Technical analysis by rossjohnson47 about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (4/2/2025)

The idea that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to go up around 70 days after global liquidity (M2) increases is based on how liquidity drives risk asset prices—especially in speculative markets like crypto. Here's a breakdown of why this happens, particularly with the 70-day lag:🔍 What is M2 Global Liquidity?M2 includes:CashChecking depositsSavings accountsOther near-money assetsWhen global M2 increases, it usually means central banks are easing (e.g., lowering rates, injecting liquidity), which tends to:Increase money supplyLower the cost of capitalMake riskier assets more attractive💸 Why Does BTC/ETH React to M2?Crypto = High-Beta Asset ClassBTC and ETH are risk-on assets, meaning they thrive when:Investors are optimisticThere's more disposable capital floating aroundLiquidity Flows Down the Risk CurveWhen liquidity enters the system:It first boosts safe assets (e.g., bonds, large-cap stocks)Then mid-cap equitiesFinally flows into speculative plays like cryptoCrypto’s Reaction is Delayed (~70 Days)This 70-day lag happens because:Institutions take time to reallocate capitalRetail follows after they see initial market strengthIt takes time for M2 to affect sentiment, demand, and actual buying📊 Empirical BackingAnalysts like Arthur Hayes, Macro Alf, and others have noted:BTC price often correlates with global M2, with a lag of 60–90 daysCrypto tends to front-run rate cuts, but lags money supply changes⏱️ Summary: Why the 70-Day Lag?CauseEffectGlobal M2 risesMoney becomes more availableInstitutions adjust portfoliosRisk-on flows beginInvestors re-enter cryptoDemand for BTC/ETH increases~70 days laterBTC/ETH prices begin to climb