jmorg387

DOGE is in the midst of its 3rd advance and along the way, technical analysis has been a helpful guide to consider when understanding directionally what price will do. Included below are a few ways to consider what DOGE price action might look like from here. As a starting point, if wedges are your thing, then clearly you ascribe to the view that DOGE has broken out. I think even taking a step back a few things are important:DOGE has meaningful momentum behind current price action - that can be seen in the middle section (MFI - money flow index) where the indicator is accelerating off of very low momentum and trending higher (weekly timeframe).Bollinger band width is narrowing to historical lows, which could eventually be the catalyst for the necessary volatility needed for DOGE to return to or exceed prior ATH.Cup and handle measured moveFar right part of the cup ($0.50) minus the trough of said cup ($0.05) puts DOGE at about $1.00.Rectangle price target$0.50 high, $0.05 low - a measured move from a breakout of the rectangle, puts DOGE at $0.95Fibonacci RetracementGiven momentum and potential increase of vol, a retracement to prior ATH of $0.76 seems likely, a pause and continuation of the advance higher would put DOGE near $1.20. Historical behavior In the most speculative phases of DOGE’s history parabolic advances have produced 8,000 and 20,000 percent gains - 8,000 percent takes DOGE to $15 or a market cap of $2.3 trillion. Seems rather unlikely for that to occur, as BTC has a market cap of about $2.2 trillion today. However, see next chart.BTC at 200,000 and a breakout of the wedge pattern to 0.000075 = $15 for DOGE. That suddenly doesn’t seem to unrealistic, plus crypto is nuts - who knows how high DOGE can climb?What could carry the price over the next year?Midterm elections will matter. I suspect the Trump administration will do everything possible to retain control of DC and that means pro-cyclical policy – which is being negotiated in Washington – and possibly deregulation – the combination of the two could combine a powerful tailwind to the US economy between now and midterms in 2026. Not only does this keep people employed and, in turn, spending, but it also keeps asset prices high. If investors feel emboldened by a rosy outlook (which consumer confidence is rising and investors are becoming less bearish) then risk-taking can increase. DOGE ETF. That appears to be happening and could provide a meaningful source for demand. X integrates DOGE as base layer payment currency. That doesn’t seem all that unrealistic, DOGE has a fascinating culture - I think Musk has made it clear he loves that - and, more importantly, DOGE is a very fast, low-cost technology that is particularly good for use in small payments. Which, like the DOGE ETF, could provide a source of demand for DOGE coins. What could derail the advance? A sudden and unexpected shock to the global economy - that seems unlikely since bank lending is rising, the prospects for tariffs have subsided as the Trump Put (reversing course on tariffs on April 9th) has been reached. Beyond 2026, obviously, a grid-locked DC could stymy the ability for the Trump administration to pursues its agenda. And should there be economic weakness, well, the 2028 election will be momentous for the crypto space. DEMS will feel emboldened to reverse Trump’s policy agenda and that means some headwinds to crypto. ConclusionI am long DOGE at $0.223 - I think downside is limited to $0.19, and while that is meaningfully lower from current levels, I think the backdrop spelled out above would mean any weakness is buyable. My targets are prior ATH, breakout to $1, and from there, much more challenging to consider today - this is a moving target.See link for more details (charts really): open.substack.com/pub/icontext/p/some-thoughts-on-doge?r=1lrcm8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true