onwardbtc

📊 Overview Zcash is up over 800% YTD while most altcoins struggle. Arthur Hayes called $1,000 as the "first stop" in late December. Meanwhile, Cypherpunk Technologies (backed by the Winklevoss twins) just bought $29M worth of ZEC and now owns 1.76% of total supply, with plans to reach 5%. The combination of institutional accumulation, supply dynamics, and a high-profile price target makes this setup worth watching. --- 🐋 What the Data Shows - Cypherpunk Technologies purchased 56,418 ZEC for $29M at an average price of $514 - Total Cypherpunk holdings: 290,062 ZEC (1.76% of supply), targeting 5% - Significant exchange withdrawals detected from Binance and Kraken - An estimated 25-30% of all ZEC is held in shielded (private) addresses - Whale wallets control a substantial portion of circulating supply --- 📈 Technical Setup Resistance: $550, $600, $744 (ATH from Nov 2025) Support: $500, $470, $400 Hayes Target: $1,000 ZEC broke out of an ascending triangle pattern and reclaimed the 50-week moving average as support. RSI is approaching overbought territory after the recent rally. A rising wedge on lower timeframes suggests a potential short-term pullback before continuation. The $470 zone shows confluence where daily breakout level, H4 support/resistance, and H1 consolidation align. --- 🎯 Trade Idea Bias: Long (swing position) Entry Zone: $470 - $500 (on pullback) Target 1: $600 (key resistance) Target 2: $744 (retest ATH) Target 3: $1,000 (Hayes target, longer term) Stop Loss: $440 (below $470 confluence zone) Risk/Reward: Approximately 2.5:1 to first target from $480 entry --- ⚠️ Risks to Consider - Regulatory pressure: Privacy coins face ongoing scrutiny. Delistings in some jurisdictions could slash liquidity. - Thin liquidity: High whale concentration and shielded supply mean the market is thin. Moves can be violent in both directions. - Technical pullback: Rising wedge pattern on lower timeframes. A "reset" to $400 is possible before continuation. - Leverage risk: Open interest hit $1.3B in late December. Liquidation cascades can accelerate downside quickly. - BTC correlation: If Bitcoin breaks down hard, ZEC will likely follow regardless of its own setup. --- 📅 Upcoming Catalysts - Cypherpunk continuing to buy toward their 5% supply target (ongoing demand pressure) - Grayscale Zcash Trust ETF speculation (potential 2026 filing) - November 2024 halving effect still playing out (reduced issuance) - Arthur Hayes' macro thesis: liquidity returning through Fed operations in 2026 --- 💡 Conclusion The institutional accumulation pattern from Cypherpunk is real and verifiable. Hayes' $1,000 call adds narrative momentum. However, after an 800% YTD run, expecting a straight line higher is unrealistic. The $470-$500 zone offers better risk/reward for entries. If $470 fails, $400 becomes the next logical support. Size appropriately for the volatility and regulatory uncertainty that comes with privacy coins. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Privacy coins carry unique regulatory risks. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately.

📊 Overview Hyperliquid validators just approved burning approximately $1 billion in HYPE tokens (37M HYPE, roughly 14-16% of circulating supply). The vote passed with 85% support. Meanwhile, significant whale accumulation is occurring at current levels during extreme market fear (Fear and Greed Index: 24). Price sits around $24, down 59% from its September ATH of $59.39. --- 🐋 What the Data Shows - Two whales deposited $5M USDC each specifically to accumulate HYPE - One wallet holds 214,497 HYPE ($5.44M) with $5.52M USDC ready to deploy - A 10x leveraged long position of $4.72M was opened recently - Hyperliquid uses approximately 97% of trading fees for buybacks, now permanently deflationary post-burn --- 📈 Technical Setup Resistance: $27, $30, $36 Support: $22.27 (Fibonacci swing low), $21 (breakdown watch) RSI around 33, approaching oversold territory. Price rejected at $27 and is consolidating. Open interest has dropped, signaling deleveraging. A break above $27 would confirm momentum shift. A break below $21 invalidates the bullish thesis. --- 🎯 Trade Idea Bias: Long (cautious, scaling approach) Entry Zone: $22 - $24 Target 1: $27 (recent rejection, first test) Target 2: $30 (round number resistance) Target 3: $36 (falling wedge breakout target) Stop Loss: $20.50 (below $21 breakdown level) Risk/Reward: Approximately 2:1 to Target 1, 3:1 to Target 2 --- ⚠️ Risks to Consider - Monthly unlocks of approximately 9.9M HYPE ($236M) continue through 2027 - Competition from Aster (briefly captured 70% market share in September) - Large leveraged positions exist with liquidation around $22, cascading liquidations possible - Extreme fear market conditions (F&G: 24), BTC correlation risk --- 📅 Upcoming Catalysts - Token burn now active: all future buybacks permanently reduce supply - HyperEVM ecosystem growth: 100+ protocols deployed, TVL exceeding $2B - Speculation around potential second airdrop driving staking activity --- 💡 Conclusion The token burn creates a structural improvement in tokenomics, but monthly unlocks remain a persistent headwind. The whale accumulation during extreme fear is notable, and the $21-$22 zone offers defined risk. This is a higher timeframe thesis (weeks to months), not a quick scalp. Watch for a bounce from the $22 Fibonacci level or a confirmed break above $27 for momentum entry. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately.