ew-forecast

USD Can Make A Pullback As US Yields Drop USD keeps moving higher, possibly on speculation that House vote on U.S. debt ceiling today will pass today. However, stocks are down, which can have something to do with China, where the PMI index declined once again, and also faster than expected. Technically speaking, USD is in uptrend, but yields found some resistance recently so I am wondering if USD is possibly also going to have limited gains. Looking at DXY intraday chart we see nice recovery, but now in late stages of an impulse from May 04 so we are aware of a pullback, possibly will show up as we will get an outcome from the House vote, or USD can slow down later this week when we will get the US NFP data. But keep in mind that we will be tracking only a correction here on XXX/USD pairs and that more upside will be expected for the USD, once DXY makes three wave retracement.

IOTA Is Looking For A Bigger Recovery IOTA with ticker IOTUSD made an impulsive recovery into first leg (A)/(1) at the beginning of 2023 after we spotted a completed 5th wave at the end of 2023. It made a deeper decline recently, but it can be also trading in final stages of wave C of a higher degree A-B-C corrective drop within wave (B)/(2). However, to confirm support in place and further rally for wave (C) or (3) at least towards 0.30 area, we need to see a rebound back above trendline and 0.20 first bullish evidence level. Bullish confirmation is above 0.24 region, while invalidation level remains at 0.15.

Aussie Resumes An Impulsive Weakness Following a recent decline in US stock markets, the USD is showing signs of strength, with DXY trading at a new high. Fitch Ratings has placed the United States' AAA rating on a negative rating watch due to concerns regarding the debt ceiling negotiations. Fitch Ratings suggests that these negotiations have increased risk of the government potentially defaulting on certain financial obligations, so speculators sold stocks especially as a lot of investors will not take a risk and hold stocks through long weekend. Keep in mind that there is a holiday on Monday in US and some EU countries as well. This can trigger more weakness going into the end of the week, so USD can stay strong. Looking at the AUDUSD chart, we see nice ongoing weakness, now headed down for wave C which has room for further drop untill five waves down from 0.680 are done.

SP500 Makes "Failure" Break Higher; Now Short-term Weakness SP500 is making a sharp reversal, so it appears it was failure break higher after that overcrowded trade when everyone expected 4200 to be a major breakout point for the bull run. We also see USD still in bullish mode which can extend gains much higher now if stocks will be in risk-off mode. Looking at the SP500 price action, we see price falling below the trendline support so it seems that five wave rise from the March low is finished and that minimum three wave drop is in play. Big important level can be 4060/4070 which has been retested a few times in the last two months. Below that we have 4k, near 61.8% Fib.

Bitcoin Is Finishing A Corrective Decline Bitcoin with ticker BTCUSD made nice and clean A-B-C correction in the 4-hour chart as mentioned and highlighted. We can actually already see it trying to wake up from the first 26k support area, but to confirm a completed correction, we need to see a recovery back above channel resistance line and 29k region. Just in case if correction is still in progress, then next deeper support is at 25k-24k that can be tested within an ending diagonal (wedge) pattern for wave C according to count #2.

Broken Channel Support On EURUSD Can Cause Deeper Correction “USD is turning up vs EUR ahead the US debt-ceiling deadline. EURUSD pair breaking the trendline support“ The USD is higher while stocks are still somehow sideways. The reason for the higher USD can be optimism and speculation about US debt-ceiling. We expected that they will approve it, otherwise, this will cause a lot of damage on the financial market. Yellen has repeatedly warned that »failure by Congress to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt limit could spark a “constitutional crisis” and would unleash an economic and financial catastrophe for the U.S. and global economies”, as reported by Reuters. USD is trading higher with US yields, and it appears there can be more USD strength coming when looking at the EURUSD pair. From Elliott wave perspective, every five-wave impulse from lows/highs suggests a change in the trend, but most importantly, after every five waves there comes a three-wave correction. EURUSD has been trading higher as expected and reached a new 2023 high, where we still think that pair can have now a “temporary” failure break to the upside, which certainly can be the case as recovery seems to be slow and overlapping up from March 1.0517 low. So, latest leg up EURUSD from 1.0517 low, can be an ending diagonal in wave 5 of a higher degree five-wave bullish, which is also a very strong bullish reversal pattern. Now that EURUSD is turning down, we can also see the pair trying to break out of an important Elliott wave channel support line after a bearish divergence between highs of wave five and wave 3 which is usaully the case at an important top of an impulse. That said, we think that a higher degree correction can be underway now with next ideal support for the EURUSD this year visible at the former wave (4), 1.05 support area.

EURCAD Is Breaking The Trendline We covered EURCAD per request in our latest webinar here on trading view and mentioned that pair can be looking for a top after five waves up on a daily. So far, we can see nice reversal down on 4h as well, with five waves, with a current drop below the trendline support. As such, we think that more weakness can be seen within the current downtrend, especially after wave B rally. GH

DJIA Expected To Recover From 32500-32800 area Thats a nice pattern on DJIA; five up and now three down underway, so ideally more gains will come, but after wave C down that is still missing. We may see a bounce later this week from around 32500-32800 area.

Ethereum is approaching important 1700 level Hey traders, This is an update for ETHUSD which is still coming lower with cryptos beeing in a corrective phase. However, three waves down from 2141 can be approaching some key support for bulls near 1680/1700.

The wedge pattern on cable! Bears waking up? So far this year, Cable has made significant progress. However, the fifth wave’s potential for further growth appears limited due to its final leg within a higher degree impulse, as evident on the daily chart. Interestingly, there have been instances of sluggish price movement and overlaps around the 1.23 area. This prompts us to question whether this could be the fifth wave nearing resistance at 1.26/1.27, potentially forming an ending diagonal (wedge) pattern. These patterns often result in sharp reversals, so caution is advised for bullish traders, particularly considering the absence of buyers even on a “hawkish BoE” day. It is possible that speculators are losing hope for the Bank of England’s ability to curb inflation.