wbburgin

BTCUSD: Needs Breakout Before Pump Today's relief rally to $28,500 needs confirmation on both sides before we can see the broader picture. BTCUSD is currently making lower highs in a distinctive consolidation pattern, with tremendous support at $26,600 and multiple (failed) attempts to create higher highs. Here are some of my observations for both the bulls and the bears and I'll leave it for you guys to discuss in the comments. For the Bears: We need a lower high on the RSI before we can label this as a rejection off the red resistance line. A fall below $26,600 would make this rally a classic head and shoulders pattern, in which the price could potentially fall through the liquidity zone after its parabolic rise earlier this year. For the Bulls: The RSI has consistently been making higher lows since March 10th. This pattern is similar to the higher lows pattern that preceded January's liquidity pump after the FTX fallout, where BTCUSD rapidly rose up to meet the pre-fallout price levels. We would need a strong break through the red resistance line and a higher high to confirm that a macro rally has actually begun. My verdict: if a pump to $29,000 or $30,000 is coming, I don't think it is in today's rally. The RSI has risen too quickly when compared to previous macro rallies, and the red structural resistance hasn't been broken through. Rather, I believe today was an influx of capital because a) the opening on Hong Kong / China to crypto once again and b) the tentative debt ceiling agreement reached by the US Congress. Be sure to keep an eye on the red resistance line, and also the volume profile at about 29K. I will enter long or enter short depending on future price action and confirmation, but for now I am neutral.

Bitcoin 1 Hour: Exact Same Downslope Bitcoin's one-hour trend is showing the exact same downslope (-45 degrees) as the chart demonstrated mid-April. This may indicate more trying times to come, at least in the short term. The make-or-break is still $27250. A fall below that critical support level might trigger a more prolonged downtrend. One the other hand, a run above $30000 is still the zone where I will enter longs. Happy Wednesday & happy trading! wbburgin

BTCUSD: Rejected off 30,000 Three Times Bitcoin has been rejected off the 30K level three times in the past week. A wedge between the 100-hour volatility MA and this upper ceiling has continued to narrow as Bitcoin oscillates within. In the next couple hours, closing hourly under the 29250 MA may drive Bitcoin down to the next level of support, the consistent 27250. Using the volatility MA as support again may result in Bitcoin breaking above the 30K level. Happy Sunday & happy trading! wbburgin