njmanura

Bitcoin is in a clear downtrend and below key moving averages like 20 WEMA, 34WEMA and below EMA ribbon and below previous low which is 98k. Now it is forming and ascending wedge pattern on 4H time frame which is very bearish. Fundamentally DATs are cooked, No ETF inflows (Mainly outflows), Whales still selling, Gold took the crown of hedge for money printing and with tokenized gold it becomes clear bitcoins narrative has being proven wrong. Until people accept bitcoin as a proper hedge downtrend will continue. Probably can buy bitcoin once Strategy start selling.

My previous posts had some ambivalence. But now the bear market is confirmed by daily closing below this rising wedge pattern. Treasury companies started to sell their bitcoin to cover losses. Market makers are rekt following Oct 10 the crash. US retail is more focused on AI stocks hence continuous ETF outflows. Bitcoin is also closed below weekly 21 and 34 EMA. Checks all bearish indicators.

Bitcoin despite continuous bad news such as whale selling, cycle end theories and bad sentiment, holding higher lows. In addition, it is above 34 weekly EMA. It will go above ATH one more time. At that time think of shorting. Now bullish. Nov, Dec Santa clause and Halloween effects are good for risk assets.

RSI is oversold, ETH is at the support. Everyone in Twitter is Bearish. A short term bounce to 4200 is on the cards. Then we will continue the dump.

Contrary to current bearish views bitcoin might have bottomed. This clear diagonal line was broken, it is always messy in early trend reversals. Bitcoin is respecting these diagonal lines more than horizontal lines.

Bitcoin clearly broken below this bear flag and retested lower line. Invalidation is close above 120k.

This head and shoulder pattern may push price to 95k. At 95k we have weekly moving average bands and they will act as support. But as recent history suggest it will be a very choppy downward move.

Bitcoin has broken out from its downward channel. I changed my bearish view to cautiously bullish. Broader market also digested the trump tariffs and US federal reserve has starting to ease despite high inflation to counter short term effects of tariffs. FED also started slowing its balance sheet reduction from April and more rate cuts are planned in 2025. US favorable environment for crypto helps generally for bitcoin and other crypto to rally. Only issue is TradFi markets may see more downside due to reduced earnings due to tariffs which would drag bitcoin with it.

We will take one of two paths. Anyway bearish and bottom may be at 69k - 72k.

Elliot wave counts from one year back makes it clear we are at the end of 5 wave. This cycle is mainly driven by US economy, all moves comes during US trading hours. There is very little retail participation in bitcoin trades, they are all in meme coins and altcoins. There is bearish sentiment in retail participants, but extremely bullish sentiment in US cooperate buyers, esp Micheal Saylor and others. Fundamentally also Trump trade is over. What trump did was to ease regulation which takes time to reflect in the market. His bitcoin reserve regulation does not buy bitcoins from market. In addition, by way of launching several meme coins he made his intentions clear (To extract as much money as possible from retail investors). Lower time frame chart wise it made an SFP or Swing failure pattern, made new lower highs and lows. Supposedly good news did not make into rallies. In Macro, central banks are re tightening monetary policy across the board. It seems only Saylor is buying bitcoin to avoid it crashing and closing below support. How long can he do that. He is also doing it by issuing more and more debt. More bitcoins he buys in these prices his average buy price increases. Closing and trading below his avg price for longer can make MicroStrategy bankrupt which would be disastrous to bitcoin.