librehash

Its been a little while since we've had a chance to look at the price trajectory of Bitcoin. Ever since the implosion of FTX & Alameda, the markets were thrown in a flux, so we absconded from our charting duties for a little while.But now since the markets are back, we're going to make sure that we capture each and every single opportunity out there so that we miss nothing on the price action's ascent from this point going forward.Taking a Look at How We Forecasted Bitcoin PreviouslyBelow is a look at how we forecasted Bitcoin's price action before the SBF debacle:As we can see, we were expecting Bitcoin to at least touch the overhead horizontal resistance at $22.3k. However, that did not happen, as the price fell sharply downward after the news of FTX's bankruptcy shocked the entire cryptocurrency space.That event marked the 3rd black swan in just 2.5 years. Those events 1. Global Pandemic / Stock Market Crash in March 20202. Terra Ecosystem Collapse in May 20223. FTX + Alameda Collapse in November 2022Despite these setbacks (and the fact that two of them came in the space of 6 months), the price of Bitcoin never dipped much further south than $16k.One could consider those two touches to be indicative of a 'double bottom' (chart pattern looks like a 'W').This would be a fair assessment to make, since these two touches followed a long-term downtrend in price.Since then, we've seen the price action break through the former horizontal overhead resistance at $17.2k a few days ago on January 9th, 2023.From there, the price has been on a near vertical trajectory, smashing through one of the overhead horizontal resistance points that we outlined at the $18.8k-19k mark.This breakout was fueled by a 15%+ price burst over the past three days from the time of writing.This is especially remarkable when considering how little volatility was expressed in the price action.Where is Bitcoin's Price Going From Here?Now that we're all caught on what happened, let's see if we can't track down where the price of Bitcoin is going from here.In order to create this forecast, we're going to start by looking at the next resistance point ahead for the price.Resistance Doesn't Mean Guaranteed StopAs we noted prior, Bitcoin's price blew through two overhead horizontal resistance points as if they weren't even there. And when we look at the current price action for Bitcoin on the daily resolution, it doesn't appear as though this overhead resistance point will serve as a significant impediment to price action going forward.Momentum Indicators for BitcoinFor those that don't know, there are two different types of technical indicators that can be applied to any chart's price action in order to gather information for forecasts or understanding about how the price got to where it was at a given point in time.Librehash Balance of Power RSIBrief Review:1. This indicator is built from the Balance of Power2. We take the values of the Balance of Power, then apply the RSI extraction to it (14 periods)3. From there, we smoothed the values over with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA; 9 Periods)4. Then I threw on an ob/os (overbought / oversold) overlay on the chart, coded in the math logic to bound the range (similar to how RSI has a top range of 100 and lower bound of 0)5. Took the average of the values over a certain period of time (manually; not via code), then calculated one standard deviation above and below that average to create the ob/os zones for the indicator6. Added in logic to color the indicator red everytime a period ends with the BoP RSI beyond the ob/os range to show an "extreme" in the buy / sell pressureMain Purpose: To detect buy & sell pressure (very accurately) Below, is a look at what the BoP RSI is showing us on the daily resolution for Bitcoin:As we can see the BoP RSI reading is well above and beyond the RSI-like overlay, which means that the buy pressure is in the extreme range.Does This Mean That the Price is Guaranteed to Decrease From Here?No, not by any means. There are many traders that have the mistaken belief that when an oscillator shows measurements outside of the norms reflected by a bounded range (like the purple overlay we see in the chart above), that a reversal is bound to occur due to some sort of invisible market force that seeks 'equilibrium' above all.However, that is not true. While the indicator itself will likely return within the bounded RSI overlay range, that doesn't mean that the price will follow suit. Sometimes a cooldown in the indicator only means a reduction in the price's momentum (which is expected since this current rate of change in the price is unsustainable), not necessarily that the price will depreciate.With that being said, let's see what the other indicators are showing us.Librehash RSI(14)This is another custom indicator, just like the one before it. This is read just like