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ETH to The $300-400 Liquidity Zone Just making a short projection. I don't want to spend the time making any long posts at the moment, but I do want to provide some quick updates. My guess is the long term uptrend for ETH will break in the upcoming months, resulting in new bear market lows for Ethereum. I think there's a decent chance it'll enter that green zone on my chart. All my fundamental reasonings can be read in prior posts, though I will point out that there have been continuous, large ETH exchange inflows over the last couple weeks. I also believe ETH/BTC will begin to really break down soon after breaking its long term uptrend. Let's see what happens! Currently, ETH is resting on a recently broken downtrend from a falling wedge. In crypto, I find that falling wedges rarely result in sustained upside beyond a momentary false breakout. I think confirmation here will be if ETH breaks back into the wedge, closing below today's low. As always, this is not meant as financial advice, but for speculation and entertainment only. Thank you for reading! -Victor Cobra
ب.ظ 05:45 1402/02/18
Litecoin Shows The Way Down The Toilet LItecoin is currently barely holding onto the 200 day MA (teal), and has already retraced heavily from its pre-halving rally peak while failing to get back into the long term uptrend channel. In mid-2019, when LTC began breaking down that was the sign the market-wide relief bounce was over. Now, the environment is way worse. I'm not going to even bother deep-diving on what's happening with Bitcoin right now, but it just goes to show you that the tech is not adoptable and is very unlikely to save the general public, even if banks collapse. If banks collapse, we have a lot more to worry about than the next Bitcoin block. Litecoin is well below its long term uptrend on Bitfinex and failing to get back above a weekly death cross (YIKES). Let's see if Litecoin serves as a bellwether. My guess it LTC will head at least down to the $59-66 support zone again IF it starts closing below the 200 day MA here near $81. If the $59 level breaks, I think it'll start to see some new historic lows. Should Litecoin begins to really break down here, I expect Bitcoin to retrace back to the 200 day MA (near $22k), and ultimately break it to the downside. What I write is my opinion and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice.
ب.ظ 05:16 1402/02/18
BLX Still Shows A Broken Trend And Slower Growth For Bitcoin Zoomed in, you can see price is butting right up against that broken long term trendline, while the weekly oscillator is reaching the overbought zone. Price has also yet to reach the bottom of the curved channel (pink) The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs throughout the market turmoil, and specifically during the week of the SVB collapse. Even more perplexing is the huge drop off in volume as Bitcoin began to trade mostly sideways after that. Here's the Binance BTC/USDT chart as an example If Bitcoin is to touch the bottom of the curve on my BLX chart, we could see a retest of the $15.5k low at minimum. My guess is that Bitcoin will ultimately fall out of the growth curve and trend lower over time. I made a speculative downtrend channel, giving Bitcoin perhaps a few more weeks of sideways and a possible new failed high. Due to the nature of Bitcoin's support (in that it is essentially an idea), it is unlikely to drop instantly to zero, but instead trend lower and lower as people lose interest over time. Most still in the market seem to be bullish right now, already making projections for the next bull run. It's important to note that while SPX is still above 4000, Bitcoin is less than half of its all time high. Should traditional markets experience a more significant decline, I cannot imagine there would be enough liquidity to sustain another Bitcoin bull run. But....we live in strange times. It's perfectly possible that I'm completely off here. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my view for fundamental reasons. If Bitcoin continues onwards to a new all time high, I don't think it'll be accompanied by anything good...though I suppose that's part of the bullish Bitcoin thesis :) As always, this is my opinion only and should not be taken as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment.
ب.ظ 11:25 1402/02/10
Hey everyone, here's a quick video update. It looks like there's something wrong with Tradingview's screen record function, so it's possible the video will not show up. In that case, this will be audio only and there's not much I can do about it. Finally had some time today due to a light workload this week (gotta love religious holidays). In this video, I talk about DXY, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, and BNB. I hope you enjoy! This video is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice.
