Technical analysis by onwardbtc about Symbol HYPE: Buy recommendation (12/24/2025)

📊 Overview Hyperliquid validators just approved burning approximately $1 billion in HYPE tokens (37M HYPE, roughly 14-16% of circulating supply). The vote passed with 85% support. Meanwhile, significant whale accumulation is occurring at current levels during extreme market fear (Fear and Greed Index: 24). Price sits around $24, down 59% from its September ATH of $59.39. --- 🐋 What the Data Shows - Two whales deposited $5M USDC each specifically to accumulate HYPE - One wallet holds 214,497 HYPE ($5.44M) with $5.52M USDC ready to deploy - A 10x leveraged long position of $4.72M was opened recently - Hyperliquid uses approximately 97% of trading fees for buybacks, now permanently deflationary post-burn --- 📈 Technical Setup Resistance: $27, $30, $36 Support: $22.27 (Fibonacci swing low), $21 (breakdown watch) RSI around 33, approaching oversold territory. Price rejected at $27 and is consolidating. Open interest has dropped, signaling deleveraging. A break above $27 would confirm momentum shift. A break below $21 invalidates the bullish thesis. --- 🎯 Trade Idea Bias: Long (cautious, scaling approach) Entry Zone: $22 - $24 Target 1: $27 (recent rejection, first test) Target 2: $30 (round number resistance) Target 3: $36 (falling wedge breakout target) Stop Loss: $20.50 (below $21 breakdown level) Risk/Reward: Approximately 2:1 to Target 1, 3:1 to Target 2 --- ⚠️ Risks to Consider - Monthly unlocks of approximately 9.9M HYPE ($236M) continue through 2027 - Competition from Aster (briefly captured 70% market share in September) - Large leveraged positions exist with liquidation around $22, cascading liquidations possible - Extreme fear market conditions (F&G: 24), BTC correlation risk --- 📅 Upcoming Catalysts - Token burn now active: all future buybacks permanently reduce supply - HyperEVM ecosystem growth: 100+ protocols deployed, TVL exceeding $2B - Speculation around potential second airdrop driving staking activity --- 💡 Conclusion The token burn creates a structural improvement in tokenomics, but monthly unlocks remain a persistent headwind. The whale accumulation during extreme fear is notable, and the $21-$22 zone offers defined risk. This is a higher timeframe thesis (weeks to months), not a quick scalp. Watch for a bounce from the $22 Fibonacci level or a confirmed break above $27 for momentum entry. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately.