RealMacro

SOLUSD breaking Key Area Solana maybe be breaking a key area here for a bigger move up. I am not a big fan of price breaking a line in of it self is a automatics buy. But it is the time to start paying attention for a good risk reward setup.

US Federal Tax Receipts Declining Bad JuJu? Tax revenues in the past were a good indicator for a recession. However after the massive $10 trillion of added public debt loans $9 trillion in QE increasing the money supply by 43% this indicator may be correcting for distortion rather than giving us an actual valid economic signal. However we should keep an eye on it as it is heading in the wrong direction. If tax revenues continue to fall it obviously means the economy is earning, producing and spending less. Thus Earnings per share will suffer as result along with the entire stock market.

TMUS Bulls Don't Want This Key Area to Break Bulls certainly don't want this key area to break. While QQQ has risen of late the rest of the markets have not. Particularly value stocks have been underperforming vs growth. Unless we see that trend reverse we are left with two basic options. Value will start to outperform to the upside or Growth will start to correct to the downside faster. What does that mean for TMUS? Either TMUS will bounce here and the overall value stocks start outperform growth. OR! Growth will start to correct harder relative to value and TMUS continues to break lower.

OIL & OPEC Cuts OPEC cuts lead to lower oil, not higher oil prices. That is why they are cutting. If Global demand was there they would not be cutting they would be selling as much as they can at higher prices. I see too many people get this backward.

Nasdaq to World Stock Market Cap Indexed The Nasdaq is now at the highest level relative to the World Stock Market Cap since the 2000 Dot Com days. We are now in Euphoria land. Price is what you pay value is what you get.

NVDA - AI Is The New Dot Com I don't know where to start. I will say up front I have always liked NVDA. Great company, a monopoly and consistently making great products. I am a gamer. (Yes believe it or not!) So I have always been partial to NVDA. Having said that! I don't like the stock at any price, any economy, or in any market. Yes there is a great future in store for NVDA but to me it is over valued. I am sorry my fellow NVDA brothers and sister. I have the benefit of seeing the bigger picture in economy (domestic and international), the broader markets (same) and as an investor rather than a trader or a DG piker. My views are as follows "Price is what you pay value is what you get relative to inflation, bond yield, and currency" Simply put looking at these numbers and what was reported today NVDA is NOT worth $1 trillion. that does not mean it may not be worth that much some day. Not the same thing. If someone asked me today do you want to own NVDA or a 1 year bond? I would buy the bond at 5% yield rather than NVDA 12 mo. forward 1.5% Yield. Can NVDA soar higher? Sure it could, "markets can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent". I got that shirt! THX! Having said all that a year from now I will be up 5% guaranteed! I would take that investment any day of the week if offered. RULE #1 don't lose money Rule 2... Rule #1 I personally could not care less if NVDA doubled in 6 months! I would not lose a minute of sleep over it. To me there are much better trades out there rather than FOMO NVDA. Now as for the charts and my recent posts. 1. A short never triggered THANK GOD! :P 2. Price crossing of a line ("support") does not mean jack! I have always said that and I hope this proves my point as to why that is. 3. Just bc price blew right by previous high does not mean it is not a double top. 4. The Market wanted a HERO! and it got one. But being a hero is the world's shortest lived job generally speaking. maybe I will be wrong. 5. AI is NOT a new technology. CHAT GPT is only new to the masses! To them it is "NEW". Like a child that just discovered a ball and how much fun it can be. NEW! Therefore I am classifying AI the new DOT.COM Bubble and NVDA from this valuation and higher the new MEME STOCK! CAUTION!!!!

Home Prices To Household Income Peaked I posted this chart back in Jan 2023 but for some reason, it failed to update properly. So I am reposting this chart in a more simple form in hopes it updates in the future. Home prices to median household income have hit new highs at 7.8 times and peaked out. The ratio is now rolling over and it seems very abrupt relative to previous tops. But unlike previous tops rates did not rise as fast and high. Kind of obvious. I also cautioned people of a double top in home prices inflation adjusted back in April when it double topped. I again cautioned that Home Price to Rent ratio also doubled topped.

Public Debt Has Led Us To A Sick Economy Endless trillion of money printing has been ongoing for a long time now. The dangers of this has been the normalization in people's minds that it is somehow natural, good, simulative and healthy. As the charts shows in reality it has never been so unnatural, bad, surprising and unhealthy. During this time we have given a voice to crazy economists (Ie #MMT) that have made a careers running around telling people we need more of the same. False profits with promises of riches is as old as prostitutions. I hope this chart tickles your curiosity just enough to make a difference.

CEW Emerging Market Currency Devaluation Continues Self explanatory. Emerging markets currencies keep printing in excess leading to devaluation for over 12 years straight. Needless to say it is now at a key area. (Red Arrow) While it has not been talked about much. This has led to a mini emerging market currency crisis. Turkey Sri Lanka Lebanon Pakistan Argentina Venezuela Egypt Russia Colombia etc.. Adding zeros to money does not produce value for a currency. I find it bizarre that I even have to say it. But in this crazy world where #MMT runs around telling people "don't worry how you will pay for it" "Deficits are a Myth" and "there is no such thing as debt only assets" Some people have gotten confused as to what reality is and now believe they can vote themselves money.

GOLD XAUUSD Bulls Don't Want To See This Fail Gold bulls after several attempts to push higher appear to be failing. Gold is now in danger of breaking down from a key area. While price within the channel is still considered bullish. Breaking it could lead to much lower prices. Caution is in order.