Paul_Varcoe

Here's something I prepared earlier in the year. I still think this is valid, though it is six weeks old. Last week I published this. It's up 25% since then. Not bad, eh? Please beware of the perma-bulls. It is all to easy to go off early, because it's exciting. This bullish action simply helps to confirm that we are likely accumulating, NOT that the accumulation is over. Some REALLY IMPORTANT things to remember: Patience is important. It's all too easy to believe NOW is the time. Wyckoff teaches us to judge it better. It is all a game. I showed in this post how easy it is for big players to manipulate the price. If you understand the rules (I do and they do) then it makes it easier. The safe way is DCA. If you want to leverage it, then wait for the next drop. How low will it go? I am not a clairvoyant, but if it gets as low as 16-17k, where everyone like you would love to buy it, then a wick is all you are likely to get. It is A GAME, AND THEY KNOW WHAT YOU WANT TO HAPPEN.

The Composite Operator. "…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it." Most market people tend to scoff at the idea that there is some kind of illuminati running the markets. They say "you're never bigger than the market". I will just deal with one piece of evidence, in the image cap. Just 2204 accounts, a lot of which are owned by the same people, CONTROL 41.87% of the supply. =============================================== So, even if you don't think the Composite Operator exists, you have to admit that it is very definitely doable, isn't it? They could use just 10% of that to push the price where they want, like water in the bath. Give it a bit of a shove when it is running nicely, stop and reverse when they know it's right. If they don't know how, I could show them. In fact, call me guys, I'm open to offers. Read this next: Follow me for more, please. Get the right side of the trade.

That got your attention, didn't it? While it IS coming, we don't mean right now this week. This sort of post always gets people's attention. There are lots of them like it at present, and we are all only human. It is very difficult to ignore visual stimulus like this, but you simply have to if you are going to survive in the trading world. The world was full of FUD and negative posts when BTC was $16k. How strange! The influencers simply reinforce whatever belief they think you have. At the bottom you were miserable and so they told you it was "all over for bitcoin" (thanks Carl). Now you are happy and they are feeding THAT feeling instead. They just want you to trade. If you make accounts and trade, they make money! Myself and @Mayfair_Ventures have predicted almost all of this. Look here This is Lewis's series of predictions. All drawn from logic and not cherry picked. We don't take videos and ideas down, so you can browse any of them. Please just listen to logic. Follow @Mayfair_Ventures as well if you haven't already. He will comment on Bitcoin later. Have a read when he does, but buying it here will NOT be what he recommends...

This is how influencers make loads of money. I am just using this one as an example, because I know them the best. They are probably not the worst one. Step 1. Make it look like you are mega rich and successful, basically make sheeple aspire to be you so that they forget logic and reality. Step 2. Open your mouth really wide. I have NO idea why this works but they all do it. Lazily copy the same image many times. Mirror image is fine. Step 3. Make it seem like you have to act RIGHT NOW! Use buzzwords that new traders have heard of, like Golden Cross. Step 4. Exaggerate the tiniest move. When Bitcoin is flying, encourage buying, because that's what sheeple want to hear. It triggers their greed. When the price is in the toilet, encourage them to sell, because that triggers their fear. Step 5. If your analysis turns out to be wrong, remove the video or change its name. (I have proof, before you ask) Step 6. Have affiliate links with brokers and exchanges so that every time someone deposits you get a massive cut, as the exchanges know sheeple are going to lose as soon as they start. Don't forget that 90% of new traders lose 90% in 90 days. The exchange knows this, and can pay you half of the deposit if it wants to, and still make money. Step 7. Profit from the affiliate links and the YouTube views. No need to trade. Even shill a coin that you create. Easy money. It's all in the marketing team. Don't be sheeple, people. Listen to logic. There is still likely to be a long time before this plays out. We are bullish of BTC , but we want to wait for confirmation, not just buy every 5% rally and sell every 5% drop. We have been saying that this is the value area for months. If you have been listening, then you have averaged your purchases below like 28k, and you are in cash with no margin. Trading BTC on margin is a bit of a mug's game. Too easy to get wicked out. 28k may sound high as a starting point, given the low, but it sure ain't 35k or 45k or 67k like the influencers recommended. I am long at around 22k on average and happy with it. We expect another visit to 30K but probably also 18k or lower, just to iron out all those who got excited since January, and make them feel sad enough to sell. If you have any ammunition left, save it for the next drop, or wait for confirmation and buy it higher. Less reward but a LOT less risk. These price movements are good signs, but it is EARLY IN THE PROCESS Patience is a hard skill. Good luck. Stop listening to these people. Calm down.

At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all over for Bitcoin . They are basically marketers not traders. They market for Buybit or Bitget or whoever. They make a lot of money when someone like you puts money into an exchange account. Now, turning to logic: Look at the chart, especially at the volume , which tells us a story, which I have marked. There is also the psychological story. Lots of you are nursing nasty red bags from the last consolidation around $30,000. You would love it to get there so you can get out. PSA: That's why it won't get there this time. Maybe next time, possibly after you have given up and sold your position after the next drop. All the price has done is pierce a succession of stop-loss levels to ping out the shorts who sold lower down, believing the negative press and the chat from exactly the same people who are now saying it is going up. I reckon one more pop up to the next level just north of $25,000, then a slow melting away, with you buying every dip. Patience is a virtue. It's hard to be patient I know. Hang on, this is a MONTHLY structure and this is still the beginning of the accumulation, not the end. We will tell you when we think it is the end.

