putnatirgo

Some comparisons of the current consolidation with the range from the first half of 2021, which played out as distribution, are circulating. However, there may be key differences to consider. Judging by RSI and OBV in 2021, the only bullish signals were hidden divergences, typically suggesting trend continuation due to underlying buying interest. However, the OBV divergence could also be interpreted in a more bearish context: the higher low occurred due to strong interest in absorbing the existing high selling volume – i.e. there was strong selling ongoing.This contrasts with the current range. We have seen lower lows, which induced bearish sentiment, but with ongoing bullish RSI divergence. These lower lows are not supported by significant sell volume, suggesting that while bearish sentiment led to heavy shorting, the market was actually in accumulation. This idea is further supported by the volume node in the area where this potentially bullish price action occurred.Now we know how that played out—shorts were liquidated by short-lived all-time high, which flipped market sentiment toward being skewed heavily in favor of leveraged longs. These longs were subsequently liquidated over the last 24 hours, resulting in total liquidations of $600 million. Currently, the market appears to have a more balanced distribution of longs and shorts. However, there may still be too many longs for market to allow price discovery.If the range between approximately 90K and 100K was indeed an accumulation zone, it’s likely the market will attempt to remove excess longs and build shorts within a new range above 100K. Those who accumulated below likely don’t want the price to return to that range, as they want to avoid risking an overly bearish shift that could lead to a dump. Additionally, they will need to generate significant buying interest at higher price levels. But for now, there is a need for buildup of bearish sentiment instead—similar to what occurred in the previous range, as discussed in my earlier idea. If this was indeed an accumulation zone, this scenario seems highly plausible. We will see soon enough if a bearish sentiment will be achieved with ranging above 100k.Previous idea:

Nearing VWAP and fib retracement, ARKM shows signs of trend exhaustion and sell absorption.

FIL, DOT INJ, ARKM, and TAO may be still in accumulation area judging by volume profile and VWAP. However, DOT seems to have relatively more risks as it has comparably smaller retrace and price is above both POC and VWAP.FIL, INJ ARKM and TAO seems to be most promising to due to 0.5 retraces, price being at either POC, or VWAP or both. TAO seems attractive due to potential reaccummulationLINK and ARB seems too extended, FET also looks unconvincingBTC pair outlook gives additional encouragement

TAO has retraced, potential opportunity to add for longs