njmanura

This head and shoulder pattern may push price to 95k. At 95k we have weekly moving average bands and they will act as support. But as recent history suggest it will be a very choppy downward move.

Bitcoin has broken out from its downward channel. I changed my bearish view to cautiously bullish. Broader market also digested the trump tariffs and US federal reserve has starting to ease despite high inflation to counter short term effects of tariffs. FED also started slowing its balance sheet reduction from April and more rate cuts are planned in 2025. US favorable environment for crypto helps generally for bitcoin and other crypto to rally. Only issue is TradFi markets may see more downside due to reduced earnings due to tariffs which would drag bitcoin with it.

We will take one of two paths. Anyway bearish and bottom may be at 69k - 72k.

Elliot wave counts from one year back makes it clear we are at the end of 5 wave. This cycle is mainly driven by US economy, all moves comes during US trading hours. There is very little retail participation in bitcoin trades, they are all in meme coins and altcoins. There is bearish sentiment in retail participants, but extremely bullish sentiment in US cooperate buyers, esp Micheal Saylor and others. Fundamentally also Trump trade is over. What trump did was to ease regulation which takes time to reflect in the market. His bitcoin reserve regulation does not buy bitcoins from market. In addition, by way of launching several meme coins he made his intentions clear (To extract as much money as possible from retail investors). Lower time frame chart wise it made an SFP or Swing failure pattern, made new lower highs and lows. Supposedly good news did not make into rallies. In Macro, central banks are re tightening monetary policy across the board. It seems only Saylor is buying bitcoin to avoid it crashing and closing below support. How long can he do that. He is also doing it by issuing more and more debt. More bitcoins he buys in these prices his average buy price increases. Closing and trading below his avg price for longer can make MicroStrategy bankrupt which would be disastrous to bitcoin.

Reclaim of this channel will be bullish. With trumps inauguration around January 20, we may see bullish price action. But once he inaugurated we may see a crash (Sell the news)

This trend line is quite accurate as I have predicted in my previous post, we dumped into lower support. We may see a bounce towards 110K.

Bitcoin has been on a relentless run. Helped by manic buys of Micheal Saylor. Only he can break this channel. Otherwise we can goto 97k, and still be insanely bullish.

These high timeframe rising wedges don't end well.

break of downward channel and retested the trendline. RSI trendline also retested the trendline. For geopolitics, whatever the rhetoric and media says Game theory is playing out between Israel and Iran. I don't think Israel will attack Iran in a way that can cause escalation of the conflict.

Once you see this you cannot unsee this. Bitcoin cannot be bullish unless this channel is broken.