the regular RSI(14). The only difference here is that the indicator itself (line) changes colors on the basis of whether the exponential moving average of the rate of change of the RSI(14) has surpassed / fell below a slower exponential moving average of the rate of change (if that's confusing, go ahead and check out how the indicator is defined on TradingView underneath the 'librehash' profile).Like the Balance of Power RSI, we can see that the RSI(14) has reached far into the OB (overbought) zone.The same can be ascertained of the Volatility RSI as well.Bitcoin on the Weekly ResolutionSince we want to get a better gauge for what Bitcoin will do in the long-term, we're going to go ahead and shift over to the weekly resolution to see how the indicators are measuring Bitcoin's price action.Second Look at the Librehash RSI(14)As we can see, the RSI(14) has only recently flipped to 'green', indicating that the current rate of change in the price's momentum has begun to pick up (the indicator is coded to help detect true changes in the price action rather than getting caught in the mix by intermittent whipsaw action).There's obviously plenty of room for the RSI(14) to grow from where we're at on the weekly resolution, as the indicator is far below even coming close to breaching the 'overbought' range. Some technical analysis theory suggests that the RSI(14) does not dictate a true change in price momentum until it crosses above / below a reading of '50'.At the time of writing, its currently at 47.58 on our RSI(14).Let's take another look at Bitcoin so we can assess the last time its given us this measurement on the weekly resolution.Taking another look at the RSI(14), we can see that it has increased steadily from June 2022 to present (>6 months).radingview.com/x/idoIXkuSThere have, of course, been periods when the RSI(14) dipped substantially. But overall, the RSI(14) has trended positively from June 2022 to where we are at present. This is notable because Bitcoin has not experienced a stretch of positive RSI(14) movement since March 2020 (following the first black swan we discussed above).Of course, we know what happened to Bitcoin's price trajectory from that point.As we can see, the price of Bitcoin increased by >1100% from that point going forward.What's different about this time, however, is that the RSI(14) has shown significant positive divergence over these past 6 months (this was not the case during the March 2020 pivot).What Does Positive Divergence Mean for the RSI? "Positive divergence indicates a move higher in the price of the asset is possible"In this case, we are indeed seeing positive divergence since the oscillator/indicator has trended upward as the price has declined.When such divergence occurs on the weekly resolution, we should take it seriously. The larger the time frame, the more more substantial the forecast as it pertains to the price trajectory going forward.Risk/Reward TargetFor this forecast, we're going to use the EMA indicators to give us a sense for where we should expect any notable resistance for the price moving forward.To do so, we plotted the EMA 12,26,50,100 & 200. Currently, the price has surpassed the EMA-12 (purple). It appears it'll blast through the EMA-26. Beyond that, the EMA-50 (gold) is hanging out around $25k.So we're going to plot that as our target for our R/R. We'll plot $18.8k as our stop out point since such a decline would warrant a strong reconsideration of our position.That's a potential +27.74% reward, with a risk of approximately -5% from where we're at currently. We can live with that R/R for sure (always risk management!)If we get stopped out, we'll just manage our position from there and decide whether we're going to elect to re-enter or not.

When we first took a look at Bitcoin's price action from a long-term view a few weeks ago, we assumed it was due for another major leg down to the $16-17k level or even lower to the $11-12k zone.This is a sentiment that has been echoed by numerous VC firms, hedge funds, and even investment banks (Goldman Sachs).However, after taking a second look at the large time frame charts for Bitcoin, it appears there's considerable reason for us to revise our initial estimate of what we consider to be the 'bottom' for Bitcoin.We're going to move forward here by shifting the time frame of our chart to the 1-week / 2-week resolution (we'll get to the monthly resolution in due time).Tracking Bitcoin's Total Decline from Top to Bottom, Percentage-WiseFrom the most recent ATH ($68,995) to the lowest point of this current bear market we're in ($17,585), the price declined by approximately -74.51%.That 'bottom' occurred in June 2022. The likely catalyst for this price decline was the UST / LUNA debacle involving Terra Finance that occurred earlier this year.Let's compare this total decline with what we saw from the top of the 2017 bull market to its eventual bottom a little over a year later (13 months) in December 2018.As we can see above, the total price decline during that bear market was approx. 