MCOldBoys

Bitcoin's Bear Market Honey Pots (Sweet Spot) I am not one to try "catch a knife" but if we can use this information to recognise a trend reversal and shift in the market, identifying an opportune time to accumulate Sats in what I refer to as the Foundation Zone, on which we can build our generational wealth. What we have here is looking at Bitcoin's Bear markets from 3 different lenses. Block Rewards, Time before halvenings and lastly an Indicator (Gaussian Channel on the weekly timeframe) in which price falls below during each market draw down. Each cycle after we peak, and head towards a "crypto winter" we see Bitcoin act a similar way. Lets breakdown each chart in order. Chart 1 - Block Rewards Every halving cycle is measured by the amount of block rewards given to miners. A total of 210,000 Blocks is mined, before the rewards are cut in half. Zone 1: 0-26,250 Zone 2: 26,251-52,500 Zone 3: 52,501-78,750 Zone 4: 78,751-105,000 Zone 5: 105,001-131,250 Zone 6: 131,251-157,500 Zone 7: 157,501-183,750 Zone 8: 183,751-210,000 Each zone roughly takes around 25 weeks. Generally Zone 5 & 6 are the zones where the Bitcoin enters its Bear Market with the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator flashing during these two zones. Alerting us to the fact that the bottom may be in and the trend is about to shift. Side note: The last 3 cycles Bitcoin has peaked around Zone 3. Chart 2 - Time Bitcoin often sees sideways action and the early stages of an uptrend 70-40 weeks out from the halvenings. In each 30 week "time" period, the bottom was already in, prior to 70 weeks out from the halving (excluding 2011). Chart 3 - Gaussian Channel (Weekly) Every cycle Bitcoin enters the weekly Gaussian Channel and falls below it for 20-40 weeks, except for 2011, I used the 5 Day timeframe as Bitcoin was still young and there wasn't enough data. Lastly Chart 4 - The Sweet Spot (Weekly) When you overlay these 3 charts, it gives you a reference point to find a "pot of honey" for that little Bear! This is a great time to really maximise the potential for the best dollar cost average (DCA) into that Foundation Zone. Hope zooming out like this gives you some perspective and assists with you being rewarded for you patience.