josip

Strategic Bitcoin reserve is being prepared. whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/

Yeah, It's going up forever. Everyone will copy MSTR and include BTC in their reserves. Valuing companies will be much much simpler on Bitcoin standard. This will contribute to the efficiency of society immensly.Good luck!Bitcoin on exchanges is drying up, and a big contributor of permanently locked Bitcoin is Michael Saylor. That's the Bitcoin that's never getting into circulation again XD coinglass.com/BalanceNooooobody expects the Saylor acquisition! youtube.com/watch?v=QqreRufrkxMTornado and smart contract sanctions are deemed illegal by the court. This is a big change. Ivan on tech: youtube.com/watch?v=jAvt_W_hc3QYou cannot play fiat games in the Bitcoin world with Microstrategy. If Bitcoin is at 50vol and MSTR is at 100 or 150 vol, you need to hedge your MSTR shorts with 2x or 3x fiat entering the Bitcoin. Bitcoin sensitivity is 10/1, meaning that for every 33B you put into Bitcoin, the market cap goes up 30B. You are shorting MSTR and hedging with senior asset. On paper, you are shorting 1/100th of MSTR and longing 30/2000 BTC, which is roughly a 1/15 MSTR/BTC ratio. That's still fine if you ignore the fact that the premium is usually over 70%. You can't do that in the Bitcoin world because price is determined on the margin, and the margin at the moment includes only 2.5M Bitcoin available on exchanges, which is consistently dropping. This means that MSTR can soon easily have over 50% of circulating supply of Bitcoin, the rest are long term holders. On top of that, MSTR is essentially "burning" BTC because there are no mechanisms that will force MSTR to sell (at least not before 2029). The bond holders will constantly hedge in order to get stable returns, but they are leaving the rest of the profits to the Bitcoiners because MSTR will just recycle the premium into Bitcoin, which it also personally holds. If these ratios are correct (the balance between new liquidity coming in, and price sensitivity), you cannot hedge MSTR efficiently, meaning that MSTR is turning both long and short capital into a long capital ram pump. On top of that, for every 10% that MSTR moves BTC price up, only 5% can go down in case of a bear market. According to me, and Chat GPT, MSTR accounts for 30-40% of the Bitcoin market on the margin this bull run, and a total of 100B by MSTR and IBIT pushed the market cap of Bitcoin by 1T. The thing is, even though so little actual capital is tied up to this immense market cap, about 30% of it or more (basically MSTR purchases) is only tied up in upwards direction but not downwards through MSTR debt. Now, that's not perfect because it's still debt, but we are frontrunning. On top of that, all the "hedging" that these big institutions are doing are providing even more flooring for MSTR and for BTC. I am expecting that this bull run, all of the corrections will be only 60% as large than compared to the last bull run. Meaning that a 50% correction will now be more like a 30% correction, and 30% correction will be a 20% correction.I just want to add that I mentioned exchanges, but I forgot to mention OTC. I can only track what's happening on exchanges, unfortunately, I have no idea about the OTC market.Price is 100% manipulated. There is no Bitcoin in circulation, which means that Wall Street is determining the price while the NYSE is closed. How do I know? I've been watching MSTR-BTC relation. BTC always comes back to the neutral price from the previous daily close of MSTR in order to make a discrepancy as small as possible. Since there is a severe lack of retail investors, basically, Wall Street is using algos to force 15min and 1hr candles up and down in order to scoop some reflexivity one way or the other. Since they are gambling with other peoples money, they have to put Bitcoin price back in place where it was once the market opens, so that MSTR or MSTR holders wouldn't have any extra opportunities to kill their positions. It's a big club, and you ain't in it. But it's just temporary and their power is limited to 5% up/down + they can extend the sideways movement for some sustained periods of time like weeks, or in case of 68k, a couple of months. This is just to earn money on option decay and option premiums, nothing more. They are basically scamming their own investors by showing the wrong Bitcoin price, because now they account for most of the market and they have good models of relation between actual capital inflows and price sensitivity (I have discussed this relation in previous posts). So, we have to remain patient until they implode. But there is no Bitcoin.Now we have a beautiful candle as a proof of manipulation lol. MSTR shorts are off the chart btw XD The squeeze will be legendary (unless wall street just makes their friends exit during closed hours like with GME stock). They basically just put their names in front of your orders...

ETH was a disappointment, and I can bet that the next wave of liquidity will be whales dumping ETH on their holders and swapping it for Bitcoin. :=))

We are slowly approaching a technical nonsense territory... "Breaking from the downwards channel" "Swing trading the upwards channel" and similar degenerate strategies may soon become a thing. After breaking an ATH, we are entering the uncharted territory. Legends will be guided by the ghosts of technical analysis. The truth is, the best strategy will be to buy and hold.Do I even need to post anymore? Does anyone care?

I have noticed that there is a big discrepancy between the price of Bitcoin and MSTR. I haven't checked how the trading volumes compare, but my guess is that this arbitrage should have a noticable impact on increasing the Bitcoin price, until the prices of MSTR and Bitcoin find each other in the middle. The "Middle" is dependent on the price discrepancy and total volume discrepancy.There is the spikeOh boy how immensely accurate I am :)At 65 800, I'm closing my MSTR (@ $215) and MSTX (@ $44) options. I will be rolling this into MSTR stocks and pure Bitcoin over time. I also bought 1 more MTCH option (for a total of 3). I see no more good opportinities in the near future.