83-84% from the prior ATH set in December 2017.From here, we're going to pan back even further to the peak (ATH) Bitcoin hit in November 2013 to its eventual bottom in January 2015 (13-14 months later).Many have looked at the ensuing price action following the prior two bull runs and have assumed that this cycle is merely an analog.However, if we take a closer look at some of our momentum indicators and compare the readings they're giving us at this present moment to what they gave at the bottom of the previous two bear markets, it appears that the market may have already reached its bottom.Librehash RSI(14) on the 2-Week ResolutionFor this indicator, we're going to take a look at the Librehash RSI(14) on the 2-week resolution.First, we're going to see what the RSI(14) read at the respective bear market bottoms following the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.Above, we can see the RSI(14) provided a reading of 34.24 back in January 2015.The indicator read 36.54 back in December 2018 (bottom following the December 2017 bull run).The only other time that the RSI(14) has yielded a reading that low on the 2-week resolution was back in June 2022.Perhaps without coincidence, this marks the localized low for Bitcoin for this bear cycle.Assuming that the trajectory of the RSI(14) remains, then we've already seen the 'bottom' for this cycle (but don't get too excited just yet because this is only true if the RSI[14] remains on its trajectory).Librehash Volatility RSI on the 2-Week ResolutionTaking a look at the Volatility RSI on the 2-week resolution, we can witness a similar phenomenon between the indicator's readings and the 'bottoms' that were formed following the 2013 and 2017 bull markets.Check out the indicator's readings below at the bottom of the post-2013 bear market (circa. January 2015):Now let's see the indicator's readings at the bottom of the post-2017 bull market (circa. December 2018):Taking a look at the previous two charts, we can see that the indicator turns blue and pivots upward following these 'bottoming' points.Now let's see where the most recent 'bottoming' point is for this indicator in this current bear market cycle we're in:To put these bottoms in perspective, let's take a look at this indicator on the 2-week resolution from a 'panned out' view so that we can compare the location of each 'bottom' point we identified for this indicator on the 2-week resolution.As we can see, the reading provided by this indicator on July 2022, closely matches what it gave us for the bear market bottoms that occurred in December 2018 and January 2015.To be specific, below are the specific numeric readings for this indicator during those times:1. January/February 2015 = 35.842. December 2018 = 35.853. July 2022 = 35.66As we can see, these points are only separated by a few decimals, maximum (0.19 value points).Librehash Trending MANot going to spend too much time going into the calculations behind this indicator beacuse there were numerous adjustments that had to be made to its original iteration after receiving some valuable feedback from a subscriber.The important thing to note is that this indicator is primed to signal exits & entries on the basis of overall trend. In other words, its meant to be resistant to intermediate whipsaws in the price action that can yield 'false' buy / sell signals from indicators that are too sensitive in their tuning.Thus, this indicator is not designed to 'signal' very often. And when it does signal, its mean to capture the localized 'bottom' and 'top' of a specific region of price action.This indicator is designed to be overlaid on the price chart. So let's see what its showing us on the 2-week resolution below:This, itself, is not an indicator that the price has bottomed out, but it does lend itself as a strong arguing point that we're far away from seeing any major drop in price or significant takeover by bears in the near future (remember we're still on the 2-week resolution here).Librehash Double Guppy Channels on the 2-Week ResolutionThis is yet another custom indicator we're using as a lens to examine Bitcoin's price action on the 2-week resolution.The LH double guppy creates a range-bounded channel that envelops the price action (i.e., indicator is coded so that the price never falls below or above the channel). Typically, when the price price action is at the bottom of the channel, we're due for a bounce. When the price is at the top of the channel, we're due for a drop (to understand the reasons why, visit the indicator page where there's a comprehensive explanation of how the indicator works).Let's take a look at what the indicator is showing us below on the 2-week resolution:As we can see the price has been bumping against