ب.ظ 04:31 1402/01/18
I'ts been a while! My posts will likely to continue to be sporadic, but I thought I'd share some thoughts on the current situation. I have a lot more to say, but my time is limited these days. So here it goes. I think it's become pretty clear that *if* crypto is the future of finance, Ethereum is not it. I feel like I've exhausted all my arguments as to why I think a future where cryptocurrencies are more prominent wouldn't necessarily be a good one, so I'll make this short and sweet. It does seem that the market found some support after the major bank debacles. I was thinking BTC could see a throwback to the $19.8k level before breaking $25k. This test seemed to be needed, and now we see prices not reflected in the charts for quite some time. I have actually been suggesting that Bitcoin could make a run towards $30k, but it had been taking so long to play out that I had all but given up on the idea. In one of my last posts I mentioned two things: 1) I did not think we had seen the last of the "black swan" events in crypto. CHECK 2) I did not think we had even seen the first major "black swan" event in traditional markets. CHECK. For this, I'm not including the Ukraine war, but what I meant is a more systemic problem, i.e. SVB. I've also mentioned numerous times that I thought CZ and Justin Sun would be the last ones to fall. Now, both are being officially investigated. All this has happened since my last posts. Even though both of these have come to pass, the market is actually making an attempt at a comeback. But how authentic is it? Liquidity continues to be restricted in the crypto world, and even CZ is feeling the heat. I was honestly surprised to not see a 100% bounce from the lows sooner - I expected a little more from the market. But this is has all been pretty slow-moving. Now, it appears there is an attempt at re-establishing a weekly and monthly uptrend. This attempt comes at a very precarious moment for the market - namely the downtrending of some important longer-term MA's. If this bounce falls apart soon, these trends will likely continue to solidify their downwards trajectory. All it takes is for Bitcoin to dump back to $20k, and that death cross starts to seem much more significant. It really needs to hold above the 200 week MA for a while to restore confidence. Bitcoin is only testing the $28.5k level, which was major support in 2021. Resistance here is expected - so let's see if it can push a bit higher towards the 100 week MA near $34k. In the short term, I'm watching Ethereum. I decided to title this post after ETH because I think we're at the phase where final distribution for alts is occurring. Throughout all of last year, Bitcoin dominance remained stubbornly low, which was a departure from the previous bear market. Only recently has ETH/BTC officially broken a major long term uptrend: The ETH/USD chart shows a new local low. It's a difficult time to trade, but I think a break below those orange trendlines could send it right back to the $1400 level. I also think a breakout above the resistance could lead to a false pump above $2k, which I do not think is likely to sustain due to the presence of constant sell volume in this range. On the weekly, a tap of the 100 MA (yellow) is possible for both BTC and ETH, but a large dump to new lows seems just as possible, with a weekly death cross (red over teal) looming. TL: DR: I'm watching for EITHER a final short squeeze manufactured by CZ and perhaps other entities with whom he's already cut deals. But, I'm not necessarily betting on the short squeeze as it could attract even more attention from regulators, especially if an attempt is made to siphon profits into other markets. The jig seems to be almost up, at least. I mean come on, CZ himself said he was pumping the market right before Bitcoin took off above $25k. You cannot make this up. As for Bitcoin's fundamentals...well, the banking crisis is a perfect opportunity to manufacture hope. "Maybe this is it! The moment we've all been waiting for!" Let's wait and see how it all plays out. Sure, maybe I'm wrong and I was initially right about crypto - that it was worth having at least some. I'll need a bit more to be convinced. The "hope" I mentioned above is really fear in disguise. I do not think a market driven almost entirely by fear is sustainable. Stick around in this market long enough, and perhaps you'll see what I mean. Anyway, as always this is not meant as financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Let's sit back and enjoy the show!
ق.ظ 01:14 1402/01/08
Hey everyone, here's my first update in 2 months. It's possible I'll have enough time to make a written update today as well. Although I mentioned in my last post that it would be my last update for a long time, it seems a "long time" merely means "just a couple of months." Kidding. I just couldn't resist sharing what my thoughts are about the current market structure. As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice.
ب.ظ 04:54 1401/11/14
This is going to be a long post, not only because it's a bit of a review of the writing I've done over my 4 years of participating on this site, but also because it will likely be my last post for a long time. So there will be a combination of numerous links to posts from the past as well as some reflective banter. Over the coming years, I think we will see some staggering changes in how our society functions, but hopefully also some changes in how our resources are allocated. I want to continue writing about it as it happens, but perhaps in a different format, maybe even a different medium altogether. The next material I publish will likely be the book I've been writing since 2019. There are some ideas I throw around in there that are an extension of a lot of the work I’ve done here on TradingView, but there is plenty I haven’t shared yet. Please reach out to me directly if you want to stay updated about that, as I have a small mailing list. For now, I'm letting go of this obsessive and time-consuming hobby to refocus on some other things, such as art, fiction, and my mental health work. I’m already finding that there’s much more room in my brain without updating my charts every hour. This is mostly meant to be a reflection on my work on TradingView. I’m honestly pretty proud of it, even though there were certainly some missed calls and things that have not played out. I think part of investing and trading successfully involves accepting both the randomness and synchronicity within the universe. I wonder if our terms “positive” and “negative” are better utilized through the lens of understanding them as reactions to apparent randomness and synchronicity. I could go on about that, but I’ll save those thoughts for another time. These next two paragraphs are taken from my first “year in review” post, from October, 2019: Aside from attempting to understand the movements of the cryptocurrency market, I also write a lot of fiction. Sometimes analysis feels like science fiction, because I'm making an effort to predict the most likely outcome, based entirely on how my imagination reacts to various pieces of information. It's a creative process for me - one that often involves searching for signals that others may have overlooked. Having just read Ursula K. Le Guin's Introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, I was reminded of how great fiction writers are really also just great liars, whose goals are to illustrate some sort of truth. That's really all I'm trying to do with my analysis–––figure out the truth. There are many competing narratives out there. Ultimately, the true outcome will probably be some synthesis of all these narratives, because it seems to me that humanity tends to move in a unified direction based on increasingly global methods of communication. Now, whether or not what I've written over the past year exemplifies any sort of truth is up for the reader/observer to decide. It's not necessarily the correctness of the analysis that makes it worthwhile for me. It's the process of figuring it out, which allows me to understand both myself and others on a deeper level. The same goes for writing fiction. But what I find really interesting is that price action is something that can tell us a lot about our collective belief in something. What I'm trying to figure out is if humanity's collective belief in cryptocurrencies will sustain and grow, and whether or not these developments will play a significant role in shaping our future. Crypto analysis is science fiction. Anyone who tells you otherwise is probably delusional. But that's my point. We all have our own delusions, some of which are shared. THE BEGINNING OF MY CRYPTO JOURNEY In today’s post, I’m starting from the very beginning. My hope is that some of you can relate to my experience and my learning process. I also hope to illustrate the change in mindset, as I started as a crypto investor at the age of 24. Now I'm almost 30 years old, and there have been palpable changes in my outlook - not only towards crypto, but towards life and my relationship with myself. In November, 2017, a friend of mine first told me about Bitcoin . I had already been going through a bit of an existential crisis and feeling that society was moderately doomed. This was the perfect time to introduce me to an alternative currency. My friend said something like, "It's about to break $10,000 and once that happens, it'll probably go to $20,000. You could double your money and get out." Okay, so what? I had heard of Bitcoin before. I knew what it was meant to be, but I had no idea it had become so valuable within my two years of knowing about it. So, I did a little "research" and what I found was something that seemed to align with my doomer societal collapse mindset. Of course it was easy for me to distrust banks after growing up during the Great Recession. I decided it may be worth it to ultimately park half my savings into crypto to hedge against a possible bank collapse and the decimation of the dollar. I hardly thought of it as an investment, but more