wbburgin

Today's relief rally to $28,500 needs confirmation on both sides before we can see the broader picture. BTCUSD is currently making lower highs in a distinctive consolidation pattern, with tremendous support at $26,600 and multiple (failed) attempts to create higher highs. Here are some of my observations for both the bulls and the bears and I'll leave it for you guys to discuss in the comments.For the Bears: We need a lower high on the RSI before we can label this as a rejection off the red resistance line. A fall below $26,600 would make this rally a classic head and shoulders pattern, in which the price could potentially fall through the liquidity zone after its parabolic rise earlier this year. For the Bulls:The RSI has consistently been making higher lows since March 10th. This pattern is similar to the higher lows pattern that preceded January's liquidity pump after the FTX fallout, where BTCUSD rapidly rose up to meet the pre-fallout price levels. We would need a strong break through the red resistance line and a higher high to confirm that a macro rally has actually begun.My verdict: if a pump to $29,000 or $30,000 is coming, I don't think it is in today's rally. The RSI has risen too quickly when compared to previous macro rallies, and the red structural resistance hasn't been broken through. Rather, I believe today was an influx of capital because a) the opening on Hong Kong / China to crypto once again and b) the tentative debt ceiling agreement reached by the US Congress. Be sure to keep an eye on the red resistance line, and also the volume profile at about 29K. I will enter long or enter short depending on future price action and confirmation, but for now I am neutral.

Bitcoin 1 Hour: Exact Same Downslope Bitcoin's one-hour trend is showing the exact same downslope (-45 degrees) as the chart demonstrated mid-April. This may indicate more trying times to come, at least in the short term. The make-or-break is still $27250. A fall below that critical support level might trigger a more prolonged downtrend. One the other hand, a run above $30000 is still the zone where I will enter longs. Happy Wednesday & happy trading! wbburgin

Bitcoin is facing a critical resistance level in its path upwards - $24,400. Let's look at previous bear markets to see what the most likely scenario might be for its price action.The resistance level I'll be looking at today is a 1000-period geometric median (from now on, Q2) calculated from resistance in each candlestick's body/wick. This is the lower quartile (typically, a cross over this resistance line signifies the start of a strong uptrend).On this chart, the aqua-colored line is the 100-period volatility-weighted moving average. You can find the indicator in my scripts.2015In 2015, Bitcoin attempted to break through both resistance line Q2 (white) and the volatility MA. Failing to do so, it collapsed strongly to the downside, before reaching the dominant low support (in green).Bitcoin then retested the volatility MA, falling to the dominant low support again, before finally breaking through the volatility-weighted MA and retesting resistance line Q2 twice. Using the volatility-weighted MA as a crutch, Bitcoin finally began to rally and broke through Q2.2018-2019In the 2018-2019 bear market, Bitcoin used Q2 as support seven-eight times, but was consistently rejected by the volatility MA. This resulted in the descending triangle and the collapse to the dominant low support, before breaking to the upside.20202020's flash crash resulted in the price collapsing to the dominant low support, then gradually breaking past Q2.TakeawaysThe similarities to late 2015 are the most striking.Bitcoin has been rejected by Q2 (the FTX debacle)Bitcoin has since regained the volatility MABitcoin has retested the Q2 twice. Perhaps on a third retest it will break through, like in 2015?However, to play the devil's advocate and to cover our bases, it is important to note that in these three bear markets in Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin has always retested the dominant low support. Ours is sitting at $16,100 at the moment.In my opinion, a scenario where Bitcoin could go down this low is extremely unlikely, unless a major stablecoin, exchange, or lender collapses. Rather, if Bitcoin falls further (such as due to monetary policy or macroeconomic conditions), I see it more likely to be a slow and gradual decline over a few months - to around $20,000, which I have forecasted on the chart.Ultimately, $24,400 is the resistance level to look for. I'd love to hear your thoughts, is this an ascending triangle forming between the volatility MA and Q2?wbburgin

A continuation of upwards momentum for Bitcoin is more likely than any capitulation to the downside. BTC is drawing support on the one hour timeframe from the 21500 resistance line, which developed in the aftermath of the FTX debacle and was confirmed upon this month's upwards price action. We saw the same resistance line rejecting Bitcoin's price on January 18th until Bitcoin finally broke past the line on the 20th.Moreover, February's slight depression in price has not been reflected in either cumulative volatility (which I measure as the reversion between the median and the mean) or the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. This tells that the price is consolidating significantly, despite the macroeconomic conditions or the recent resistance in other risk markets, such as equities. I hesitantly point to a combination of technical reversion to the mean and policy (such as Kraken's staking program in conflict with the U.S. government) for the fall.If the 21500 resistance does not hold, we can expect the next resistance at 20400, at the geometric median. After December began and Bitcoin began to consolidate from its plummet, we saw this median (denoted in yellow on-chart) reject the price twice (on Dec 14th and between the 20th-26th, respectfully), before Bitcoin finally broke through on Jan 10th, starting its current uptrend.Finally, I noticed a few ideas mentioning the RSI and Bitcoin as well as macroeconomic factors for reasons why this current rally could be a bull trap. I included the RSI on this chart because I am aware that, since Jan 23rd, the RSI has turned significantly bearish, producing lower highs and lower lows. I interpret this as the RSI is adjusting to the more muted volatility of the price action following the elevated volatility of the 35% rise over a month, which is just a factor of these indicators not calculating from dynamic lookback periods. As for macroeconomic conditions, we must remember that risk assets trade on forward-looking expectations. As the full effects of federal policy will take months to take effect, and as Bitcoin continues to decouple from a high correlation with the stock market, I expect further consolidation, instead of a lower low, especially given the strength of the rally produced this past month.Support below 20400: 18500, 17500, 16500. Resistance above current price: 22500, 23500, 24600. Strangely uniform levels.Regards, wbburgin