holeyprofit

تله‌های گاو نر در دوران مدرن پیچیده‌تر شده‌اند، چرا که ما مجبوریم انواع فریبکاری‌ها را در نظر بگیریم، اما مدل اصلی برای تله گاو نر (یا هر معکوس‌سازی از یک اصلاح) این است که به دنبال یک اصلاح 76 باشیم. در اینجا استراتژی برای این است. بسیاری از نمودارهای کریپتو به این شکل هستند. همه آنها فریاد تله گاو نر. ETH مدتی است در حال توسعه است. COIN دقیقاً مشابه به نظر می رسد. به طور کلی، بهترین عملکرد ارز دیجیتال در طول رالی شبیه به این تله گاو نر کلاسیک است. با اینکه دیگران حتی قادر به مدیریت تله گاو نر محترم نیستند. تنها چیزی که به بازار ارزهای رمزنگاری شده یک مورد مناسب برای شکست‌های جدید می‌دهد، بیت کوین بود، اما از آن زمان به مدت 6 ماه روند نزولی داشته است. کریپتو بسیار آسیب پذیر به نظر می رسد.

The 4 year cycle narrative would have it that the most volatile asset, that will drop over 70% the most times and then have the most explosive gains to the upside will also the one that is the most predictable and the most popular one for people to have all in exposure on. Which I consider optimistic. While getting ultra wealthy being long this accommodatingly predictable asset we also get to revolutionise the world and bring down those dastardly bankers. Back in 2021 I observed the same broad mood. At the time it was largely focused into GME, AMC (Handful of other stocks) and crypto. At the time I made a post saying this is either "The brave new world or the same old trap". I feel this post sums up my thoughts on the crypto market at present. Let's look at all the different things that challenge the idea. 1 - Statistically insignificant. A four cycle determined over 12 years is just bad maths. We perhaps have enough for a suggestion which we could create a forward looking test hypothesis on, but at this point we have something that is statistically insignificant. Like if a roulette wheel is spun 12 times and lands on red every four times. We don't have a "Four spin cycle". 2 - Ignoring more obvious and tighter correlations If you'd always assumed over the last decade BTC would act mostly the same as SPX - you'd have been right most of the time. This would have accurately forecast the major bull and bear swings in BTC better than the idea of the halving cycle. The correlation of risk on / off with the SPX is more statistically useful. 3 - Related models not working At this point the premise is now the BTC bull is under way we should see alts doing well. Alts have never done well. Briefly going into "Alt season" before crashing. The alts have never recovered from 2021. With only a few exceptions, the crypto market currently has a 2021 top (With most things being well over 50% off the highs). Another popular model cited is the S2F model. But when you read up on this model and what it predicts/historically predicts - many pro crypto sites will state that it's not really working. Hasn't been working for a while. Based on the estimates people gave me based on the S2F model on my posts 6 months ago, it appears it's not working now. The idea of predictable market cycles in crypto has already been faltering. And it seems no one promoting these models wants to give clear failure conditions. Or not ones that would be helpful in a decline, anyway. Any time I speak with people using these models, they do not have a suitable way to protect themselves from being wrong. Not a stated one, anyway. Closest I've come to one was someone told me "IF BTC does not make a new high in the next 2 halvings the model fails". Okay ... cool. So the plan is just to lose for 8 years and then accept that was a bad idea. I don't consider that a plan. Sounds like "Hopefulness" to me. 4- Entire disregard for tail risk The idea of a four year cycle entirely ignores any chance of any influence of anything outside of this cycle. It overlooks the lifetime known of markets that 99% of models have no way of accounting for tail risk. However, any time there's been a tail risk like event in risk markets - BTC has reacted to it. So it's reasonable to assume that could happen again if something massively unexpected happened. 5 - Ignores historical tendency for models to breakI love using models. Mine are different in style than this, but I do almost all of my trading and analysis based on models. They're good when they work, but generally everything will have a big failure. As a general rule, the more well observed a pattern is the closer it is to breaking - and the most viciously it will break (Perhaps exogenous event). 