as an escape. Unfortunately, due to delayed bank processing I wasn't able to buy at $10k, and instead bought near $13k. Because of my impatience, I started looking at coins that were cheaper and seemed to be increasing in value at a faster rate. Litecoin, XRP, and ADA were my first altcoins. I remember thinking of buying Litecoin at $100 and then watching it skyrocket to $300-400 in days. I also remember thinking of buying XRP at $0.20 before seeing it go to $3. For both, I bought high. Then there was RaiBlocks (now Nano ). I bought at $12, watched it go to $30+ and rode it all the way down to $0.70 over the following year. Then, my friend turned out to be right. Bitcoin went straight to $20k. But I did not get out. Instead, I thought it meant something - that a revolution was occurring right before my eyes. I thought a mass-exodus from banks and the USD was imminent. I wondered if I had made a mistake, so I turned to analysis and TradingView to try and figure out whether or not I had truly messed up, or whether with enough patience and fortitude I could come out ahead. It was not the greed that initially attracted me to crypto. It was the fear I was missing out on a massive financial revolution. I didn’t want to be left behind. In the end, it turns out that greed is really fear in disguise. Here is one of my first bottom calls for Bitcoin , back in 2019. This was shortly after I joined TradingView, but many months after I had already been following analysts on here, such as MagicPoopCannon and Botje11. Haven’t seen much of them these days. And all the while, I continued to write about a mania period for stocks that I thought could result in a period similar to the Great Depression, all based on one fractal: Thankfully, I had a plan for crypto. I wanted to sink half my savings at MOST, but I only put in about 1/6th at first. I dollar-cost-averaged throughout 2018 and into the first couple months of 2019. I often hated myself for it, because things just kept dropping. I had to come to terms with the fact that this potential financial revolution may not pan out, so I decided to find a career that aligned with both my values and my needs: Mental health. I did not have an easy time getting there. I started planning this career step in the middle of 2019, around the time I called the top at $13.8k. Projects I had the highest hopes for continued to fade into borderline obscurity, even as Bitcoin seemed to be trying to recover. Yet, I was convinced we'd see at least one more run and it was going to be bigger than the first. With this, I also expected altcoins like Ethereum to perform better when measured from the bottom, which ended up being correct. While almost everyone was calling for 80%+ Bitcoin dominance and the end of ETH, I was thinking the opposite: IDEALIZATION I had an idealistic view: I wanted to see some real change in the world due to these cryptocurrencies, and I hoped that the community element and its "decentralized" nature would usher us into a more utopian financial future. Even looking at the below chart, where I compared crypto market growth with Amazon stock, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched, even today. In fact, it almost looks right on track, although Amazon never retreated to below its previous all-time high, unlike Bitcoin . But is this still possible? I continue to remain extremely skeptical unless we see some positive impact on the world. We know from the recent bull market that there have been far more negative outcomes from crypto investments than positive. For the most part, it has been money sucked into a black hole. But perhaps there doesn’t have to be a net positive. My position is now that should Bitcoin try to make new highs, it won’t result in anything good, and it won’t be the result of anything good for humanity either. Throughout the last 5 years, I did not think it would be likely to see any crypto revolution unless traditional markets completely collapsed. Here is why: THE REVOLUTION THAT WASN'T I was hoping the pandemic would be the prime opportunity for people across the world and across the United States to come together against a common enemy. And perhaps even, it would become a time where cryptocurrencies became more popular. After the March 2020 crash, I continued to remain bullish , even calling a move straight to $10-12k in April. Due to a friend suggesting I check out the chart, I made a post by request on GameStop, in January of 2021. I speculated about a short squeeze, and as we all know it went much higher than probably anyone was expecting. I never bought because fundamentally, I never really liked GameStop, even though I bought from them as a kid. I just remember them virtually stealing a bunch of my used games, as they took them for a tiny fraction of what I paid for them. I also made a follow-up post after the squeeze calling the top, with some comments: It wasn’t until 2021 that I started to develop a more critical (and cynical) lens towards the crypto market in the current socioeconomic context. Some of it had to do with the meme stock craze. For