the bottom of the double guppy channels for the past few weeks (dating back to April 2022).Again, this is not an indicator that the price is at a bottom but it doesn't portend any substantial bearish price action in the near future (remember terms like 'near future' are relative to the time frame we're using here, which is the 2-week resolution in this case; at this time frame, 'near future' should be extrapolated to refer to the next 5-10 periods at least, which would give us a 10-20 week time frame).Identifying the 'Flat Base' Chart FormationThe 'flat base' is a chart formation discovered by legendary Thomas Bulkowski and documented in his famous technical indicator reference guide titled, 'Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition'.Its important that we take the time to identify this chart formation because many traders in the public analyzing Bitcoin's price have falsely claimed that its current price action reflects an evolving 'descending triangle' formation like what we saw during the previous bear market (following the 2017 bull run).What's important to note is that this chart formation is typically characterized by: 1. A 'high' formed by the price action, which marks the 'opening' of the chart formation itself. This 'high' is typically a 'bounce' off of the underlying horizontal support. 2. That horizontal support we mentioned in #1 remains consistent throughout the duration of the pattern. 3. The overall volatility of the asset's price action decreases as the progresses (from the 'open' to the 'apex' of the triangle).There is no such pattern present or emerging on Bitcoin in any time frame. Period. Doesn't matter whether you look at Bitcoin through a logarithmic or 'regular' view.Exploring the 'Flat Base' PatternThis is a chart pattern we've never covered before because we've never seen Bitcoin (or any other crypto) exhibit such price action.But now that we are observing this chart formation (clearly, at that), its time for us to get a crash course on what the 'flat base' pattern is, how to recognize it, how to identify it within Bitcoin's recent price action and how that impacts our price forecasts moving forward.Thomas Bulkowski noted that he observed this pattern at the end of the 2008 bear market (traditional finance). More critically, he notes that he struggled to identify this chart pattern at first due to his chart settings.Specifically, Bulkowski stated, "The real reason I did not find any [flat base patterns] is because I was using the logarithmic scale on my charts and not the linear or arithmetic scale. Switching to a linear scale when searching for flat bases made all the difference."Now let's take a look at what the Bitcoin price chart looks like when we have our charts set to a 'logarithmic' view (which its usually always on by default):Now let's see what it looks like on the regular, non-adjusted view:As we can see above, Bitcoin's most recent price action strongly mirrors a typical 'flat base' chart formation.This pattern is also commonly referred to as a 'rectangle bottom', which is created when the price enters a traded range (heavy consolidation) for a significant period following heavy bearish price action.In most cases, this pattern is considered to be a bullish reversal where price action is expected to breakout above the overhead horizontal support formed by the traded range during a bullish breakout (which should be accompanied with sufficient volume).ConclusionThis price analysis is going to go on a limb and conclude that we've already seen the bottom for Bitcoin (back in June 2022), and that we should only be seeing perpetual / gradual increases in the price action from here.Given the readings on all of our technical indicators (on various time frames), it doesn't seem unreasonable for someone to take a long position here (with a heavy S/L that must be adhered to).Below is our R/R for the time being (be warned that we're still in a phase of heavy consolidation & low volatility, so the choice to enter into any position at this point may result in one having to wait several more weeks before reaping the potential ROI from this position).You read that R/R right. We set a target for Bitcoin at $32k with a S/L at the current bottom for this bear market at $17.5k.That gives us a reward that's about 7x our risk and a total risk of less than 10%, with a potential reward of >65%. Assuming the price gets there, this would just be a starting mark for us.This price analysis makes such an ambitious forecast because there's nothing on any time frame that's indicating Bitcoin's price is in jeopardy of being seized by bears anytime soon.Let's revisit this price analysis in the near future and see if our forecast ends up being correct.