I am not a big DOGE guy, but aside from Bitcoin, it is one of rare crypto meme coins with some credibility. Of course, the whole market is driven by Bitcoin, however, Doge provides more leverage without risk of liquidation due to excessive leverage. I expect that Doge will reach over $0.2 when Bitcoin passes 70k again.Good time to get out.Good time to re-enter

Nice time to leverage BTCRed line liquidation, blue line entry.It's 25x. I also leveraged some Doge at the same time at 40x but I'm not sure what will my exit strategy be so I didn't post.At 120% profit in Doge and 45% profit in BTC, I am reducing 30% of Doge and 20% of BTCWell, this one was a mistake. Stop loss triggered during the night and I'm exiting this at 30% loss. Unfortunately, market is too volatile now for any leveraged bet. It's best to keep it in a hardware wallet for the rest of the bull run.

I only have Bitcoin but I believe that there is a lag between Bitcoin Price and Doge price, where Doge price action is behind Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now at 44500 and doge is at it's local bottom. I am willing to make a small but leveraged (long) bet on Dogecoin. It is unlikely that doge will go below 0.7 in the near future.Comment: One of the best bets ever lol Still going...Comment: Made tons of money, I'm pulling out early before the bloodbath begins. 80% of profits are going to Bitcoin and 20% of my bet stays for the YOLO in hopes that I will sell at the top (extremely risky and unlikely). Bitcoin is the big daddy destroyer of central banks, new reserve asset, bankster widowmaker.Trade closed manually

Perfect Short Again Unregistered security... Charles Hoskinson is not getting out of this...

Great opportunity to buy some more BTC - My take on the FED It is possible that BTC will go to 20 000 and maybe even below that, but chasing the bottom is not the smartest idea. This is the opportunity that we've been waiting for. Everyone wanted to buy BTC if only it was a little cheaper. Well, now it is, but everyone is scared :) The wise words of Peter Lynch are that NOBODY can predict the bottom, and nobody can predict anything within a year or two. What we can see is that Bitcoin demonstrated more than 2x higher demand than this. Even though the Crypto market wasn't positively affected by inflation, you have to remember that in macroeconomics some trends require even years to settle even though the signs were obvious. Everyone with some common sense could tell that inflation was going to be massive if we just looked at the money supply increase of 2020 and 2021, let alone 2022. But what everyone forgot is that, according to Milton Friedman, real-world effects of inflation go in phases. In the first 6 months, there is some "positive" effect on the economy, due to the massive inflow of currency in the system. Also, keep in mind that inflation is felt IMMEDIATELY in the stocks and bonds. The very second money printing starts. But 18 months after that, the effects of inflation are first felt. Keep in mind that this statistic puts just the start of 2020 inflation at the beggining of 2022. So the inflation will keep at this pace for at least the next 2 years with yearly inflation of 15-30%. The fact that federal reserve is increasing interest rate will NOT get the inflation under control. Restraining inflation that way never worked long term. It can only create short term FUD and selling. What happens with the money that people withdraw from their overinflated accounts after 2 years of 20+% gains on S&P500? They start to spend it, because inflation is not under control. What happens then? Inflation becomes even worse. It takes some money fot the money to come back, usually a couple months to a year. The money in the system will just switch places from fictional (stocks, index and funds) into real life (food, housing, services). 90% of the money that FED has been "printing" for the past 2 years didn't even enter the real life. It was fictional. It was conserved in the markets. Real life effects therefore weren't noticable until recently, when people started cashing in. Interest rates on bonds will NOT be enough for any average investor. Bonds are only used as a small percentage of portfolios for hedging some risks in the markets. This text is also the reason why the FED should NEVER interfere with monetary policy, and shouldn't exist at all. All of these money printing and recession cycles are exploiting the human need to gamble. They will crash the system at random intervals. They will overinflate it when nobody expects it. You will enter the trades even after it's been going up for too long. You probably got burned 5 times before that by trying to short it because it was rational. You can be 100% correct and still lose money. And you will lose money both ways.Comment: I just wanted to add: Catalyst Even though the current inflation didn't drive BTC (and crypto in general) up, the main reason for this short term termoil has been precisely timend and is indeed caused by the federal reserve increasing interest rates. The main catalyst for the crypto market will be painful realization of the public that, not only did they lose money in the market, but the inflation only got worse and worse. In fact, it will be biblical. Precisely because only now that the markets are selling off the actual printed money is entering the real economy and will drive prices up and up and up and up and up. Timing this market will be extremely difficult so DO NOT USE LEVERAGE. I often get away with leverage, but I'm using 0 leverage at the moment. Find as much liquidity as you can, and keep buying while people are fearful. You will start losing money immediately short term, but you will lose even more money if you don't do this. This IS financial advice.Comment: I'm moving 100% of all my assets and savings into Bitcoin. By the end of 2023. I will close all my bank accounts forever. Also migrating all my business to the Bitcoin standard. The race is over, Bitcoin won.