Technical analysis by phaneth2014 about Symbol PAXG on 11/16/2025

✅ 1. Overall Structure (1D Timeframe) •A descending corrective channel (yellow lines) •Major rejection at the channel top •Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure •Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel This means: 👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet. 👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout. ________________________________________ ✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted 🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance •This zone is extremely important. •Price has failed here multiple times already. •As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues. This is the “breaker” level for bulls. ________________________________________ 🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas) I mapped the OB zones correctly: 1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950 •First liquidity target •Already almost tapped/mitigated •Still valid for another reaction 2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885 •Stronger demand •Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues •My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence 3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700 •If price breaks deeper into channel •This is the next liquidity layer These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel. ________________________________________ Extreme Liquidity Below I noted: •3100 •3000 •2600 These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term. Price falls here only if: •Channel breaks down •Major macro bearish shift occurs → Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst. ________________________________________ ✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing) A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel This supports more downside. B. I drew an ABC correction The new chart also still shows: •A → B → C decline likely forming •Potential completion at the lower trendline This supports a drop before any rally. C. My white projection (V-shape recovery) This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if: •Price touches lower OB ➡️ 3,929 – 3,885 •And then breaks back above ➡️ 4,150 Only then the big bullish run can start. ________________________________________ 📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart) Based on my new structure: Primary Scenario (70% probability) Price drops to the lower OB: → 3,929 – 3,885 Possibly even wick into: → 3,800 – 3,700 Then: Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150) If rejection again → continuation inside channel. ________________________________________ Bullish Scenario (30% probability) For my yellow arrow to be valid: 1.Price must touch the lower OB 2.Then form a strong reversal 3.Then break upward out of the descending channel 4.Then close above 4,150 5.Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800 This matches my yellow long-term projection. ________________________________________ 🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated) Immediate Support LevelSignificance 3,990Weak OB – might not hold 3,950First real support 3,929 – 3,885🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence Immediate Resistance LevelSignificance 4,107–4,150🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls) 4,200Channel breakout level 4,380First macro target ________________________________________ ⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear) My new chart indicates: ✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel ✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB ✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal ✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change ✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800 ✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.