در این تحلیل، ما دو کار انجام داد: نگاهی به مسیر کوتاه مدت بیت کوین (پیش بینی حرکت قیمت برای چند روز / هفته آینده) و بررسی مسیر بلندمدت بیت کوین در آینده. بخش دوم مهمتر از اولی بود زیرا ما فرضیات خود را مبنی بر اینکه Bitcoin در آستانه یک افت دیگر قرار دارد، دوباره بررسی کرد. دلیل این امر این است که این احتمال وجود دارد که ما قبلاً hit کف را لمس کرده باشیم (هنوز چیزی تأیید نشده است اما برای دیدن منطق این گفته به خواندن ادامه دهید). همانطور که هر کسی که قیمت Bitcoin را مشاهده می کند متوجه شده است، قیمت در چند هفته گذشته به صورت جانبی معامله شده است. در زیر نگاهی سریع به Bitcoin در رزولوشن H12 آورده شده است: همانطور که در بالا می بینیم، تثبیت بیت کوین یک محدوده معاملاتی با مقاومت بالایی در 20.3 هزار و حمایت پایینی در 18.6 هزار (تقریباً) ایجاد کرده است. از بالا به پایین، کل صعود حدود 8.6٪ است که به سختی می توان آن را نوسان در مورد Bitcoin دانست. بسیاری از معامله گران در توییتر و جاهای دیگر خواستار سقوط Bitcoin به زیر حمایت افقی مستحکم در سطح 18.6 هزار هستند. برای سنجش اینکه آیا این درست است یا خیر، ما قصد داریم نگاهی به برخی از شاخص های مومنتوم خود بیندازیم تا ایده بهتری به دست آوریم. ترازوی قدرت RSI ما قصد داریم با ترازوی قدرت RSI شروع کنیم، که یک شاخص سفارشی است که برای ردیابی انباشت (خرید) در مقابل توزیع (فروش) طراحی شده است. حتی اگر ترازوی قدرت RSI به طور قابل توجهی سیگنال عادی ترازوی قدرت را هموار کند (که همه جا وجود دارد)، هنوز تا حدودی hard است تا سنجیده شود که آیا انباشت قطعی در مقابل توزیع برای Bitcoin در اینجا وجود دارد یا خیر. اگر دقیق‌تر نگاه کنیم، می‌بینیم که قطعاً یک مسیر مثبت قابل توجه در این شاخص وجود داشته است که به 10 اکتبر 2022 برمی‌گردد. اگر بتوانیم یک 'خط برازش' برای ترازوی قدرت RSI ترسیم کنیم، بهتر بود، اما آنچه که می‌توانیم از 'آزمون چشمی' به دست آوریم باید کافی باشد تا بگوییم این شاخص به ما می‌گوید که مقدار فزاینده‌ای از انباشت زیربنایی وجود دارد. Librehash RSI(14) RSI(14) طوری طراحی شده است که مانند هر RSI معمولی خوانده شود. تفاوت در اینجا این است که خط RSI بر اساس EMA نرخ تغییر (فرمول واقعی کمی پیچیده تر از این است، برای جزئیات بیشتر صفحه شاخص واقعی را بررسی کنید) تغییر رنگ می دهد. نکته اصلی در اینجا این است که وقتی شاخص سبز چشمک می زند، به این معنی است که RSI(14) سیگنال مومنتوم صعودی می دهد، قرمز به معنای نزولی است، البته. بیایید ببینیم در زیر به ما چه نشان می دهد: از نمودار زیر می بینیم که در حالی که RSI در چند هفته گذشته نسبتاً پر فراز و نشیب بوده است، مسیر کلی روند آن کاملاً ثابت (مثبت) بوده است. Librehash Volatility RSI 'Volatility RSI' یکی دیگر از شاخص های سفارشی است (این یکی به صورت رایگان در دسترس عموم است). هدف از این شاخص اساساً ردیابی نوسانات و جهت قیمت به طور همزمان است. با حرکت خط به سمت بالا، نوسانات کلی نیز افزایش می یابد. وقتی خط 'قرمز' چشمک می زند به این معنی است که نوسانات در حال کاهش است و وقتی 'آبی' چشمک می زند در حال افزایش است (بله، این بدان معناست که نوسانات کلی می تواند در حالی افزایش یابد که حرکت قیمت در آن بازه زمانی سیگنال تثبیت سنگین را می دهد). بیایید نگاهی به شاخص زیر بیندازیم: در حال حاضر به نظر می رسد که Volatility RSI برای مدتی مسیر مثبتی را حفظ کرده است. Librehash Reversion Ribbon در ادامه، قصد داریم نگاهی به Librehash Reversion Ribbon در رزولوشن روزانه بیندازیم (به یاد داشته باشید که قبلاً در رزولوشن H12 بودیم، بنابراین در اینجا 2 برابر زوم کردیم). این شاخص یکی دیگر از شاخص های سفارشی است، اما برای ساده سازی، می توانید این شاخص را به همان روشی که MACD را تحلیل می کنید، تحلیل کنید. بیایید نگاهی به آنچه در زیر به ما نشان می دهد بیندازیم: توجه به این نکته مهم است که وقتی صحبت از Librehash Reversion Ribbon V2 به میان می آید، قرائت های مختلف متعددی وجود دارد که باید از آنچه نمایش می دهد استخراج کنیم تا ایده بهتری از آنچه در حال وقوع است به دست آوریم. این عوامل عبارتند از: 1. موقعیت نوار نسبت به هیستوگرام (خط صفر) 2. رنگ آمیزی شمع ها 3. همگرایی یا واگرایی یکی از قابل توجه ترین مشاهداتی که می توانیم در اینجا انجام دهیم این واقعیت است که خود نوار از جایی که در پایان آگوست 2022 'به پایین ترین حد خود رسیده است' به سمت بالا حرکت کرده است. امیدوارم عکس بالا مسیر نوار را روشن کند. اگر نه، مشاهده در اینجا این است که نوار به صورت عمودی (به سمت بالا) به سمت هیستوگرام حرکت کرده است. این ارزش توجه دارد زیرا، مانند MACD، وقتی سیگنال شاخص از زیر هیستوگرام عبور می کند، به این معنی است که سیگنال می دهد که حرکت قیمت در یک روند نزولی قرار دارد. برعکس، وقتی حرکت قیمت از بالای هیستوگرام عبور می کند، شاخص سیگنال می دهد که حرکت قیمت در یک روند صعودی قرار دارد. در حال حاضر، نوار در آستانه عبور از بالای هیستوگرام است. معنای همه اینها در کوتاه مدت همه شاخص هایی که ما می خوانیم، به طور کلی صعودی هستند. این بدان معنا نیست که قیمت قرار است افزایش یابد. این فقط به این معنی است که همه شاخص ها در حال حاضر قرائت های صعودی را نشان می دهند. با این حال، به نظر نمی رسد که این در حرکت قیمت منعکس شده باشد زیرا قیمت بیت کوین در چند هفته گذشته نسبتاً بی تفاوت باقی مانده است. اگر دوباره به حرکت قیمت برگردیم، دید که قیمت در یک محدوده معاملاتی گیر کرده است که مقاومت افقی بالای سر تنها 7-8٪ بالاتر از حمایت افقی زیربنایی قرار دارد. بنابراین، نیازی به گفتن نیست که می توان از اینجا وارد یک موقعیت خرید شد، اما اگر این کار را انجام دهید، ممکن است مدتی منتظر بمانید تا این معامله به ثمر بنشیند (هر چقدر که طول بکشد تا قیمت بیت کوین از این دوره طولانی تثبیت که در آن بوده است، خارج شود).

