تحلیل تکنیکال EXCAVO درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۴/۱۰/۹)

Scenarios • Markets • Levels • Positioning First of all, I want to thank everyone for the activity under my previous post . More than 300 likes are not just numbers to me — they show that you read, think, and ask the right questions. These are exactly the people who motivate me to keep sharing my perspective. I don’t write for algorithms. I write for those who want real results and understand that results come through process, discipline, and the right environment. This text is not about fast growth or guessing the bottom. It is about patience, structure, and working during moments of maximum pain. In 2026, the market will be selective: opportunities will become fewer, and the cost of mistakes will be higher. This is exactly when an advantage is built — by those who can wait and work systematically, not alone. ___________________________________________ Context and Philosophy of 2026 2026 is a year of reassessment and awareness. A year when the market stops rewarding haste and illusions. We are in a bearish phase, and according to my calculations, it will likely last almost until the end of the year. This is not a time for emotions or hope — it is a time for learning and preparing for the next cycle. It’s important to accept a simple truth: the market does not owe you opportunities every day. No trade is also a position. I’ve been in financial markets since 2009 and in crypto since 2016. I’ve seen how every cycle looks different but ends the same way — disappointment and denial. That is exactly where the market pushes the majority in 2026. ___________________________________________ What Really Happened in 2025 2025 became the year of maximum institutional involvement. ETFs, derivatives, structured products, and complex instruments fully integrated crypto into the global financial system. And the global financial market is: - highly competitive - professional - cold and calculated This is not a place for belief — this is where capital positions, hedges, and extracts liquidity. Crypto remains a young industry, but it is already playing by adult rules. Many failed to understand this — and paid for it. ___________________________________________ The Main Mistake Most Will Make in 2026 Two things: 1. Believing in a quick reversal 2. Increasing risk in an attempt to “win it back” Hope is the most expensive emotion in the market. The market does not pay for hope — it pays for timing, structure, and execution. Most people will leave not because the market is “bad,” but because they will break psychologically. I’ve seen it many times: different cycles, different faces — the same mistakes. If you stay in the market, you must relearn it every cycle. ___________________________________________ Macro Environment and Market Conditions Key factors I’m watching: - interest rates - regulation - capital flow direction - narratives that attract new liquidity Regulation is neither an enemy nor a savior — it is reality. Licenses, requirements, and rules are shaping a market that is becoming part of the global financial system. 2026 is a year of redistribution and accumulation, not growth. Liquidity is fragmented. There are too many projects, too many tokens, and not enough capital for everyone. Stablecoins are growing, but still not enough to “feed” the entire market. ___________________________________________ Altcoins in 2026: My View My position is strict and honest: Most altcoins face collapse, cleansing, and increased regulatory pressure. The reasons are clear: - an excessive number of tokens - fragmented attention - constant unlock pressure - funds sitting in long-term profit - lack of sustainable economics There will be exceptions — but they will be rare. Paradoxically, memecoins (despite my skepticism) did one useful thing: they forced people to learn on-chain analysis, search for inefficiencies, and track capital flows. What remains structurally alive RWA (tokenized real-world assets) infrastructure DeFi v2 as an alternative to the traditional system At the same time, we must be honest: potential returns in altcoins are structurally declining compared to previous cycles. ___________________________________________ Bitcoin — Base Scenario for 2026 and Key Levels My base scenario is continued pressure and bottom formation. Capitulation will affect: - traders - investors - miners - funds - large corporations The market will be cleansed of large holders. This process is always painful — and always necessary. Key ranges - base: 48,000 – 74,000 - extreme zones: 38,000 – 46,000 My operating logic - the first meaningful accumulation zone is around 64k - limit orders are placed lower - buying only during moments of panic - no rush, no emotions There is an old saying: “ We enter the market when there is blood in the streets .” This is not drama — this is how asymmetric advantage is built. Short squeezes are possible, but they will be short-lived. Markets do not trend higher on disappointment. In my view, the final deep phase of this cycle and the shift toward early bullish conditions align closer to September 2026. ___________________________________________ Other Markets and Diversification One of the biggest mistakes crypto traders make is thinking the world ends with crypto. Blockchain is infrastructure — not the entire market. That’s why in 2026 I diversify across: - gold - oil - indices - stocks - and only very selectively crypto assets Other markets are: - more liquid - more structured - often cleaner in execution S&P 500 So far there are no clear reversal signals, but after new highs I expect correction or stagnation. The reasons are obvious: the AI bubble, debt pressure, and liquidity concentration. Gold A historical safe haven. The trend remains intact. My long-term target is $6,000 ± $1,000. DXY Weakening is possible, but the dollar is likely to maintain dominance due to digitization and global settlement demand. Oil One of my key instruments. Expensive oil is not beneficial for the US, and I see no strong reasons for sustainably high prices in the short term. ___________________________________________ Narratives Beyond Crypto The world is reaching the limits of energy supply. Energy is becoming a strategic advantage. Those who produce electricity efficiently will be in a strong position. Alternative energy sources and the entire energy chain will play a key role. AI is not just hype. AI will drive breakthroughs in medicine, energy, data analysis, and financial markets. Global instability is no longer a forecast — it is a condition. We are moving toward a reset of global processes and agreements. ___________________________________________ My Trading Approach in 2026 - more cash - short-biased trading when structure allows - only selective entries - waiting for panic - minimized risk If there is no setup - there is no trade. That is discipline. And one more thing: if you are tired - rest. The market will not disappear. Your capital and your mindset are your main assets. ___________________________________________ Personal Commitment and Community In 2026, I will relaunch the Academy and deeply integrate AI tools. For members of my community, the Academy will be free under specific conditions. Discipline is not motivation. Discipline is the ability to follow a plan regardless of emotions. Growth is slow alone. It is faster in the right environment. I am building a strong trading community where: - thinking evolves - on-chain capital flows are analyzed - portfolios with limit orders are structured - experience is shared, not illusions Some of these portfolios have already started activating, and one position is around +15%. This is not luck — this is systematic work. ___________________________________________ One Honest Question Ask yourself honestly: Are you here to prove something to the market — or to achieve a sustainable result? Because results only come through self-study, discipline, and a repeatable process. ___________________________________________ Final Thoughts Markets reward preparation, not urgency. Give the market time. Give the system time. If you are still here in 2026 — you are already ahead of most. The main task is simple: stay in the game. Build positions when it hurts. Grow when it is quiet. Best regards EXCAVO