phaneth2014

✅ 1. Market Structure (1D Timeframe) My chart shows: 🔹 Lower Low (LL) recently formed This confirms bearish structure, since before that we had a Higher Low (HL). The LL breaks the bullish trend. 🔹 Multiple Shooting Stars at the top This shows strong distribution (smart money selling). The rejection near 126k was the macro top. 🔹 BOS (Break of Structure) at ~98,186 I marked this correctly. Breaking this level initiates a new bearish cycle. ________________________________________ ✅ 2. Trendline Break (Big Signal) My long-term ascending trendline (TL) was broken decisively with a strong bearish candle. This is a major indication of: •Bullish trend ending •Smart money exiting •Bearish continuation expected A retest of the trendline may happen, but usually after a TL break, BTC continues lower for weeks. ________________________________________ ✅ 3. Current Price Action (95,447 area) Price is sitting inside my red supply/consolidation zone, which aligns with: •Prior HL •BOS level •Strong liquidity zone This is why I see consolidation — market is deciding whether to: A) Retest the TL again (short-term up) or B) Continue dumping toward demand below Given my structure: B is more likely. ________________________________________ 🟥 4. Bearish Scenario (Most Likely) This follows my dotted projection and makes sense with the chart. BTC likely does: 1.Small bounce to retest 98,000 – 100,000 oThis is BOS retest oThis is supply oThis is also TL retest zone oThis is where sellers reload 2.Failure to break TL → major drop begins 3.First stop: 88,000 – 84,000 Consolidation Zone This is a major liquidity zone. 4.Final target: 🎯 77,000 (my TP is correct) or even wick to: 🎯 74,500 (liquidity) Why 77k target is logical: •High timeframe demand zone •Big imbalance to fill •Previous consolidation •Measured move from top → aligns perfectly ________________________________________ 🟩 5. Bullish Scenario (Low Probability) For BTC to flip bullish again: 1.Must reclaim 98,186 BOS 2.Must close above 100,000 3.Must break back inside the trendline Only then bullish continuation to: 📈 106,000 📈 118,500 SL zone But currently price is below BOS + below TL, so bullish scenario is only 25–30% likely. ________________________________________ ⭐ 6. Big Summary (Easy to Read) ✔ Trend: Bearish ✔ Structure: Lower Low (LL) confirmed ✔ Trendline: Broken → Bears in control ✔ BOS: Below 98k → bearish continuation ✔ Short-term: Bounce to 98k possible ✔ Mid-term: Drop to 88k–84k ✔ Final Target: 77k → 74.5k My TP (77,000) is accurate and realistic.

✅ 1. Overall Structure (1D Timeframe) •A descending corrective channel (yellow lines) •Major rejection at the channel top •Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure •Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel This means: 👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet. 👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout. ________________________________________ ✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted 🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance •This zone is extremely important. •Price has failed here multiple times already. •As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues. This is the “breaker” level for bulls. ________________________________________ 🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas) I mapped the OB zones correctly: 1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950 •First liquidity target •Already almost tapped/mitigated •Still valid for another reaction 2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885 •Stronger demand •Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues •My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence 3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700 •If price breaks deeper into channel •This is the next liquidity layer These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel. ________________________________________ Extreme Liquidity Below I noted: •3100 •3000 •2600 These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term. Price falls here only if: •Channel breaks down •Major macro bearish shift occurs → Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst. ________________________________________ ✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing) A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel This supports more downside. B. I drew an ABC correction The new chart also still shows: •A → B → C decline likely forming •Potential completion at the lower trendline This supports a drop before any rally. C. My white projection (V-shape recovery) This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if: •Price touches lower OB ➡️ 3,929 – 3,885 •And then breaks back above ➡️ 4,150 Only then the big bullish run can start. ________________________________________ 📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart) Based on my new structure: Primary Scenario (70% probability) Price drops to the lower OB: → 3,929 – 3,885 Possibly even wick into: → 3,800 – 3,700 Then: Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150) If rejection again → continuation inside channel. ________________________________________ Bullish Scenario (30% probability) For my yellow arrow to be valid: 1.Price must touch the lower OB 2.Then form a strong reversal 3.Then break upward out of the descending channel 4.Then close above 4,150 5.Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800 This matches my yellow long-term projection. ________________________________________ 🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated) Immediate Support LevelSignificance 3,990Weak OB – might not hold 3,950First real support 3,929 – 3,885🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence Immediate Resistance LevelSignificance 4,107–4,150🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls) 4,200Channel breakout level 4,380First macro target ________________________________________ ⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear) My new chart indicates: ✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel ✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB ✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal ✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change ✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800 ✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.