تصمیم به بررسی آنچه در pond در Solana اتفاق افتاده است ، زیرا به نظر می رسد که آنها طی 24 ساعت گذشته کاملاً آجیل می روند (و امروز صبح نیز). در نظر داشته باشید که این پروژه برای آن در دسترس نیست تجارت در Coinbase (به دانش من) ، بنابراین شما به یک حساب دیگر در مبادله دیگری مانند FTX ، Huobi یا Binance (Yikes!) نیاز دارید. با نگاهی به وضوح روزانه Solana ، می توانیم ببینیم که قبلاً در حال حاضر آن است حدود 8 ٪ پوند برای دوره ای که تاکنون وجود دارد. نقطه مقاومت در برابر سربار به نظر می رسد 172 دلار است اگر ما آن را از جایی که در حال حاضر هستیم چشمان خود داشته باشیم. با این وجود قیمت این بود که از آن نقطه قدردانی کنیم ، دستاوردها برای هر معامله گر که به دنبال ورود به یک است ، اسمی بود موقعیت بلند مدت تر ، اما اگر شما یک مقیاس دهنده هستید-این یک ورود بد برای برخی از سودهای سریع برای استخراج بود. هرچند ، این بدان معنی نیست که هیچ ورودی طولانی مدت برای Solana وجود ندارد. اگر دیدگاه خود را در مورد وضوح روزانه کمی بیشتر برای Solana برگردانیم ، می توانیم ببینیم که ATH تقریباً 191-194 پوند است. با 16-18 ~ بالقوه برای به دست آوردن از جایی که قیمت در این نقطه فعلی زمان است ، Solana به نظر نمی رسد خیلی بد باشد. اگر ما به وضوح هفتگی مبادله کنیم ، سپس نمای را برای دیدن عملکرد قیمت از نظر چشم پرنده مشاهده کنید ، به نظر می رسد که سولانا در طول سال بد تضمین شده است. به طور معمول تجزیه و تحلیل قیمت توسط Librehash شامل شاخص های فنی تر از آنچه در این مورد وجود داشت (ما در اینجا هیچکدام نداشتیم) ، اما وقتی به دنبال روند Solana در ابتدای سال بود ، نتیجه گیری احتمالی در اینجا آشکار به نظر می رسد. همیشه این احتمال وجود ندارد که تجارت < 5> اگرچه ، بنابراین ما یک R/R ایجاد کرد تا در صورت لزوم ما را وارد و خارج کنیم.

ETH دومین پروژه ای بود که ما در فتوح خود به بخش مناسبی از پروژه های T20-30 در فضای blockchain می پردازیم. ما جلو می رویم و با جایی که قبلاً انتخاب کردیم شروع کرد. برای کسانی که به یاد نمی آورند ، ما مقاومت به روند نزولی سربار را برای Ethereum ترسیم کرده بودیم (که در آینده نزدیک در هر زمان نزدیک می شویم). اکنون این اتفاق می افتد. در اینجا دقیق تر است ، وقتی که قیمت شیب را نقض می کند ، استراحت رخ می دهد. به طور خاص ، در وضوح روزانه ، این اتفاق در اول اکتبر رخ داد. بنابراین به نظر می رسد که Ethereum تصمیم گرفت ماه مرخصی را با یک انفجار شروع کند. این کنجکاو است که در نظر گرفتن این واقعیت که عملکرد بیت کوین نیز از بین رفت. من این را می گویم زیرا به طور معمول این دو پروتکل در چرخه های مختلف بازار قرار دارند. اما در حال حاضر اگر بخواهیم مسیر قیمت Bitcoin را طی 24-72 ساعت گذشته با آن از اتریوم مخلوط کنیم ، به نظر می رسد که نمودارها تقریباً به عنوان یکی از آنها پوشانده می شوند. برخی از نکات اضافی Notelet نگاهی به قدردانی کامل برای Ethereum در طی 24-72 ساعت گذشته می اندازد. بعد ، بیایید نگاهی به برخی از میانگین های متحرک نمایی (12 ، 26 ، و 50) بیندازیم. در نمودار بالا: خط بنفش = خط EMA-12GREEN = EMA-26GOLDEN LINE = EMA-50CURIOUSIOUSE ، طی یک روز گذشته ، EMA-12 از بالای EMA-50 عبور کرد (اما هنوز هم در زیر EMA-26 باقی مانده است). بنابراین ، این پشته ضعیف صعودی است). من می ببینم که آیا می توانم اطلاعاتی در مورد فعالیت قیمت بالقوه را در مدت فوری کسب کنم ، بنابراین می چارچوب زمانی را با وضوح H4 (4 ساعت) تنظیم کنم. بیایید ببینیم که چه چیزی به ما می دهد. من چند خط افقی را به نمودار اضافه کردم تا نقاط پشتیبانی را که در این یادداشت زمانی مشخص کردم ، علامت گذاری کنم - این را برای یک ثانیه به تنهایی رها کردم زیرا بازارها امروز یکشنبه (تا حدودی) این Hard برای خواندن است. بزرگنمایی هیچ چیز در نمودار در هر بازه زمانی که واقعاً فریاد نزولی یا صعودی را فریاد می زند. نگاهی به ETH در وضوح سه بعدی (3 روز). ما خطوط میانگین متحرک نمایی را برداشته و نمودار w روبان معکوس Librehash را روکش کردیم. شمع های فوق در طی چند دوره گذشته قرمز عمیق است. این شاخص شمع ها را به صورت متفاوتی می رنگ می کند (علاوه بر ارائه خوانده شده از طریق هیستوگرام ، ارتفاع روبان و همگرایی / واگرایی خود روبان ، همراه با تغییرات مختلف در رنگ روبان واقعی که به طور مستقل از کراس اوور یک band یا دیگری اتفاق می افتد). هنگامی که شمع های نمودار به رنگ قرمز عمیق رنگ هستند ، این به طور معمول نشانگر عملکرد عمیق نزولی است (نه افزایش نمی یابد ؛ اما نسبتاً با دوره های قبلی). با کمال تعجب ، سه شمع متوالی همه قرمز عمیق هستند (بدون تغییر در رنگ) ، با وجود این که قیمت 23 ٪ پوند قدردانی می شود. این مشاهده حتی کنجکاوتر است که در نظر گرفتن این واقعیت که این افزایش در قیمت ETH فقط در 9-12 روز گذشته اتفاق افتاده است (که واقعاً اصلاً طولانی نیست). با این حال ، اگر نگاهی به ارتفاع هیستوگرام در همان بازه زمانی زمانی بیندازیم. که ... صعودی به نظر می رسد. با کم شدن به سمت دیلیلاکینگ در مورد چگونگی رسیدن به اینجا ، شایان ذکر است که در قیمتی که از 15 