تحلیل تکنیکال Skyrexio درباره نماد BTC در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۵/۱۱

🗓This article explores the Bollinger Bands indicator—a powerful volatility tool used by traders worldwide. You'll learn how it works, how to calculate it, and how to use it to detect potential breakouts, trend reversals, and overbought or oversold conditions in the market. 📚 Introduction to Bollinger Bands In the fast-paced world of trading, understanding market volatility is key to making informed decisions. Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, offer a visual and statistical method to measure this volatility. Unlike simple moving averages, which only tell you the trend, Bollinger Bands expand and contract based on recent price action, helping traders spot overbought, oversold, or consolidation phases. These bands dynamically adjust to market conditions, making them one of the most popular indicators for trend-following, mean-reversion, and breakout strategies. Whether you’re trading crypto, stocks, or forex, Bollinger Bands can help you identify high-probability setups by combining trend direction with volatility. 📚 How Bollinger Bands Are Calculated Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: Middle Band – This is a simple moving average (SMA) of the price, typically over 20 periods. Upper Band – The middle band plus two standard deviations. Lower Band – The middle band minus two standard deviations. Middle Band = SMA(n) Upper Band = SMA(n) + (k × σₙ) Lower Band = SMA(n) - (k × σₙ) Where σₙ is the standard deviation of the price for n periods and k is the multiplier, typically set to 2, which captures ~95% of price action under normal distribution. The middle band shows the average price over the last 20 candles. The upper and lower bands adjust based on how volatile the price has been — expanding in high volatility and contracting in low volatility. 🤖 For those traders who want to implement Bollinger Bands into algorithmic strategy we provide formula it's calculation in Pine Script: Pine Script® basis = ta.sma(src, length) // Middle Band (SMA) dev = mult * ta.stdev(src, length) // Standard Deviation × Multiplier upper = basis + dev // Upper Band lower = basis - dev // Lower Band 📚 How to Use MACD in Trading Strategies ⚡️Bollinger Band Squeeze (Volatility Contraction and Expansion) The idea is pretty simple, а squeeze indicates low volatility and often precedes a breakout. The squeeze is the situation when the Upper Band and Lower Band contract, and BB width is at a local minimum. In this case you shall be prepared for the high volatility after the period of low volatility. This strategy doesn’t predict direction — it prepares you for volatility. Long setup: Price is in long-term uptrend, you can use 200 EMA as a major trend approximation - price shall be above it. Bollinger Bands is narrow in comparison to the previous period. Price usually is in sideways. Open long trade when candle shows a breakout and closes above the Upper Band. Set a trailing stop-loss at the Middle Band. Short setup: Price is in long-term downtrend, you can use 200 EMA as a major trend approximation - price shall be below it. Bollinger Bands is narrow in comparison to the previous period. Price usually is in sideways. Open short trade when candle shows a breakdown and closes below the Lower Band. Set a trailing stop-loss at the Middle Band 📈Long Trading Strategy Example 1. Price candle shall be closed above 200-period EMA. In our example we have BTCUSDT.P 4h time frame. 2. Bollinger Bands shall be narrow in comparison with the previous periods. 3. Open long trade when candle closes above the Upper Band. 4. Close trade when price touched the Middle Band. 📉Short trading strategy example 1. Price candle shall be closed below 200-period EMA. In our example we have BTCUSDT.P 4h time frame. 2. Bollinger Bands shall be narrow in comparison with the previous periods. 3. Open short trade when candle closes below the Lower Band. 4. Close trade when price touched the Middle Band. ⚡️Mean Reversion (Rebound from the Bands) This is the most common approach to use Bollinger Bands. The idea is also very simple, we just want to open long if price touches Lower Band and short if price reaches Upper Band. Price tends to revert to the mean (Middle Band), especially in range-bound markets. It's very important to trade in the direction of the major trend to reduce the probability of the large move against you. Long setup: Price is in long-term uptrend, you can use 200 EMA as a major trend approximation - price shall be above it. Open long trade when price touches the Lower Band. Set the initial stop-loss at the fixed percentage below entry price. Choose this percentage number with your personal risk/money management, you shall be comfortable to lose this amount of money in case of stop-loss hit. If price reached Middle Band set stop-loss at breakeven. Close trade when price reached the Upper Band. Short setup: Price is in long-term downtrend, you can use 200 EMA as a major trend approximation - price shall be below it. Open short trade when price touches the Upper Band. Set the initial stop-loss at the fixed percentage above entry price. Choose this percentage number with your personal risk/money management, you shall be comfortable to lose this amount of money in case of stop-loss hit. If price reached Middle Band set stop-loss at breakeven. Close trade when price reached the Lower Band. 🧪 Important: the most common approach to close trades is the Middle Band touch, this is classic mean reversion. We experimented multiple times with different approached and revealed that usually it's better to take profit at the Upper/Lower band for long/short trades and use Middle Band only for setting stop-loss at breakeven. This approach provides better risk to reward ratio. 📈Long Trading Strategy Example 1. Price candle shall be closed above 200-period EMA. In our example we have BTCUSDT.P 4h time frame. 2. Open long trade the Lower Band. 3. Put Initial stop-loss 2% below the entry price. 4. When price reached Middle band place stop-loss at the breakeven. 5. Close long trade at the Upper Band. 📉Short trading strategy example 1. Price candle shall be closed below 200-period EMA. In our example we have BTCUSDT.P 4h time frame. 2. Open short trade the Upper Band. 3. Put Initial stop-loss 2% above the entry price. 4. When price reached Middle band place stop-loss at the breakeven. 5. Close short trade at the Lower Band. 🧪 Important tip: notice that initial stop-loss is needed only to avoid disaster in case of price moves strongly against you. This percentage shall give enough space to avoid its reaching too often. Mean reversion strategy provides fast trades with the small average gain, so you shall maintain the high win rate (perfectly above 70%). You have to choose stop-loss based on particular asset volatility. ⚡️Combined Approach: Mean Reversion + Trend Following Skyrexio made multiple researches about Bollinger Bands strategies and we found that we can receive better gains in combination of different approaches. Mean reversion gives you great entry with discount but you don't need to exit that early. Use the trading stop and allow to gain profit while market is moving in your direction. This approach you can find in our advanced strategy Bollinger Bands Enhanced Strategy which we shared in 2024. Click on the link to read about it and understand how you can combine best features of this popular indicator. 📚 Conclusion Bollinger Bands are more than just a volatility indicator — they provide a flexible framework for understanding price dynamics and market conditions. By visualizing the relationship between price and standard deviation around a moving average, traders can gain valuable insights into whether an asset is consolidating, trending, or preparing for a breakout. The real strength of Bollinger Bands lies in their versatility. They can adapt to different trading styles — whether you’re a short-term scalper, a swing trader, or a long-term position holder. From identifying squeeze setups to riding strong trends or capturing mean reversion moves, BBs offer a strategic edge when used correctly. However, Bollinger Bands should never be used in isolation. Like any technical tool, they work best when combined with momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, volume analysis, and price action signals. Context is key: a signal that works well in a ranging market may fail during high momentum trends. Ultimately, Bollinger Bands help traders make more informed, disciplined decisions by clarifying where price stands relative to recent history. When paired with sound risk management and broader market awareness, they become a powerful ally in navigating market uncertainty.