6 - Logically inconsistent The idea of a well known four year cycle is logically inconsistent because if there's a known known in the market this is a free lunch. Why would the sharps in the market not spot this and front run it? And these people are sharps so they're doing a lot of volume - and thus the very existence of such a cycle would predict market dynamics change that cycle. It's similarly logically inconsistent to pass off any move that does not fit into the mould as Whales manipulation". I am willing to accept BTC is probably a cornered market. Probably always has been and this is probably why it tends to move in such direct bursts, be it up or down. So I'd not reject the idea of "Whale manipulation". What I reject is the idea you know what the whales think. That these people who've been able to accumulate so much power and influence in the market must have a simple to understand 2D plan. It's equally possible these people have a 5D plan that includes making you believe you have a sure bet at the high so they can dump onto you. 7 - Assumptive of demand The four year cycle works on a bit of a logical fallacy. Which is when you say because one thing is true that means other things have to be true. Like if someone is pulled into a police station and they say, "I came in - I must be telling the truth". These two statements do not have to relate to each other. It's true they came in. The other is not proven by them being there. Similarly the four year model. The truth is there will be a decline in future supply on a relatively predictable set period of time. From this it's inferred that there will always be growing or consistent demand and therefor the supply and demand dynamics have to push price higher. But it's logically inconsistent because it does not address where the demand is coming from and any attempt to address this is 100% of the time "Price going up will create demand". Again, not a point I'd argue. If something goes up, more people may want to buy it - but we are assuming price will go up and using that to assume our demand. Which kinda reduces the bull thesis down to "If BTC goes up it will go up". I should not say 100%. There are a small percentage of people who will argue for adoption and growth of real world use to come, but there's no evidence of this. At all. There's not a growth in people using Bitcoin for anything other than transferring it into fiat. Either cashing out or cashing in. Almost no one is using it as money. And it remains entirely irrational to think it will be adopted because businesses simply can not run with a currency risk of +/- 10% on any given hour. It's 1,000,000% impractical. Only made practical by converting the BTC to fiat or a stablecoin tied to fiat instantly - and then that's just using USD with more steps. Outside of speculation, there is no case for growing demand. And when we link the demand with speculation we have to accept that the demand can boom or dry up to almost nothing entirely based on what the market does. Hypothetically there could be only one Bitcoin in existence and still no one wants it. Certainly no one wants it enough to pay 100K for it. Demand based on price rises can very fickle. ====All in all, I think the idea of a predictable four year cycle should be at best considered a hypothesis which we can track and test going forward. There is no promise. And the fact there's an implied sense of there being a promise in the air - I think is incredibly risky.Red lines are halvings. Green lines are leap years. Blue lines are world cups. There is a better edge historically to buying at the end of the year there's a world cup than the havling. This can be done with any number of things that happen every four years that we can all objectively agree upon having no influence of the BTC price. And the same principle can be applied to most things that have uptrended for a decade. What this is showing is really the ebb and flow of an uptrend. At this time these also fit well with the narrative of the halving. But how easily could that change? The entire narrative could become redundant within 5 years. If the market goes into any sort of downtrend or crash move rather that follow the cycle, virtually all of the BTC models that aim to forecast price moves entirely fail in unison. The whole narrative that exists today might not even exist in 5 years time. There are people who have all in bets based on models and narratives and if there was to be some sort of crash event and then the market even just ranged for a number of years - the ideas they are betting on would no longer exist as credible ideas. 12 years is not a long time for a market. No major asset class had its largest bear event in the first 12 years. Narratives that exist in the first 12 years can be entirely dispelled over the coming years. The ideas people are betting on are very fragile. I'm not saying they won't work. My ideas are as liable to be wrong as anyone else's, what I saying is the ideas can fail entirely. Absolutely and entirely. And after that, they no longer exist as credible ideas. They never mattered - there was just an illusion they did.

پست تله گاو نر ETH را در زیر دنبال کنید. از زمانی که این مورد را تکمیل کردیم، بسیار مطابق با پیش‌بینی شکست روند صعودی کلاسیک عمل کرده‌ایم. ما 76 را به بالا رساندیم و به 50 سقوط کردیم. از 50 ما سعی کردیم یک اوج جدید ایجاد کنیم اما دوباره در 76 شکست خوردیم. 50 سپس یک فیب تله گاو نر به 61 رسید و ما شکست 50 را داشتیم. اکنون ممکن است فیب 38 را بشکنیم که منجر به نوعی کاپیتولاسیون شود. این حرکت تقریباً مشابه نقشه راه است. یک انحراف بزرگ از آن زمانی که ما از 50 به 76 معامله کردیم (به جای 50 - 61 به عنوان پیش بینی). در پیش بینی اولیه ما این سطح را به عنوان یک سطح جهش نرم و سپس شکست 38 را داشت. شکست 38 معمولاً یک افت شدید به فیب 23 می بیند.

این امکان وجود دارد که ما یک شکست کاذب از اوج ها را تشکیل داده باشیم. اگر یک شکست دیگر ببینیم، احتمال این بسیار بیشتر است و تمام اقداماتی که دیده‌ایم قابل اجرا بود، زیرا اولین قطره موج متوالی بزرگ 2 بوده است. اگر اینطور باشد، موج 2 صاف است. قرار است به روند موج 3 تبدیل شود. وقتی این اتفاق در بازه‌های زمانی به این بزرگی می‌افتد، آن را یک تصادف می‌نامیم. انتظار می رود موج 3 تا 30 هزار ادامه یابد. معکوس‌های تقلبی و تله‌های گاو نر حدود 30K برای تشکیل موج 4. سپس برای موج 5 در 25K شست‌وشو دهید. حتی در نزولی ترین سناریوها، من انتظار دارم که پس از این افت، یک رالی تا 45 هزار یا بیشتر ببینم. از اینجا تعصب شدیداً به نوعی اصلاح می شود. اما این کاهش به 25K ممکن است اولین علامت super واضح باشد که روند صعودی BTC ماکرو شکست خورده است. با مرحله اول یک تغییر روند کامل بسیار سازگار است. و اگر این اتفاق بیفتد، احتمالاً در چندین سال آینده، BTC بیش از 60 هزار نفر را دید. می توانم تا آنجا پیش بروم که بگویم چند سال بعد، ایده BTC تا 100K یک meme بود.

In this analysis I'll break down the possible BTC topping pattern into three main stages. 1 - The pending bull flag. I'll cover this first, because this is the common consensus. That we're in a flag and when the breakout is made we should expect to see an extension at least as big as the previous rally. Flag patterns lead to big breakouts, when they work. But there's also a lot of other things that can form something that looks like a flag in real time. For example, here's a flag like pattern at high before the 2020 drop. In real time, it looks like a bullish flag. After the fact we can see it traded lower highs in a descending channel. It spiked out the lower end of the channel, made one more bull trap - failed to make a high and then the next break was a larger break. This 100% looked like a bull flag in real time. If you go and look at lots of highs in lots of things (Not just crypto), you'll see it's very common a reversal starts with a sort of "Stepping down" action and this range based action (With a very subtle bear tone because the lower highs) acts a lot like bull flag. I see the bull flag. We all see it. I just dispute the strength of the signal. Things like this are also things I see in topping moves. 2 - The lower highs. Looking again at the 2020 high example, with the benefit of hindsight it's clear to see the warnings of the failure of bull momentum were there. The problem for having a bear bias at that time was there'd been stuff like that previously and it'd popped and recency bias (Or just fear of spikes) makes it hard to feel bearish. But there were warnings. The development of the lower highs was a clear warning. it got more and more pronounced and then it slammed. For a long time it was possible to see this might happen using the simple method of lower highs being a sign of possible weakening. The same would be true now. Let's say hypothetically in 9 months time BTC had traded 70% lower. Would be easy to zoom into this topping section and point out the stages of the failure. Just like I've done in the 2020 one. With the benefit of hindsight, explaining the signs of trend failure would be trivial to anyone with basic market structure understanding. The lower highs condition is particularly useful to us as traders because it's testable and comes with an obvious invalidation point. Which means we can use it to make decisions if we're wrong quickly. That's my main interest. I don't mind being wrong, I mind staying wrong. I want to stay right for a long time and be wrong quickly (Cut/ride). So with that condition, we can mark out a clear zone at which the thesis of the downtrend channel development into crash would fail. If we're not seeing lower highs, then we're not seeing downtrending action. 3 - The pending reversal patterns.And that brings us into our final and most actionable points for a trade plan. Up to now we've covered why in theory we could see a big break in the BTC market. We have clearly defined what our bet is (Structural lower highs) and by understanding what our bet is we can clearly understand where it's failed. Covers a lot of the basics of a trading idea. What do I think might happen? How do I think it will look if it does happen? What makes it obvious that is wrong?We can then further optimise this by using bearish entry signals to define the ideal shorting areas and stop areas.BTC is currently at the 76 fib which is a classic fib for a bull trap. In theory, the high should already be in on that. In practice, you always have to worry about BTC maybe spiking out. It really is bad for it. In some sort of ugly spike variant it could look something like this. But in the classic bull trap we 76 hit with that massive candle should be the top. Complimenting this, we have a possible Gartley. The OG of harmonics. I have to say, I've found the Gartley to be the least reliable of the harmonics to the point where I don't even look for Gartley patterns anymore. But I do look for 76 retracements inside of forming lower highs and lower lows. There's also a Gartley like pattern. And it's quite a nice Gartley, as they go, it completes with a 1.61 AB=CD. With an explosive D leg. So at this point we can determine it's most likely if we're going to see a bear break that we're somewhere in the topping sequence of this rally. Further to this, if we are going to see a bear break we're not going to see anywhere close to this price again for a while. The next rally will be more stunted and then rallies will just stop. This I'd say stacks up as a high probability setup. Here's a run down of the things I am thinking about; 1 - False breakouts of all time highs can produce crashes. I spoke about this extensively at the high. I spoke so much about this at the high that the percentage of posts I have about crypto went up 5%. I have a lot of posts. 5% was quite a lot of new ones. It's perfectly logical if there's a false breakout there'll be a crash. That's all that ever happens if there's a false breakout. 2 - The structural sell off. Typically corrective legs will end in two legs. BTC typically should be at a new high by now. I've had a fair crack at buying it after capitulations for this epic bounce and breakout but every time it run a little and I end up getting out because it's not doing what I think it should. Typical bullish continuation has already failed and typical bearish reversal patterns have not yet failed. 3 - The confluence of the 76 and the two legged Gartley/AB=CD pattern. That's all bears should want, really. It all marries up perfectly.4 - It appears we may be heading into rate cuts. While I do not make any speculations on if/when these will happen or the impact they will have, it is notable that in all the major crashes of our time the theme has been markets up until rates are cut - then they reverse. BTC shows strong evidence of being correlated with indices. If the indices go down hard, BTC goes down harder. In the last 50 years, every single time there were parabolic markets on rising interest rates when the rates began to be cut the market began to drop. Typically over the next two years most of the gains of the rally would be wiped out and, alongside this, interest rates would have returned to the floor. ---Please note that being able to define something as a high probability setup generally just means if it does fail it will fail spectacularly. If using this as a consideration for actually betting on the move it's important to observe the stop loss/failure requirements