سپتامبر 21 سپتامبر (22 ٪ ضرر) رخ داده است ، یک عقب نشینی نسبتاً عمیق وجود دارد. این افت قیمت مقاومت به سمت پایین را به سمت پایین ایجاد کرد. این واقعیت که رکود مورب سربار چند دوره بعد شکسته شد ، قطعاً نشانه مثبتی است (اگر به دنبال طولانی مدت هستیم). از آن نقطه ، قیمت تقریباً 16 ٪ پوند قدردانی کرده است. اما در زمان نوشتن ، قیمت برای مدتی با علامت 3.4K دلار رکود شده است (کمی و بدون اقدام به قیمت واقعی). مسائل نظارتی بالقوه برای چندین پروژه در Ethereum وجود دارد که پتانسیل سرمایه گذاری شیرین کاری / فشار خرید را دارند (از طریق احساسات نزولی که به طور کلی به سمت ایده های Defi رشد می کند). اگر این را دوست ندارید ، پس یک قمارباز تکان دهنده هستید که باید به خاطر گفتن "هدف" ، به امتناع نویسنده توجه ویژه ای داشته باشید!

For the record, Librehash is still as bearish as it gets on Bitcoin (at the time of writing). Skipping the long introductions, let's just hop right into things and see what's going on from an aerial perspective. Bitcoin Price AnalysisWe're going to start with the Librehash Reversion Ribbon V2 overlaid on the chart (see below). In the chart above, we can see that the Histogram is expanding (to the south). That means that the bearish divergence between the two lines that form the ribbon are expanding (signaling an increase in bearish price activity & sentiment in the markets). Also, the ribbon itself continues to decline from its peak height, reached on July 31st, 2021. Exponential Moving AveragesTo start off with, we're just going to look at the EMA-12, EMA-26 and EMA-50.Below is a quick legend:EMA-12 = PurpleEMA-26 = GreenEMA-50 = GoldenIn the chart above, we can see that all three aforementioned exponential moving average periods are stacked on top of one another ('fastest' to 'slowest'), which indicates that this bullish signal for Bitcoin (on the daily resolution), remains in tact.The EMA-12 is clearly serving as support in the photo above at the $45.3k mark. As to how long that will last for remains to be seen. The 'faster' the period, the weaker the resistance / support when it comes to EMA lines. Below that is the EMA-26 at the $42.2k and the EMA-50 resting at \$40k flat (just about). Volume Analysis (Examining Divergence)The most troubling metric here is the clear volume divergence (which can be seen obviously from the daily and weekly resolutions). Let's take a look at the volume divergence on the daily resolution first (below). As we can see, during Bitcoin's +23% price increase, the volume decreased day over day. Its worth noting here that the chart above is the 'BTC: Index', which is the TradingView market that includes aggregate data from all legitimate data sources, amalgamated into one 'average'.Now let's take a look at what the volume reading gives us on the weekly resolution.Apart from the divergence, there are a few other observations worth making here as well.1. Pay close attention to the color of the volume candles (at the bottom of the chart). A major indicator of a bear / bull market is the size of the buy / sell volume candles. For example, in a bull market, we should expect the green candles to be taller than the red candles. Conversely, in a bear market, the red candles should be taller than the green ones (indicating increased trading activity during sell-offs vs. 'bull runs'). Above, we can observe that, over the past couple dozen periods or so, the sell volume has far outstripped buy volume. This is pretty significant. 2. Volume has been declining over a series of weeks, which is also significant. Given the other observations we've made here, it is likely that when the volume does increase (significantly for any reason), this will likely lead to a major decline in the price3. Additionally, the fact that the price has been able to increase by 20-40%+ during period where the volume is declining indicates that the sell pressure is declining vs. buy pressure increasing (i.e., bears taking profits and likely waiting for another opportune time to short / throttle the price back down once again)In conclusion, everything we see above (related to volume) is bearish. Resoundingly. Librehash Trending MAIf you're a Librehash subscriber, you likely have never seen this upcoming indicator before. This is one that I've been working on "in the lab", since it was brought to my attention by a user that the 'Librehash Aggressive MA', was failing to generate valid results on shorter time frames. This motivated me to amend the indicator to be more sensitive to varying market conditions while retaining consistency in its 'readings'. Below is an example of what this 'Trending MA' looks like when overlaid on the daily resolution. There's a lot going on here, so I'll try to dissect the most relevant bits for everyone. 