wethecoin

BTC relatively overbought. We have entered elevated territory on the BTC Daily RSI. This coincides with the 3d higher high on BTC since dipping below $16,000 last November. After making the 3d higher high yesterday, BTC has traded back down below 31,000 as of this post. Unless BTC can see multiple, higher daily closes (above $31,000), I will favor the sell-side and expect lower lows. Shorts are a good risk to reward at this time. If BTC does see multiple higher closes above 31K , expect to test $38K next. I'm not actually trading BTC at this time, but I saw the chart setup and thought I would share... Not trading advice

Thoughts on BTC: October 2022 and Forward ** For Entertainment and Analysis Only - Not Financial Advice or Trading Advice ** Path on chart reflects simple Elliot Wave theory just to visualize future direction. (Press Play Button any price action past October 6, 2022) Expect BTC to find a bottom over the next year. Blue Path represents upward consolidation into 2023 Red Path represents final move to find a bottom (a bottom may be a retest of the June 2022 Low of 17,500-$17,600, or may be one final lower low). Timing of these moves is hard to predict, I am cautious of fat tail risks that stem from a global economy suffering from high debt, rising inflation, geo-political conflict and ongoing supply-chain disruptions. Although much of the above economic risk is already priced into the crypto and equity markets, continued volatility is likely and more severe downside risk is possible. Re-visit this plan following any disruptive events; such as escalation of current geo-political conflict or greater than expected hawkish monetary policy by Central Banks (i.e. Fed interest rates hikes greater than 4.5%).Comment: In light of the recent FOMC rate decision and follow-up address by Fed Chairman Powell on 12/14/2022, odds are not high to see a BTC price above 20K again anytime soon. The Federal Reserve's mandate to bring inflation down is still their top priority. There is high expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue 50 basis point rate hikes up to 5.5% and these interest rates will likely persist through 2023. It's not going to be "risk on" until that changes. One thing to look out for in 2023 is corporate layoffs. If unemployment becomes a problem, that would probably be the catalyst for the Fed to get more dovish, maybe lower rates and encourage money back into the markets. My original scenario remains unchanged. Choppy consolidation for the next year with a considerable probability for even lower lows.. That being said, there is an argument to be made that BTC is in a value zone under the 200 week moving averages, so dollar cost averaging while not investing more than you can afford to lose is not a bad idea. Or, just staying out of the markets until the macro-economic environment encourages a risk-on mentality is not a bad idea either. This of course is my humble opinion and not financial advice. Every investor should develop a trading or investment plan based on their own individual financial circumstances and goals...Comment: I was incorrect in my assessment of how the markets would react to the Fed announcing that rates would go above 5% and remain there for at least all of 2023. The Fed's actions have matched their statements, as the Fed Rate now sits at 5% in mid 2023. That all being said, BTC price action is moving in the general hypothetical pattern estimated in the posted chart. The overall view point has not changed, but the timeline for recovery will most likely be further out into the future than what is depicted on the chart above.