covered above. In the event of a break, this can be heading to under 20K. Another drop would put BTC through the level i defined at the high as the crash level.Full extrapolated trade plan if what appears to be a bullish flag is actually a bearish flat in wave 2 of a reversal.Here's the reaction from the 76 so far.Straight down 10% off the entry. Retracement to retest the break is fair game now. Could be the end of the selling for the moment. Maybe pick up again next month if it is.Here's something I think is worth knowing. When we have two legs these are often corrective and when they are corrective we usually see the first drop taking out the first leg. Then a bit of a bull trap and then the follow through. Making waves 1,2 and 3 of Elliot. So what bears ideally want to see here is a bit of a sharp rally. Price being sticky at 62K area until the end of the month. If those things happen - next posts will be talking about lotto puts on COIN and MSTR.I now have a strong risk off bias for crypto and stocks for the month ahead but I do suspect if I am right about that there won't be anything big this month. Bluff this way, bluff that way - stick some arrows in the bears backs and then move next month. That's be my preliminary thoughts. Just a heads up if I go quiet. So long as my stop level does not hit, ideally I'm looking to get really active on this at 62K area some time early next month.Probably max risk of a bigger bounce here for bears. Would be interested in shorting the rip if we did.Bounce sucked. Would still like to see it higher but that might have been it. Indices completed all their technical bounces also. So that may be the correction in - as dull as it was. Starting to get seriously into the planning for some aggressive OTM puts on COIN and MSTR now. I think we might have seen the first failure of the risk on market yesterday. Certainly set the scene for it. We'll see what happens in the coming days. Do plan to start to position as if a break is coming.If you've read my posts before hopefully you'll know the system from here on. Classic simple bull traps tend to be 76 retracements. That's why I am here talking about this now. If the simple bull trap is in play, this should around the high. If not, then trailing stops hit above it and I'll try to limit into 62K again (Which is the next big resis). In simple bear theory, rejection here and new low.Better bounce now. Did suspect that last one was a bit shallow. Getting into a confluence of resistance levels here. Sharp move up to 63K likely if this area break but this is the first big level we have for a possible top. Really good chance we'll see stronger bearish momentum if new lows are made now.Here's the trade levels.

BTC روند نزولی داشته است for 6 ماه. وقتی به نمودارهای کوچک‌تر نگاه می‌کنید، کمتر آشکار می‌شود، زیرا آشفته است، اما وقتی به نمودار ماهانه نگاه می‌کنید، تا حد ممکن واضح است. فتیله های رو به بالا همگی پایین تر هستند. فتیله های پایین همه پایین تر هستند. ما از زمان شکست کاذب، یک سری پایین‌ترین و اوج‌های پایین‌تر ایجاد کرده‌ایم. اگر دوباره بشکنیم، زمانی که در اوج بودیم، از سطحی که من به عنوان سطح شکست بحرانی علامت‌گذاری کردم عبور کرد. پست قدیمی را اینجا بخوانید؛ در حال حاضر سطح ساخت یا شکست واقعی for BTC. اگر بتواند روند نزولی را بشکند ظاهر بسیار خوبی بود for، اما اگر نتوانیم ممکن است در این مورد به انحراف آشکار نزدیک شویم. ممکن است یک دوره 6 ماهه طعمه گذاری داشته باشیم. آوردن گاوها قبل از نوبت. اگر این چیزی است که اتفاق می افتد، ما اکنون نزدیک هستیم.

هر چه زمان بیشتر می گذرد، این تز که اوج BTC جدید فقط یک فتیله است اعتبار پیدا می کند. پست قدیمی را اینجا ببینید؛ tradeview.com/chart/BTCUSD/e5WYh3TO-BTC-Breakout-Stick-Or-is-it-Just-a-Wick/من سعی کردم از روی پشتیبانی خرید کنم. با انجام این کار مقداری پول به دست آورده‌اید، اما هیچ شکاف بزرگی که در یک بازار پایین‌تر انتظار می‌رود وجود ندارد. در عوض، تله‌های متلاطم بیشتری در راستای بازار معکوس داریم. در افت اخیر ممکن است یک شکست پروانه صعودی داشته باشیم. اگر اینطور باشد، در صورت شکستن مجدد، شاهد خرابی زیر سطوح پشتیبانی بود. شکست در روند صعودی BTC یک خطر قانونی است.