1. We use the 'hlc3', which stands for the "high" + "low" + "close" divided by 3, rather than the ohlc/4 typically used (I find this to be a more accurate reading). 2. The 'Hulls MA' is used vs. the exponential moving average, for specific reasons. For those wondering, the definition of the 'Hulls MA' (from TradingView), is that its an 'moving average', created, "For the purpose of reducing lag, increasing responsiveness while at the same time eliminating noise. Its calculation is elaborate and makes use of the 'Weighted Moving Average (WMA)." It retains similarity to the EMA since it also, "Emphasizes recent prices over older ones, resulting in a fast-acting yet smooth moving average that can be used to identify the prevailing market trend". The final statement amde about this indicator is that, "It can also be used for entry and exit signals. The indicator is mostly used by swing traders and by long term traders in combination with other signals and analysis techniques."(source: tradingview.com/scripts/hullma/). One of the best parts about this indicator is that it smooths itself, whereas we typically use EMA indicators to smooth out other signals (i.e., 'Balance of Power' to form the "Librehash Balance of Power RSI", for instance).3. We restricted the length to '9' since we're on the daily resolution.4. The 'purple' candles are colored specifically to signal that the current trend is going to continue; I added this in the indicator's design to help traders decide whether they want to remain in a trade or exit; often times when we're in a trending trade and we see the price start to move in the opposite direction, we have a tendency to panic and just salvage profits. While this is not an explicitly bad idea, this is an action that can curtail potential profit potential. (this is remarkably accurate).5. The little 'crosses' above (or below) candles, signal an impending reversal (these tend to be remarkably accurate and often times beat the 'color change' of the line).6. The 'Trending MA' itself is designed to keep traders in trades (even when there is an uptick in volatility, sideways price action [i.e., consolidation], etc.)Zooming in slightly, we can see that the indicator is currently signaling a 'bearish trend' emerging (remember the purpose of the indicator is to mark changing trends, not signal "buy" or "sell"; indicators that claim to do such a thing are snake oil - treat them accordingly).This indicator marking is even more pronounced on smaller time frames. Below is the indicator overlaid on Bitcoin's price on the H8 resolution (8-hour time frame).Balance of Power RSI Bringing this one up because its even more bearish than it was when we originally looked at it in the previous price analysis we conducted a few days ago. Let's check it out (below; daily resolution). In the charts above, we can see the Balance of Power RSI has been plummeting on the daily resolution. This should be of special concern to bulls, because this indicates that the sell pressure has been increasing over the past few weeks.However, we can see the price increase (significantly) over the same time frame. These two facts together simply mean that 'whales' (for lack of a better term), are likely selling into the artificial bullish price action facilitated by a lack of heavy selling (like what we saw back in May 2021).ConclusionThere are other things that can be said about the price if we want to nitpick, but overall, everything I can see on the charts (daily and below as well as up to the weekly resolution), are screaming bearish price action impending.If I'm wrong about this, I would be really shocked and it would force me to go back to the drawing board with a few things to reconsider things that I previously assumed to be fundamental truths about trading.This price analysis will be concurrently published on TradingView (haven't gotten around to a ton of those lately!). Looking to be more consistent on there too. If you're interested in checking that out, make sure to visit tradingivew.com/u/librehash (our profile); and also check out our other social media channels as well.