part of the year, I remained cautiously bullish , even calling a bottom during the summer. This was my first post on TradingView to be featured on the front page. It was correct, in the short-term. Calling the bear trap: I was still bullish through the end of the summer into the fall, thinking we’d see perhaps one final manic rally across markets before a financial meltdown. I made wrote some bullish articles that turned out to be incorrect, such as this one: I also started making some posts speculating about when the debt bubble could burst, and why cash might begin to be more in demand. This was before the major breakout for DXY . Here is another post about the debt bubble, from Oct. 2021: I remained unsure about the timeframe, but…. THE END OF MY ENTHUSIASM Shortly thereafter, I began speculating about an end to the party. This was due to a number of factors: 1) I noticed that projects with the best utility for transferring value at low-cost were not doing well pricewise. Ethereum was booming, but it had become extremely expensive to transfer. The ETH boom coincided with the NFT bubble (and it was clearly a bubble). I noticed the high fees people were willing to pay, just to get their hands on digital trading cards. Meanwhile, meme coins were doing extraordinarily well. The more useless something was, the better. When LoopRing ( LRC ) boomed in the fall of 2021, that was it for me, especially since it was clear price manipulation off the back of partnership news with GameStop (a terrible company that has taken advantage of games for decades). None of this seemed particularly revolutionary to me, but more of a practical joke that could end at any moment. Here’s my bearish post on LRC where I nailed the top and suggested extremely low prices: 2) High yields. Too good to be true, and we all know how that has ended. 3) Michael Saylor. Just doing a little research into the guy’s history told me he’s not someone to trust. 4) Super bowl ads, followed by massive price drops. When something dumps on massive exposure like this, it means price is only determined by speculation, not real-world usage or value. The speculators from 2017-2019 were rewarded, since crypto gained mass-media and corporate attention. But is there any higher to go? Not guaranteed. 5) The failure of the experiment in El Salvador. I also noticed that each time El Salvador or Michael Saylor bought, price would drop. Again, this only happens with an asset based purely on speculation. Beginning in December of 2021, I wrote about my concern about various projects. First, I wrote about why the market seemed to be entering a precarious position: Then, in January, I made the decision to let go of most of my crypto and get out of the market. Here is my first bearish post: Loopring has dropped 90% since my post about it. DOT has dropped 80% since I posted the chart: I even got this relief rally in March-April, 2022 precisely correct. More reflections on the asset bubble and why I think it is unlikely for Bitcoin to sustain new highs again from here. I wrote about risk for Microstrategy stock and Bitcoin price here: And I even called the top for LUNA well in advance of its total collapse to near-zero: WHAT NOW? Now, we’re in a position where the crypto market itself has all but collapsed and been revealed to be hardly more than smoke and mirrors, yet arguably the stock market still “looks” strong. You can read why I have taken the view that Bitcoin is unlikely to outperform the stock market again if you look through my posts from the last year, some of which are linked at the bottom. We all know the crypto utopia is not what happened, but yes, I was right that crypto would have at least one more bull market, and I made enough money from it to at least not be terribly worried about my student loans But honestly, I’m not sure if I even made enough to make it worth all the hours sunk into this madness. It didn’t become the revolution I had hoped, and I don’t think it is inherently designed to do so. Instead, I started to notice some things that made me take a step back and think more practically. Was the idea of a financial revolution merely being sold to unwitting consumers for profit? Who exactly is even in charge of this market? I don’t know how long this could take, but my speculation is that eventually these will be the last big players to fall before crypto returns to simply a niche market without much usage. Right now in my small stock portfolio I’ve got: MJ and MSOS – Making an assumption that although the weed market is rife with oversupply, the industry will figure itself out and be able to generate profit eventually. Currently I think these are at discounted levels but of course I could be wrong. Oddly, I’m not even in the red on these since I bought so low. URA and URNM – making a nuclear bet. One of the most widely accepted forms of “renewable” energy, and it’s gotten a lot safer over the years. CYBIN – speculative psilocybin play, for the mental healthcare industry. This company may go under due to quickly depleting cash reserves and large regulatory hurdles. LYTS – a lighting company. I expect energy to become cheaper as time goes on and we find more innovative ways to deal with it. A lighting company could profit from this. ACB – A cannabis moonshot, pretty small bet. XYIGY – a glass company. Glass is needed for solar panels. Glass is useful. SHECY– Shin-Etsu Chemical. They deal with rare earth materials and magnets. As you can see, I’m a materials guy. No fluff. Over the years I’ll probably want to still partially manage my own portfolio. I can see myself becoming too annoyed by it or burdened by it and delegating that task to someone else. But I might honestly be too prideful for that. If I were one of the seven deadly sins, I’d definitely be pride. Regardless of my own shortcomings and the mistakes I’ve made, I’m still looking forward to sharing the things I’ve learned and observed in my little book. But for now, I bid TradingView goodbye. I may post again in the future, but it could be some months until I decide to take a close look at these charts again. Thank you so much to everyone who has provided encouragement to me throughout the years, and to TradingView for featuring some of my work since 2021. This has been the first platform where many people have read my content and shown appreciation. I think it’s given me more confidence to put my real self out there. Until next time. -Victor Cobra
ق.ظ 04:13 1401/09/14
It's been some time since I last posted a video. You may notice a slight difference in my appearance. In this video I cover the ETH/BTC ratio and its "surprising" stability. I also talk about target levels for a breakdown, should it occur for ETH. I also briefly mention Litecoin, along with an even more brief mention of TRX and BNB - a couple other coins I've been following. Thanks for watching! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
ق.ظ 12:33 1401/08/30
Well, here we are. After months of frustrating action for traders, Bitcoin has finally given a sizable move. Not too long ago, I had just begun to see the possibility of a bigger relief rally for the largest cryptocurrency. This was due to some technical developments, coupled with the lack of bad news in the crypto market. Granted, I had no intention of purchasing any and still do not. So, my instincts regarding the fundamentals for this market have saved me some extreme losses. For this entire year, I've been writing about why I do not think the fundamentals of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies make sense. The vast majority of my posts have been extremely bearish . Many of those posts are linked below. It seemed as though I was just going along with the prevailing sentiment. Yet, my feelings have only become more validated as the year has worn on. When something does not produce an output, and when something lacks usage outside of holding, transferring, and trading, it is subject to speculation - and speculation only. Without a material purpose, an asset like this is easy to manipulate. The question is - would it still be wise to buy Bitcoin from an investing standpoint? Since money is a somewhat abstract concept, the narrative around Bitcoin and crypto can be warped to fit the intended audience; whether it's empowerment for marginalized/oppressed populations and financial access for the unbanked (political left) or the distrust of big government/big banks (libertarian right), Bitcoin's got a spin for everyone. Or should I say, everyone with the means to access it in the first place. When we saw what happened with El Salvador, that was my "AHA!" moment. No one wants this garbage. People invested in crypto expecting to say F-U to the big banks and avoid a bank run. But here's a very genuine bank run, staring us in the face. The White Knight is a Wolf in Sheep's Clothing Enter the snake oil salesmen, as we like to call them. You may know them by name: Sam Bankman-Fried, Do Kwon, and Changpeng Zhao. We call them snake oil salesmen because their entire business runs on selling something that is virtually useless. And my theory is that they know it. Just today, Binance transferred an enormous amount of USD stablecoins out of their exchange. My guess CZ (Binance) and Justin Sun (Tronix) are somehow using their stablecoins BUSD and USDD to manufacture "infinite" money. They extract capital from traders/investors through these unregulated stablecoins and then swap these unregulated stablecoins for more "legitimate" stablecoins such as USDC and even USDT, financing the grandest counterfeiting scheme the world has ever seen, and the first instance of broader DIGITAL counterfeiting. Since this has been a theory of mine for a while (remember, it is only a theory), it came as no surprise to see CZ appear as a "white knight," eliminating the next "bad" player from the crypto market. In taking down SBF, perhaps he bought himself a little time to extract a bit more liquidity from the market. Greed knows no bounds. My theory is that eventually it will all come crashing down. But maybe this is just extreme thinking. It doesn't seem so extreme after what just happened. Now, what about the