rossjohnson47

📈 BTC/USD – Liquidity Recovered, Price ReactingThis chart shows BTC (candles) vs. M2 Global Liquidity (yellow, 77-day delay).M2 dropped ~4% in late 2024, then fully recovered that drop in early 2025.BTC is now reacting to that move with a delay of ~77 days, showing strength off ~$80K support.If M2 breaks out from here, BTC could trend toward $90K–100K, possibly ATH by mid-June.To hold above $80K, M2 likely needs ~4–6% YoY growth or clear upward momentum.If M2 double-tops, BTC may peak within 60–77 days.Liquidity leads, Bitcoin follows — and M2 just reclaimed 4%.

The idea that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to go up around 70 days after global liquidity (M2) increases is based on how liquidity drives risk asset prices—especially in speculative markets like crypto. Here's a breakdown of why this happens, particularly with the 70-day lag:🔍 What is M2 Global Liquidity?M2 includes:CashChecking depositsSavings accountsOther near-money assetsWhen global M2 increases, it usually means central banks are easing (e.g., lowering rates, injecting liquidity), which tends to:Increase money supplyLower the cost of capitalMake riskier assets more attractive💸 Why Does BTC/ETH React to M2?Crypto = High-Beta Asset ClassBTC and ETH are risk-on assets, meaning they thrive when:Investors are optimisticThere's more disposable capital floating aroundLiquidity Flows Down the Risk CurveWhen liquidity enters the system:It first boosts safe assets (e.g., bonds, large-cap stocks)Then mid-cap equitiesFinally flows into speculative plays like cryptoCrypto’s Reaction is Delayed (~70 Days)This 70-day lag happens because:Institutions take time to reallocate capitalRetail follows after they see initial market strengthIt takes time for M2 to affect sentiment, demand, and actual buying📊 Empirical BackingAnalysts like Arthur Hayes, Macro Alf, and others have noted:BTC price often correlates with global M2, with a lag of 60–90 daysCrypto tends to front-run rate cuts, but lags money supply changes⏱️ Summary: Why the 70-Day Lag?CauseEffectGlobal M2 risesMoney becomes more availableInstitutions adjust portfoliosRisk-on flows beginInvestors re-enter cryptoDemand for BTC/ETH increases~70 days laterBTC/ETH prices begin to climb

The idea that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to go up around 70 days after global liquidity (M2) increases is based on how liquidity drives risk asset prices—especially in speculative markets like crypto. Here's a breakdown of why this happens, particularly with the 70-day lag:🔍 What is M2 Global Liquidity?M2 includes:CashChecking depositsSavings accountsOther near-money assetsWhen global M2 increases, it usually means central banks are easing (e.g., lowering rates, injecting liquidity), which tends to:Increase money supplyLower the cost of capitalMake riskier assets more attractive💸 Why Does BTC/ETH React to M2?Crypto = High-Beta Asset ClassBTC and ETH are risk-on assets, meaning they thrive when:Investors are optimisticThere's more disposable capital floating aroundLiquidity Flows Down the Risk CurveWhen liquidity enters the system:It first boosts safe assets (e.g., bonds, large-cap stocks)Then mid-cap equitiesFinally flows into speculative plays like cryptoCrypto’s Reaction is Delayed (~70 Days)This 70-day lag happens because:Institutions take time to reallocate capitalRetail follows after they see initial market strengthIt takes time for M2 to affect sentiment, demand, and actual buying📊 Empirical BackingAnalysts like Arthur Hayes, Macro Alf, and others have noted:BTC price often correlates with global M2, with a lag of 60–90 daysCrypto tends to front-run rate cuts, but lags money supply changes⏱️ Summary: Why the 70-Day Lag?CauseEffectGlobal M2 risesMoney becomes more availableInstitutions adjust portfoliosRisk-on flows beginInvestors re-enter cryptoDemand for BTC/ETH increases~70 days laterBTC/ETH prices begin to climb

As per previous analysis, and we had a 5m FVG inversion

I believe gold should increase here briefly off the 4 hour FVG, however, it should ultimately fill the volume gap.Wait for strong 5m closes before choosing a direction

Gold seemed to have been faking to the upside during London and looks to drop during New York.I would rate the setup a B because the 4hr candle didn't wick to the upside. However, this could be because of heavy selling pressure.

Sells have been entered for gold! Should continue down now.

Sell Gold based on the criteria established.Price could keep moving up and if that is the case, you should not be entering.

Just putting some thoughts out there- it looks like there is about a 25% chance of a fully bearish market and the end of the bull cycle. However, there are some other possibilities that could play out, as indicated on the chart.CPI seems to be coming down, and M2 supply is going up. The liquidity is estimated to hit the market around March 24 (my estimation) and it looks like crypto prices will recover.Stay safe guys!

Bitcoin just reached the buy zone!RSI came below 30 and is looking for bullish divergence and volume is also picking up!