من آرزوهای قبلی ام را خیلی زود بیرون آوردم. امتیاز خرید من پایین بود، اما تصمیم گرفتم وثیقه بگذارم که شاخص‌ها کاهش می‌یابند و BTC با آنها کاهش می‌یابد. شاخص ها کاهش یافتند، BTC به افزایش خود ادامه دادند و کسب درآمد بیشتر در نوسانات شاخص ها بسیار آسان تر از BTC بود که من فقط آن را فراموش کردم. تصمیم گرفتم که بعداً اگر با شاخص‌ها به مرحله‌ای رسید، سعی کنم یک نوسان بزرگ در آن بگیرم. که دارد. BTC و همه شاخص‌ها در حال حاضر به حمایت رسیده‌اند. اکنون در BTC در یک معامله بزرگ ole ضربه بزنید.

قیمت طولانی doge در 10 سنت بود، اما اگر این یک ضربه در بازار کریپتو نباشد، واقعاً شگفت‌زده می‌شویم. برای one واقعاً جالب به نظر می رسد. تعصب قاطعانه به کوتاه در حال حاضر. کوتاه doge کوتاه 0.1171 استاپ 0.1246 هدف 0.782

ما اکنون در حال آزمایش مجدد قیمتی هستیم که من از شورت خود از high در حین افت خارج شدم. من سعی کردم اینجا را در راه پایین بخرم، حتی در شب متوقف شدم. دوباره در پایین خریدم اما فکر می کنم بهترین شرط در حال حاضر مانند ورود مجدد شورت من در سطح خروج است. من دوست دارم سطوح کالا را مبادله کنم، زیرا اغلب حق با شماست و یا مجدداً آزمایش می‌کنید و زمان دارید تا تصمیم را دوباره ارزیابی کنید. این بخشی از منطق من برای تلاش طولانی بود. من کمی ریسک دارم، احتمالاً می توانم بیرون بیایم حتی اگر اشتباه باشد و not به احتمال زیاد من کوتاه را از دست داد زیرا قیمت خروج من معمولاً دوباره آزمایش می شود. من جدیدترین Long های خود را near پایین ترین قیمت ممکن 1.61 هد جعلی را انتخاب کردم. این می تواند یک الگوی پایانی برای یک روند باشد. با این حال، این یک نقطه قطبی است. اگر این not به عنوان پشتیبان باشد، شکستن آن معمولاً خود را به تسلیم کوتاه مدت می رساند. ما از این سطح بالاتر هستیم، اما "واکنش" و "واکنش" not یکسان هستند. اگر سطوح خوبی را معامله کنید، معمولاً واکنشی دریافت کرد. Not همه واکنش ها به معکوس تبدیل می شوند. زمانی که باید بیشتر نگران این موضوع باشیم، زمانی است که در 76 اصلاح و آزمایش مجدد ساختار قبلی هستیم - که اکنون است. شکست گاو نر در اینجا واقعاً نگاه خوبی برای تجارت گاو نر بود، اما اگر در شرف شکست باشد - اینجا شکست خورد. دسته ای از BTC، ADA و Doge را در پایین ترین سطح برداشت. 10-20٪ یا بیشتر در این موارد، اما همه چیز دنباله دار واقعا تنگ متوقف می شود. فکر می‌کنم ممکن است پایین‌تر را ببینیم، و اگر چنین است - احتمالاً یک پا پایین strong است. نظر: شروع به فکر کردن 35 هزار تومان ممکن است سطح بهتری برای امتحان خرید باشد. تجارت فعال: اگر کار می کند باید high باشد. توقف نهایی باید انجام شود.