For those of you that have been following me and @Mayfair_Ventures there is nothing new yet apart from more evidence that our picture is correct. The Monthly and Weekly Elliott Waves shown are unchanged. We know that technically the Monthly is broken, but as we are not religious fundamentalist Elliotticians we don't mind. The new data we see in this picture is the high volume week (the highest ever) and the accumulation visible in Commitments of Traders data, seen in our CoT tool below. These two facts are new evidence of the big players accumulating ready for the next bull market in Crypto. For us, this is the start of the process, which may have some months to play out. It's just nice to see some more signs supporting our theory. Don't use margin to get long here. We expect further bumps in the road, and there will be more and higher probability opportunities along the way. If you are long cash like I am, then you can't get stopped out, and this new evidence gives confidence to add to longs as we get dips in the coming months. You can get the CoT tool for free by going to our website, and clicking "GET A FREE INDICATOR". CoT data is released weekly in arrears, so it's great for picking up long term changes in trends like this. Short-term we expect a series of rallies to clear out the shorts and get crypto twitter buzzing, followed by another dump to catch all the Youtube/ Twitter influencers and their orbiters with their pants down. This market doesn't give anyone a smooth ride. Once everyone has given up, then it's rally time. Stay calm. I'm calm because I'm already long down here and can't get margin calls.

Here is a link to my partner's post on the same thing: I have made my post shorter, but added direct links to the predictions he has made, so you can read how right he has been over a very long time. If you can be bothered to click each one, then you will learn a LOT about how institutionalised markets work. We at Mayfair bang on about what institutional involvement in Bitcoin actually means. Most people think it means BTC goes up. This is not the case at all. Most of you will realise this now, but sadly at the time we were ignored. In fact, what the big players do is know your psychology very well indeed, and they exploit you to get the profits they want. The chart shows your group psychology, and the stages are taken from the Wall Street Cheat Sheet You are: (A) Being manipulated and (B) The architects of your own destiny, because it's only human to react the way you do. Have a look at the @Mayfair_Ventures posts I have chronicled on the chart, and see how good the calls are. They are great calls, because we understand the psychology, and we actively change our own to match that of the big players. The pressure for all crypto holders to sell is insane now. Mental pressure, being applied by the big boys. Because they know what you are like. Most of you know I have bought BTC on a DCA strategy aiming at a 3-year return, using spot not margin. This was so I can ride out lows like these. I'm keeping mine. When you are short at the top and it's going against you, it always goes further than you ever thought it could, and the news is always blazingly good. It's the same thing. Take a look at my post on news here: We will be doing a big year-end review stream in a week or two, where you can tune in and get shown how to change your mindset to the winning side. Look out for it.

I have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently. You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah.... I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out. Do a memory check with me. When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin? Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably). Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC . I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.) There are three possible reasons for this. 1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge. 2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING. 3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers. Are you beginning to see how it all fits together? The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end. So, how do I look at news? 1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards. 2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading. 3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold , and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them. If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job. So, what to do? 1. Trade on Price Action only. 2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on, 3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC , despite huge negative headlines. Once again, repeat after me: You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION!

Trading is supposed to be exciting, and it can be. To be successful trading long-term, you need to utterly crush that impulse for daily excitement. Replace it by the lovely feel of banking larger profits on a monthly basis. Look at the BTC chart above. It took 78 days for the weekly to break out of its accumulation pattern to start the 4-5 move. Here we are sitting in what I believe to be a monthly accumulation, and everyone gets excited when it moves a couple of thousand dollars either way. Get real. Even if we take the area around 30k as the start of the accumulation, we still have no reason to expect a surge any time soon. Be patient. Wait for confirmation if you have bullets left in the gun. Don't expect every single move to be "THE ONE". Nine times out of 10 it won't be. Be patient, when the break comes, look for a retest and confirmation of the change of character. Once confident, you can play the game in decent size with a good feeling. We are still bullish at these levels. If Crypto-Twitter is calling 12k, then do you really expect that to happen?

In my last post I mentioned that I needed confirmation before I add to my BTC long. I noticed that we hadn't gone into the lower half of the consolidation, and I wanted to see that first before I could have confidence that the time was right. It turns out that we went right through the bottom and we have peak FUD. We also hit the Elliott Wave Invalidation level from 2017 on the Monthly plot. At this point I have added to my long. So my DCA is now at a good point, well inside the value area. The ultimate sophisticated trader's question tends to be the same: Do I buy here at what seems right now to be an optimum price, or do I SACRIFICE some potential profit and wait for better confirmation? If we had merely explored the 24-26 level again, then I would have waited. Instead we have gone straight through to where I expected the Elliott Wave C to come. This is an excellent price unless Crypto is dead. Crypto Twitter is bearish , MoonBois are bearish , the news is bearish ..... It IS more risky to do this, but I am weighing up the probabilities and ignoring the fear generated in my lizard brain. This is a good level. Really good. We have thought this for a long time, and we were calm when we worked it out. So I put in the last of my BTC allocation. Now to wait for a few weeks.