BTCUSDT BTC I said on Oct 17, 2025 last month will dump to $7600, now new month in November 2025, look like follow my structure

🧭 Overall Structure The chart shows a potential bearish setup. I have drawn a descending pattern (A-B-C-D) with rejection from an Order Block (OB) around $4,013–$4,020. The white arrow projects a downward move toward 3,885. 🔍 Key Technical Elements 1. Order Blocks (OB) Upper OB (~4,150–4,120): Higher timeframe supply zone; strong resistance if price rallies. Current OB (~4,013–4,040): Recently rejected here — price reacted and failed to make a new higher high → confirms seller pressure. 2. Break of Structure (BOS) A previous BOS occurred to the downside, suggesting bearish momentum took control after a temporary bullish leg. 3. Trend Lines (Yellow Dashed) The upper TL connects lower highs → consistent downtrend. The lower TL (support) was recently tested and might break soon — signaling bearish continuation. 4. Pattern A–B–C–D harmonic-like pattern completed near the order block, often signaling a sell opportunity when it aligns with rejection zones. Price formed a lower high (LH) at point C and another at D → confirms trend weakness. 5. Candlestick Rejection “Rejected” and “Hammer” labels near point D and OB zone show failed bullish attempts → adds confluence for short. 🎯 Bearish Targets TP1: 3,950 (nearest support) TP2: 3,930 (previous low) TP3 (Major): 3,885 (strong historical support zone) ⚠️ Invalidation If price closes above 4,040–4,060 (OB zone), bearish setup invalidates. That would mean liquidity grab and possible push toward 4,100–4,150 OB. 🧩 Summary BiasEntry ZoneConfirmationTargetsInvalidation Bearish4,010–4,020 OB zoneRejection + lower high3,950 → 3,930 → 3,885Close above 4,060

🧭 Chart Analysis (XAUUSD – 1H with structure context) Market Structure That means momentum continues downward as long as price stays below 4030–4050. 🔑 Key Levels LevelTypeExpectation 4050Resistance / SL zoneIf broken, bears invalidated 4000Minor resistanceRetest zone after rejection 3920Target 1Previous swing low liquidity 3880–3850Target 2Measured move of the channel / full extension 3820ExtremeFinal downside sweep before reversal possible 📉 Projection If price closes below 3920 (cleanly on 4H or D1), next leg likely extends to 3850 — the lower boundary of your yellow trend channel. That level aligns with: Previous liquidity grab zone from October 22 low. Channel bottom support. Fibonacci extension 1.272 from the 4050 swing high. ⚙️ Trading Setup Idea Bias: Short (continue existing sell bias) Sell zone: 4000–4020 (retests possible) SL: 4060 TP1: 3920 TP2: 3886 TP3: 3850 TP4: 3820 (extended) Risk–Reward ≈ 1:3.8 ✅ Structure = Bearish ✅ Rejection = Confirmed ✅ Target = 3850 realistic if 3920 breaks

🧭 Current Market Context (XAUUSD around 4111): Price is below EMA 9 and failed to break above 4200–4250. The structure shows lower highs → bearish continuation still dominant. Momentum is weak, and buying pressure hasn’t confirmed reversal yet. 📉 Primary Plan (Bearish Bias – More Likely) Entry: Wait for a 4H close below 4070–4050. Enter short/sell once confirmed. Targets: TP1 = 3950 TP2 = 3600 TP3 = 3500 TP4 (long-term) = 3100 Stop Loss: Above 4250 (or above last swing high). ✅ Reason: Trend still bearish. EMA and structure show resistance above price. Strong downside targets available. ✅ Reason: That breakout would invalidate bearish structure and shift momentum up. ⚠️ Key Tips Don’t trade inside 4050–4250 (range zone, no clear direction). Follow 4H or Daily candle confirmations — avoid early entries. Risk only 1–2% of account per trade. If shorting, take partial profit near 3600 and trail stops.

Gold pullback on last Friday, the price can be still downtrend on the next Monday - Tueday to target $4100, if the day closed below $4200, so the price still downtrend more to $4000 for other days

ETH 1 month timeframe is under downtrend the price can be pullback to between $1800 ~ $2100

BTC monthly timeframe view under downtrend the target can be pullback to the 76000 ~ 80000

Gold created other structure it looks like a bullish racgtangle will be uptrend more