a paradigm shift. Investors are seeking assets uncorrelated with sovereign debt — instruments that can preserve wealth in a world of ever-expanding public balance sheets. In other words, it is less about speculation and more about insurance against monetary erosion. In the short term, this “debasement trade” supports precious metals and cryptocurrencies. But in the medium term, it conveys a more troubling message: a structural loss of confidence in fiat money. As long as governments postpone fiscal adjustments, demand for these alternative assets is likely to remain strong. Ultimately, 2025 confirms a truth many preferred to ignore: when money weakens, investors turn to what cannot be printed. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

While the debate over the timing of the end of the bullish cycle continues, Ether (ETH) has reached the 26th position worldwide ($540 billion USD) in the ranking of global market capitalizations across all asset classes. For comparison, gold ranks first at $27 trillion USD, and Bitcoin is in 7th place with $2.45 trillion USD. Regarding Bitcoin’s price and the possible dates for the end of the bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving, I invite you to click on the chart below. You’ll see that the end-of-cycle window lies between October 18 and November 20. But let’s return to the focus of this analysis: Ethereum — specifically the ETH/USD price and a realistic price target for this cycle, taking into account its positive correlation with Bitcoin. In this article, I will rely on chart analysis using weekly and daily timeframes, applying classical charting tools, Elliott Waves, and Fibonacci extension ratios. 1) According to the medium-term chart (Japanese candlesticks, weekly data), the underlying trend remains bullish above the $3,800 support. The chart below shows that ETH/USD’s long-term trend remains bullish as long as the market price holds above a large triangular pattern that broke upward this summer. The primary trend is therefore bullish above the $3,800 support on a weekly closing basis. The first chart below shows ETH/USD weekly Japanese candlesticks: 2) According to Elliott Wave analysis, the final end-of-cycle target could be $6,000 by late 2025. On this Ethereum (ETH/USD) chart, Elliott Wave analysis shows a five-phase bullish structure, with Wave 5 yet to come. After the Wave 4 correction, the market appears to have found a bottom around $3,800 — an area corresponding to the 0.382 retracement of Wave 3. The current recovery suggests the potential start of the fifth impulsive wave. The theoretical target for Wave 5 is around $6,000, corresponding to a 0.618 Fibonacci extension from the bottom of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3, projected from Wave 4. This level also aligns with a major psychological zone and a classic target for the end of a full bullish cycle. As long as the price stays above $3,800, this remains the most likely technical scenario. The second chart below shows ETH/USD daily Japanese candlesticks: DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The U.S. presidential cycle is a cyclical approach to the stock market suggesting that S&P 500 performance tends to follow a recurring pattern over the four years of a presidential term. This cycle reflects the relationship between political decisions, fiscal and monetary policy, and investor psychology. Historically, the first year of the term (post-election) is marked by economic and fiscal adjustments, often accompanied by moderate gains. The second year, known as the “midterm year,” is usually more hesitant: markets tend to be volatile amid political uncertainty and potential unpopular reforms. This second year of the presidential cycle is typically the weakest of the four and the most prone to a significant S&P 500 consolidation — corresponding in our case to the year 2026. In contrast, the third year of the term almost always stands out as the most favorable for equities, as the administration seeks to boost growth ahead of the next election campaign, often through more accommodative fiscal or monetary measures. Finally, the fourth (election) year tends to remain positive on average, although performance often flattens as electoral uncertainty increases. From this perspective, 2026 will mark the second year of Donald Trump’s presidential cycle — traditionally the most fragile for equity markets. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has recently reached major resistance zones near its historical highs after a strong post-election rally. Several momentum indicators now show signs of exhaustion, while Shiller’s P/E ratio stands at historically elevated levels, indicating stretched valuations. In this context, it is plausible that 2026 will bring a phase of consolidation for the S&P 500, or even a more pronounced correction. Institutional investors may adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting greater clarity on fiscal trajectories, Federal Reserve rate policy, and the impact of new government measures. This cooling phase would be natural after several years of sustained growth and could form a healthy foundation for the next bullish impulse, traditionally observed ahead of the pre-election year — 2027. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.