technicals??? Are there any technicals left for Bitcoin??? Well, we have a bounce. The better than expected CPI numbers have sent markets rallying, yet Bitcoin is still substantially lower than it was yesterday morning. Just check out its performance against SPX . This is a chart I show frequently, but I think it illustrates something important: It shows that equity markets can very well just continue onwards without Bitcoin . The biggest setback for crypto with this FTX disaster is that SBF was a liaison of sorts between U.S. regulators and the shitcoin casino. Lying in the face of the government as the face of an industry will likely leave yet another stain on this market, and perhaps one that is impossible to get out. Yes, I think it is that bad. For those who say, "But no, it's just shitcoins that are in trouble! Not Bitcoin! There will be a new all-time high eventually so buy now while it's cheap!" well....we can clearly see from this last cycle - the average person cares little about Bitcoin itself other than as a speculative investment, and it is now trading below its previous all-time high. The longer Bitcoin stays low, the more likely events like these will continue to occur as there is no bailing out these crypto kingpins, and even the mass production of stablecoins can't keep up with a liquidity crisis. Even back before the LUNA fiasco, I suggested events like these seemed likely. To move up from here, Bitcoin will need to attract buyers, not sellers here above $17.6k (previous bottom from June). It will also need to hold back above the previously broken downtrend. This trendline has some wiggle room (it's not totally precise), but you can see that breaking back below it yesterday caused a significant selloff. The next major support level lies near $13.8k - the high from 2019. The $12.5-13.8k zone has a huge amount of historical traded volume . This area seems like it has already been fron-run by traders, given the size of the current bounce from $15.5k to now near $18k. During the initial bounce, USDT de-pegged momentarily as much as 3% and funding became extremely negative for futures , since liquidity dried up instantly as prices went below $16k. If price ventures down there again, I would expect price to get a bit closer to that $13.8k level, and perhaps it would put some stress on those bigger stablecoins and exchange futures funding. But, if Bitcoin can get back above $19.8k soon with decent volume , perhaps the medium-term bottom is indeed in. I just don't see it very likely for crypto prices to sustain higher levels in the future, even if they go up again in the short-medium term. What a time to be observing and participating in financial markets! It's certainly an amazing lesson in economics and human psychology. Thank you for reading, and for taking part in this journey with me. As always, this is not meant as financial advice, but for speculation and entertainment only. Please consult a licensed professional financial advisor before making any significant financial decisions. This piece represents my opinion only, and there are plenty of others out there. -Victor Cobra
ب.ظ 09:14 1401/08/19
This is just a thought here - although this appears to be a never-ending downtrend, I wonder if this on-balance volume divergence signals something. This shows that buyers are willing to step in here a bit more aggressively than the previous "bottom," as shown by higher OBV despite lower prices - even though OBV has declined overall since its peak. We're also seeing higher OBV in general since 2021, which could signify aggressive accumulation despite continued decline in value. This sort of behavior can be seen throughout the cannabis industry. ACB is roughly 98-99% down from its all-time high. Not that it could ever get back up there, but I think at least a return to the $6-7 range is possible over the coming months. However, since the downtrend has technically not ended, there is still significant risk of continuation to the downside. Seems worth a speculative gamble though, as per my last stock analysis and being "strategic." Overall, I'm only down 12% on stocks since I started investing slowly since last year. Not too bad, considering how far down big tech has tumbled. That's probably because I've stayed away from big tech, and been pretty careful about investing too much in weed stocks, at least until prices started to get obscenely low. I also managed to stabilize my portfolio by investing in Uranium ETF's, which helped a bit. -Victor Cobra
ب.ظ 03:31 1401/08/13
هر محتوا و مطالب مندرج در سایت و کانالهای رسمی ارتباطی سهمتو، جمعبندی نظرات و تحلیلهای شخصی و غیر تعهد آور بوده و هیچگونه توصیهای مبنی بر خرید، فروش، ورود و یا خروج از بازار بورس و ارز دیجیتال نمی باشد. همچنین کلیه اخبار و تحلیلهای مندرج در سایت و کانالها، صرفا بازنشر اطلاعات از منابع رسمی و غیر رسمی داخلی و خارجی است و بدیهی است استفاده کنندگان محتوای مذکور، مسئول پیگیری و حصول اطمینان از اصالت و درستی مطالب هستند. از این رو ضمن سلب مسئولیت اعلام میدارد مسئولیت هرنوع تصمیم گیری و اقدام و سود و زیان احتمالی در بازار سرمایه و ارز دیجیتال، با شخص معامله گر است.